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DFS DegeNation Week 11 Playsheet

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We have been recording the DFS DegenNation Podcast for the last two seasons and we have discussed putting out a piece on our favorite plays. Well, we finally decided to make it a reality. For the rest of the season and the playoffs, we will produce this piece. We have pooled together the three members of the pod and our other three DFS contributors to give you a one-stop shop piece. We will be giving you our favorite cash, GPP, value plays, and stacks. We will also give you one player to fade and a bold prediction.

Be sure to tune in to the pod every week and rate and review the show on Itunes, Stitcher, Podbean, Google Play, or any other major Podcast App. Also, we have a FREE slack chat setup for the podcast. If you’re interested in joining, reach out to me on Twitter (@FantasyWrath13) or the podcast (@DegenationPod) and we will get you into the slack.

Now with that out of the way here is the Week 11 playsheet!

Contributors:

JR Reynolds (@JR_Reynolds17)

Matty Dickason (@Matty_D_30)

Darren Clark (@DC_Corner3)

Ryan Williams (RyanAlexander_W)

Jen Smith (@theonlyJenSmith)

Kevin Steele (@FantasyWrath13) + honorable mentions.

*All Pricing is based off Draftkings pricing.

Cash Game Locks

Dak Prescott ($5200) vs Falcons – He has been putting up a solid fantasy season so far and I think that can continue this week against Atlanta. Prescott’s $5,200 salary opens up a lot of flexibility for the rest of your roster, especially if you want to pay up all the way for Zach Ertz at tight end given the lack of options this week. Prescott has posted 15+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and I think he could be in for another fantasy friendly performance.  – JR

David Johnson ($7500) vs Raiders – Johnson is still not priced high enough on either site. In the two games under Leftwich, he has seen 20 and 30 total opportunities. He has been known as a TD machine in prior years and is finally rounding back into the DJ we came to love. He now gets a home matchup with the Oakland Raiders who are giving up the most rushing yards per game to opposing RBs. – Matty D

David Johnson $7,500 – Under new OC Byron Leftwich the Cardinals are doing a better job of getting DJ in space & the results have shown up in the box score as DJ has at least 100 scrimmage yards since the switch.  A home matchup against a Raiders team that has pretty much given up defensively is as good as it gets for DJ. – DC

Ezekiel Elliot ($8500) vs Falcons – How can you not love Zeke this week? They face a Falcons defense that has been gashed all year on the ground and through the air against opposing backs. The Falcons have allowed the most DK points to running backs and rank 31st in run DVOA. While there is some concern about games script and the explosive Falcons offense at home, Zeke has received 16 targets his last three games which is 11th most. With all things considered, Zeke makes for an elite play in both cash and GPPs and will be in 50% of all my lineups this week. – Kevin

Saquon Barkley ($8700) vs Giants – When I think of cash game lock, I think of the running back position. I’m loving this week because I finally get to go all-in on Saquon Barkley on the main slate in a “nuts” matchup. Let’s not even consider the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are allowing the third most rushing TDs to opposing running backs, but Saquon literally has a floor of 20 (higher on DK) and has only one game this season of 20 carries. He’s so efficient on his runs and because he plays on the Giants he should avoid the fear of being in a blowout. There’s no one else in the backfield to take carries away from him. He not only gets it down on the ground but catching passes out of the backfield. All of these reasons are why Barkley is my favorite overall play, and cash game lock of Week 11. – Ryan

Christian McCaffrey ($8000) vs Lions – Yes, David Johnson is also a cash lock for me, but I can’t let this section wrap up without mentioning one of my other fav locks, CMC. This is a player who gets an average of 19.6 touches per game, including at least 4-6 targets. Here is where he’s finished in overall RB fantasy points the last three weeks in PPR: 9th, 3rd, and 2nd. McCaffrey scored over 30 DK fantasy points the last two weeks and I don’t see why it should be any different this week facing the struggling Detroit Lions. The Lions are 25th in overall defense DVOA (explanation here from Fantasy Outsiders if you aren’t familiar with this metric)and 29th in rush DVOA. Let’s put it this way, they aren’t good. If Detroit gave up at least 75 yards and a TD to Chris Carson, Dalvin Cook + Latavius Murray, and Tarik Cohen/Jordan Howard over the last three weeks, I’m confident in Christian’s floor. His ceiling? Well the only RB in his tier that Detroit has faced is Zeke. He scored 37 DK fantasy points. Oh, and not that we cared before, but no more CJ Anderson either. – Jen

