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DFS DegeNation Week 13 Playsheet

We have been recording the DFS DegenNation Podcast for the last two seasons and we have discussed putting out a piece on our favorite plays. Well, we finally decided to make it a reality. For the rest of the season and the playoffs, we will produce this piece. We have pooled together the three members of the pod and our other three DFS contributors to give you a one-stop shop piece. We will be giving you our favorite cash, GPP, value plays, and stacks. We will also give you one player to fade and a bold prediction.

Be sure to tune in to the pod every week and rate and review the show on Itunes, Stitcher, Podbean, Google Play, or any other major Podcast App. Also, we have a FREE slack chat setup for the podcast. If you’re interested in joining, reach out to (@FantasyWrath13) on Twitter or the podcast (@DegenationPod) and we will get you into the slack.

Now with that out of the way here is the Week 13 playsheet!

Contributors:

JR Reynolds (@JR_Reynolds17)

Matty Dickason (@Matty_D_30)

Darren Clark (@DC_Corner3)

Jen Smith (@theonlyJenSmith) + honorable mentions

Kevin Steele (@FantasyWrath13)

*All Pricing is based off Draftkings pricing.

Cash Game LocksImage result for aaron jones

Aaron Jones ($6,700) – Jones has finally turned into the bellcow so many people wanted to see. It only took Mike McCarthy what seemed like an eternity to discover that featuring Jones was simply a no-brainer. This week I am not sure how my lineup(s) will shake out, but in my early builds, Jones is someone I am gravitating towards. Although his fantasy output has been anchored by his touchdown outburst a bit, I still think we can rely on him with his workload in both the running and passing game. It also helps that the Packers will be playing in Green Bay and will take on a weak Cardinals team that was just roughed up by the Chargers. – JR

Kenny Golladay ($6,700) – The Lions face the Rams at home this week and are going to be forced to pass the ball a ton just to try and keep up.  With Golden Tate in Philly and Marvin Jones on Injured Reserve, Stafford simply doesn’t have anyone else left. Over the last three weeks, Golladay is averaging a massive 12 targets per game and has racked up 19/281/2 in that span. The Rams defense is tough, especially with Aquib Talib returning but I’m betting on Golladay’s talent and volume here. – DC

DJ Moore ($5600)– Moore received 17 targets over the last two weeks, snagging 15 of them for 248 yards and a TD. This week, he faces Tampa Bay, arguably one of the best matchups for WRs this season. They gave up at least one TD to the WR position in EVERY game the season so far. With Funchess dinged up, Moore has become a focal point in this offense and really stepped up. Funchess looks like he will return this week (has a Q tag), but Moore should continue to be heavily involved. Even with Funchess on the field (and receiving 8 targets), Moore crushed Detroit in Week 11 to the tune of 157 yards and a TD. The floor is there and there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around this game, as neither has a strong defense. –Jen

Aaron Jones ($6700) – The Cardinals have been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL all season long. Over the last four games, Jones has handled an absurd 40% of total team touches. The pass catchers are banged up, so I expect Jones to continue to be involved in the pass game to go along with his awesome ground matchup. The Packers are 14 point home favorites. Perfect setup for an RB. – MattyD

Spencer Ware ($4000) – This is the most obvious play on the slate. Earlier in the week, Carlos Hyde was the cheap running back everyone wanted to play. That was until news broke of Kareem Hunt’s release after a video of him assaulting a female. He will likely carry 50-60% ownership in tournaments. In tournaments, he’s a player you can fade, however, his role makes him a lock in cash. Ware is stepping into a situation where Hunt assumed a 73% snap share and an 80% opportunity share. I would be hesitant to project that kind of opportunity for Ware. Overall, he’s hard to ignore at his price, especially in cash. The last time we saw him on the field he averaged 4.7 YPC and 11.8 YPR. Those aren’t very predictable stats, but in a high powered offense tethered to Patrick Mahomes, Spencer Ware is the key to the entire slate. – Kevin

 GPP Plays

Image result for jordan howard

Jordan Howard ($4,000) – Obviously Howard is only a GPP option at this point after receiving just 7 carries for 13 yards last week.  The talk of the Bears using Howard as a pass catcher this year has clearly proven to be a fallacy. This play is all about the match-up. Since trading away run stuffing Damon Harrison, the Giants have allowed 30.6 DK points to Adrian Peterson, 31.2 DK points to Matt Breida, a season-high 22 DK points to Peyton Barber, and 16.4 DK points to Josh Adams (Adams also had a 60 yard TD called back on a weak holding call).  – DC

Phillip Lindsay ($5400) – I was really hoping that Lindsay’s price wouldn’t jump this week due to his juicy match-up with the 28th ranked Bengals run defense. I’m happy to say it actually dropped $200. Lindsay has been a pleasant fantasy surprise this season, currently standing at the #11 overall fantasy RB (PPR). He’s scored 20+ DK fantasy points in 3 out of the last 4 weeks and averaged over 7 yards per carry in his last two contests.

Now, he draws the Bengals, who are hemorrhaging points to every skill position. They’ve given up 261 yards and 4 TDs in just their last two contests to RBs Nick Chubb (Week 12) + Alex Collins/Gus Edwards (Week 11). Lindsay runs like a bat out of hell. He’s a man on a mission and should go under-owned this week with Spencer Ware, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, and Todd Gurley getting the attention. –Jen

Saquon Barkley ($7,900) – Don’t get me wrong, there are a ton of solid options at running back this week, but one guy who doesn’t seem to be getting any love is Saquon Barkley. The matchup is a bit worrisome as the Giants will take on the vaunted Bears defense; however, Barkley’s workload is one that does not change, no matter the matchup or game script. If things aren’t working on the ground with Barkley, the Giants will simply dump it off to Saquon to let him work. It is not crazy to say that Barkley is 6-8 catches walking each and every game he suits up. Those points are especially valuable on a site like Draftkings. Let the matchup scare people away from one of the best players in the league whose price has decreased $1,200 after a 36.2 point game. –JR

Jordan Howard ($4000) – Howard is by far my favorite tournament play on this slate. He is going to have essentially 0% ownership. However, what people don’t realize is that Nagy has been scheming to his opponent all season long. In good run matchups, Howard has carried the ball more. He has as many as 24 carries in a game this year and had 18 just two weeks ago. If he gets 20+ here, he should easily get over the 100-yard mark. He’s the goal line back as well. I played Peyton Barber two weeks ago against the