GPP Plays

 

Golden Tate ($5500) vs Saints – He was irrelevant in his debut with the Eagles, and hopefully, that performance remains fresh in the heads of the general public. Recency bias could force them to ignore that Tate will draw one of the best matchups on the board against Saints slot cornerback P.J. Williams. Williams has been ripped apart by opposing offenses this season and it looks like it could be Tate’s turn to be the beneficiary. – JR

Michael Thomas ($8800) vs Eagles – Thomas has fantasy point totals of 42, 32, 11 and 42 at home this year. The Saints have scored less than 30 points only twice all year. Now they get a matchup against an Eagles defense that is extremely injury riddled. The Eagles still have a high powered offense that will force the Saints to push the ball. In a week where everyone wants to pay down at QB and WR to fit in the stud RBs, paying up for Thomas should be contrarian and he has arguably the highest ceiling on the slate in my favorite game of the slate. – Matty D

T.Y. Hilton ($6,100) vs Titans – Hilton hasn’t quite had that huge game where he just goes off for 7/150/2 yet this season but we all know it’s coming. This week he’ll be running plenty of routes at turnstile corner Malcolm Butler and slow-footed slot man Logan Ryan. The Titans have pretty strong safety play & have done a good job limiting tight ends which should force Luck to push the ball downfield & outside the numbers where T.Y. should feast. – DC

Odell Beckham Jr ($8400) vs Buccaneers – Over his past three weeks, Beckham has scored at least 23.3 DK points on 33 targets and ranks 9th in points per touch with 3.48. This week the Giants head home to face a Buccaneers secondary that has allowed the most DK points to the position and rank 30th in pass DVOA. While most will want to pay up for running backs this week, one way to get a little contrarian is paying up for wide receivers. Beckham ranks 3rd in the league with a 29% targets share as air yards (42%). His volume and big-play ability make him a solid pivot off of Michael Thomas this week. – Kevin

Amari Cooper ($5400) vs Falcons – The funny thing is that with his usage rate (18 targets the last two games), price, and match-up, Cooper should probably be in cash consideration as well as GPP. However, he still plays for run-first Dallas and didn’t snag a TD last week (though caught six passes for 75 yards). So, he has a safe floor for a guy at this price, but we are of course looking for his ceiling. And if we are going to see it, I think this is the match-up for it. Atlanta ranks 30th in DVOA against WR1s so far this season and 29th for overall pass defense. They’ve given up at least one TD to the WR position in every week besides Week 1. If you’re paying up for RB this week, I think it’s guys like Cooper, Sterling Shepard, Larry Fitzgerald, and Nelson Agholor that might give you the upside you need at WR, but at a discounted price. – Jen

Honorable Mentions:

QB:

Carson Wentz – Over his past six games he has thrown for 275 yards and multiple touchdowns a week and faces a defense that is a true pass funnel. The Eagles are -8.5 underdogs against the Saints, which sets up well for Wentz to throw early and often.

RB:

Christian McCaffrey – He’s scored at least 30 DK points in each of his last two contests and has become a true bell cow back. He is averaging 21 opportunities (15 rush/6 targets) in each of his last weeks and gets to face a Lions defense that has been hammered on the ground all season. While many will want to pay up for Gordon, Barkley, Zeke, or Kamara, CMC makes for a solid pivot and some salary relief while providing the same upside as the four other backs.

Kerryon Johnson – Volume matters most in anything related to fantasy football. That’s not groundbreaking news. Since Week 7 Johnson is 9th in carries and 6th in targets and at a $5800 price tag on Draftkings makes him one of the more interesting GPP plays at the position. He’s seeing the volume of an RB1 but is priced as an RB2. I do admit this isn’t a fantastic matchup for him on paper, it’s hard to ignore the price tag and his usage in the passing game. He’s turned into more of a bell cow back which isn’t something you typically find in the 5k range on DK.

WR:

Kenny Golladay – This one is pretty simple. He’s the only target left for Matthew Stafford. Marvin Jones is out this week and Golden Tate was traded. He should see 12-15 targets this week and is only $5800 on Dratkings. If there was a week to go nuclear, this seems like the week. I’ll have a decent amount of exposure to him in tournaments due in large part because of his massive target share in the offense.

Corey Davis – If I haven’t made it clear enough, I love the Titans this week in GPPs. They seem to be finally putting everything together and this game has a point total of 49. Corey Davis finally had a big game last week against the Patriots. He hauled in 7-of-10 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown. There is nothing about this matchup that scares me for Davis and with so few options in the passing game, he should be peppered with targets. We have seen QBs like Blake Bortles and Derek Carr in recent weeks torch this defense, there is zero reason to believe that the Titans can’t have their way with them through the air.

Larry Fitzgerald – Has averaged 9.5 targets over his last four games and gets on of his best matchups of the week against the Raiders. No reason to overthink this. If you aren’t playing David Johnson, I have no problem getting exposure to this game through Larry Fitzgerald or Ricky Seals-Jones.

Amari Cooper – He has one of the best matchups on the slate against a Falcons defense that allows the 3rd most points to the position. He has seen 18 targets the last two weeks and should once again see plenty of volume come his way. He’s another player whose price is a bit too low for his upside. If you’re paying up for RB this week, targets any of the wide receivers in this range make a ton of sense due in large part because of their matchup.

TE:

Zach Ertz – There’s not much to say here. He’s getting WR1 volume but is priced as a WR2 and at a position like TE where it has been a dumpster fire, Ertz is in a fantastic spot this week. If you’re playing Wentz I would much rather pair him Ertz than any of the WRs. It’s going to be hard to pin down which WR will have a big game on a week-to-week basis. I would much rather follow the targets and fire up Ertz even at his $6600 price.

 

Favorite Value Plays

 

Theo Riddick ($4000) vs Panthers – Riddick looks to have found his footing again in the Lions offense. Even with Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount taking the majority of the carries, Riddick has been able to carve out a pass-catching role with Golden Tate now a member of the Eagles. He has posted double-digit fantasy points in back to back weeks with hopes for a third this week against Carolina. Add in the fact that Marvin Jones Jr. has a chance to miss this week’s contest and Riddick could be looking at a few more targets thrown his way on Sunday.  – JR Reynolds

Nelson Agholor ($4100) vs Saints – He is basically free on both sites. 4100 on DK and 5300 on FD. I am hoping the addition of Tate scares people off Agholor. In Tate’s first game with the Eagles, he only ran 9 of his 15 routes from the slot (60%), meanwhile, Agholor still ran 70% of his routes from the slot and even led the team in air yards. Tate saw very limited snaps because the Eagles were forced to go more up-tempo while playing from behind and Tate didn’t know the verbal play calls. In a game that the Saints should force the Eagles to play a ton of hurry up, I expect Tate’s role to increase, but not enough to affect Agholor and his juicy matchup vs PJ Williams. – Matty D

Jared Cook ($3,900) vs Cardinals – There aren’t a ton of obvious value plays this week but Cook stands out at $3,900. The Raiders pass-catching corps is depleted. Amari is gone. Martavis is out. Jordy is banged up & likely out or playing at well less than 100%. Seth Roberts is #bad. Brandon LaFell is old & not good in his own right. That leaves Cook as the last man standing. Coming off a 10 target week I’d expect more of the same for Cook this week. Don’t be afraid to run a 2 TE lineup with Ertz either as they both project for solid target volume at their respective prices. – DC

Mark Ingram ($4700) vs Eagles – I’m pissed Matty stole my Agholor play. I am as close to locking him in as I am to Barkley and Michael Thomas. I don’t want to piggyback here so I’m going to say, Mark Ingram. I know I may get scoffed at, but one of my favorite things to do is to get exposure to high total games with low priced skill position players who will be on the field. Say what you will about Mark Ingram’s usage but he still has a distinct role on this team (seeing at least 40% of the snaps in every game he’ll be back). I love this play the most on FanDuel where playing three running backs is optimal. This play is GPPs only, but you will get an incredible edge on the field if Ingram is vulturing TDs from Kamara as we saw in Washington game. – Ryan

Doug Martin ($4500) vs Cardinals – Advocating for any Raider is tough. The Raiders have been an absolute train wreck this season. So playing Doug Martin is high risk but also high reward. However, this week the Raiders take on a Cardinals defense that has been thrashed on the ground. The Cardinals have allowed the 5th most DK points (30.9) to opposing backs. They have also allowed the third most rushing yards(1,134) and second most touchdowns (11) on the season. Martin himself has been efficient since taking over for Marshawn Lynch. He’s averaged 15 touches per game, 4.67 YPC, and is 11th in yards after contact (2.92) over the last three weeks.

With all the high priced backs receiving so much attention this week, Doug Martin makes for a solid value play at running back who has 20+ DK point upside. I mean, does anyone really think the Cardinals offense is going to steamroll the Raiders? If game script is close for the Raiders, Martin could surpass the 15 touches he’s seen the last three weeks making him one of the best value plays on the slate.

Demaryius Thomas ($4900) vs Redskins – The Houston Texans might fly under the radar this week with so many studs and juicy match-ups. Washington is middle-of-the-pack regarding their pass defense, at 17th according to Fantasy Outsiders. DT caught three for 61 yards in his debut as a Texans last week vs Denver and he’s had the bye week to learn more of the playbook. We still aren’t sure if Keke Coutee will be active, but I still like DT at this price and in this matchup regardless. Their last three contests, Washington gave up 221, 237 and 2 TDS, and 218 yards to the WR position. I like Hopkins here too, but if you’re paying up at QB or RB this week, you’re going to need guys like DT to hit value + have upside. Washington is banged up on both sides of the ball, including their receiving corps, so I think the Texans handle the Redskins on the road in Week 11. –Jen

Honorable Mentions:

QB: 

Dak Prescott – The Cowboys offense has turned things around since acquiring Amari Cooper. Prescott has scored 21.7 DK points three of the last four weeks and figures to be in line for another strong performance against a Falcons defense that has struggled to stop opposing QBs.

Lamar Jackson – He’s 4700 and will square off against a Bengals defense that has allowed the most DK points to QBs this season. We know how athletic Jackson is and could easily run for 100 yards and get you the DK bonus. IF Jackson gets the start, it also boosts Alex Collins because the Ravens will likely lean on their running game and their stifling defense. While his ownership may be a bit higher than I would like, you can’t ignore his upside in this matchup.

RB:

Dion Lewis – I thought about writing him up as my favorite value running back this week. He’s likely going to carry heavy ownership in a game with sneaky shootout potential. Lewis has separated himself in the backfield and should be in line for 15-20 touches against the Colts. The Colts rank 20th in rushing yards allowed (92.2) and 8 receptions per game to the position. If you’re looking to pay down at running back this week, I would start with Lewis and his 21.3 touches he’s averaged the last three weeks.

Alex Collins – As mentioned above with Lamar Jackson, whether he or Robert Griffin III gets the start, we can expect a heavy dosage of Alex Collins in this matchup. The Ravens with Flacco have been the most pass-heavy offense in the league. Now, without Flacco, you can bet they will lean more on their rushing attack. Collins has yet to surpass 20 DK points on the season which makes him more of a GPP play.

Josh Adams – This is a true shot in the dart with Josh Adams. He’s seen an increased workload the last three weeks and looks like the best back in the Eagles backfield. His situation reminds me a bit of Aaron Jones. Jones was behind Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery before finally being inserted as the lead back. At $3200, he can easily get on top of that price tag in a game that figures to be the highest on the slate.

WR:

Courtland Sutton – The last time Sutton was on the slate he was very chalky after coming off the matchup against the Texans the trade of Demaryius Thomas. Fresh off their bye, Sutton to take a step forward as the WR1 in the offense. Sutton has at least 50 yards or a TD in six straight weeks and is underpriced for his likely target share and role in the offense.

Tre’Quan Smith – We continue chasing Tre’Quan Smith and his massive upside as the deep ball threat in the Saints explosive offense. Smith hasn’t been much of a factor since his Week 5 explosion against the Redskins. In the five games since then, Smith hasn’t surpassed 10 DK points, however, Smith is a solid option value play this week tethered to Drew Brees and their 32 implied point total.

TE:

Jordan Reed – Seeing Jordan Reed at $3800 makes him tough to ignore. The Redskins will face the Texans who have allowed the 10th most DK points to the position on the season. With so many injuries to their WR group, this could be the week that Reed finally finds the end zone again. At his price, I’ll certainly have some interest in him.

Ricky Seals-Jones – Since Week 6, is third on the team in targets, routes run, and receptions and is fresh off of a week with five catches and 51 yards. This week he faces a defense that has allowed 6 touchdowns (third-most) to tight ends.

Jonnu Smith – He’s scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and will face a Colts defense that has allowed the 5th most receptions and yards to the position. While Smith hasn’t seen much in terms of volume or even snaps he is getting looks inside the red zone and at the TE position is as good as gold.

 

Top Stack:

Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Dak Prescott/Amari Cooper – Dak Prescott seems to have locked in on Amari Cooper as his primary target in the receiver’s first two games with the Cowboys. A Prescott/Cooper stack is very affordable and should allow you to fit in any two high priced studs pretty easily. – JR Reynolds

Wentz(FD)/Brees(DK)/Thomas/Agholor/Kamara – I know it seems like I am all in on Saints/Eagles, and that’s because I am. Both defenses are known as top run defenses who are pass funnels. Both offenses have extremely explosive passing attacks. This game should shootout, and while everyone is possibly paying down for Lamar Jackson, I want to pay up for the QBs and the studs in this one. My top stack is Wentz (FD)/Brees(DK), Thomas, Agholor, and Kamara. Getting exposure to both Kamara and Thomas could lock you into 4 TDs. – Matty D

Andrew Luck/T.Y. Hilton/Dion Lewis – I mentioned my love for T.Y. above & my love also extends to his quarterback. Andrew Luck is considerably underpriced considering his recent string of six 22+ DK point games. Luck is playing behind what is perhaps the league’s best offensive lines and hasn’t been sacked in four straight games.

After last week’s dud, I’m willing to go right back to Dion here. Lewis out touched Derrick Henry 22-11 despite a heavily positive game script that should have benefited Henry. The Colts play exclusively a zone defense which should cede plenty of easy targets for Lewis.

Marcus Mariota/Corey Davis/T.Y. Hilton – I spoke on the pod this week how Marcus Mariota is one of my favorite point-per-dollar plays of the week. If you’re looking for a cheap stack, look no further than Marcus Mariota and the Titans. The Colts have allowed the 12th most points to QBs on the season and after a hot start, have been burned by Derek Carr and Blake Bortles the last two weeks. As for the Titans, they have really started to put things together offensively. Mariota has back-to-back 20+ DK point outings and has built a rapport with Corey Davis. – Kevin

Lamar Jackson-Alex Collins-Ravens DST – Yup, I went there. I love some of the stacks already mentioned (and if you saw my earlier responses, you’ll know I love a Watson-Hopkins/DT-Texas DST stack too) but I’ll just go for the swing since no one else might want to stomach it. Joe Flacco was finally officially ruled out and Jackson named the starter against a Bengals defense that has hemorrhaged points to every skill position this season. So, if you want to make this a super stack and add John Brown here, I’m not going to say a thing to stop you. Without AJ Green (doubtful to play Sunday), Dalton and the offense also have struggled mightily. This sets up a great game script for Collins and the Ravens DST, as they’ll most likely lean more on their running back with Lamar under center and should lead this one. This is a great stack not just because of their perceived ceiling in this matchup, but really because of what it allows me to do with the rest of my roster. Without giving you my complete lineup, just know that with these three locked in, you’ll have $6200 per position left in DK. You’re welcome. Risky, but this is DFS. Take a swing. –Jen

Eli-Barkley-Shepard – I cannot get away from a Giants stack this week. Which probably means my bankroll will either skyrocket or plummet dramatically. It doesn’t make me feel good that Checkdown Alex Smith just put up a dud vs Tampa, but prior to their defense had given up 20 DK points to opposing QBs in every game since week 2. Eli is 8th in the league in pass attempts so he should have ample opportunities to put up points.

You combine that with a Saquon Barkley who is legitimately matchup proof. This defense was annihilated by Mixon for 31.8 DK points and McCaffrey for 32.7 DK points in Week 9 so I can only project Barkley for similar production. And then Sterling Shepard in a great bounce-back spot as Ian Hartitz on Twitter alluded to this week – Ryan

 

Fades

Deshaun Watson ($5700) vs Redskins – Watson and the Texans will head to Washington this week looking for their seventh straight win. For me at least, I think the Texans could be in for some tough sledding against the Washington defense. After being shredded by the Falcons two weeks ago, Washington went into Tampa Bay and held the Bucs to only 3 points. Sure, that could have been due to Dirk Koetter reclaiming playcalling duties from offensive coordinator Todd Monken, but I was still encouraged by the Redskins nonetheless. I think they can keep that momentum going when Houston comes to town on Sunday.  – JR Reynolds

Zach Ertz ($6600) vs Saints – Ertz has lit the world on fire as most recently as last week vs the Cowboys. However, he now has the worst matchup of the season for TEs. While I do love this game, I am taking a stand on Ertz and making it a point to play the Eagles WRs instead. Some notable TEs that the Saints have limited this year are OJ Howard 2/54/0, Njoku 4/20/0, Hooper 3/23/0, Reed 1/21/0, and Rudolph 4/39/0. – Matty D

Julio Jones $8,500 vs Cowboys – Julio is finally scoring touchdowns. He’s on pace for a career-high in receiving yards. He’s playing at home in the dome. All of that said I still like all of the receivers & running backs in his price range significantly more.

 

Joe Mixon ($7100) vs Ravens – While Mixon has been fantastic this season, this isn’t the week to get cute. The Ravens have one of the best defenses. They rank 5th in run DVOA and have allowed a paltry 3.6 yards per carry to running backs. They’re even better at holding pass-catching backs in check as they have allowed 25 receiving yards to back a game. I very rarely fully fade any one player, however, with the number of injuries the Bengals have experienced this season, I just can’t envision a scenario where he gets on top of his lofty price tag – Kevin

Odell Beckham Jr ($8400) vs Buccaneers – What this really comes down to is price and who is around him. Why pay the $8K price tag on him with Michael Thomas only a couple hundred dollars more on both Fanduel and Draftkings. It pains me to want less than the field on him in this matchup vs Tampa Bay, but I want Michael Thomas or high priced running backs this week. The unfortunate thing for OBJ is while this is a solid matchup on paper for him, his teammates all have nuts matchups as well. Tampa Bay is 25th vs RBs,  22nd vs WR2, and 28th vs TEs on the year. He could be the odd man out on Sunday for the Giants offense, and I’m so high on Barkley my builds have to lead me off OBJ this week. Yikes. – Ryan

Bold Prediction

Ben Roethlisberger finishes as a top-five quarterback against a supposed bad matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags have not looked like the same defense they were a year ago. Add in the fact that Big Ben and company will be looking for revenge after last year’s defeat against them in the divisional round and you have yourself a high-upside QB play with some of the league’s best weapons at his disposal. – JR Reynolds

I am sticking to my theme here and saying the Saints/Eagles game goes for 70+ points. – Matty D

Kenny Golladay $5,800 scores multiple touchdowns against Carolina on Sunday regardless of Marvin Jones availability. – Darren Clark

New York Giants/Tampa Bay outscores New Orleans/Philly. – Ryan

Doug Martin finished with 100+ yards and two touchdowns. – Kevin

Three lower priced (and lower owned than the studs) RBs break the slate today. Alex Collins, Doug Martin, and Theo Riddick will all finish in the top 15  fantasy RBs. —Jen

Hello, my name is Kevin Steele. I enjoy long walks on the beach and cuddling up with a good glass of scotch and The Fantasy Life book by Matthew Berry.

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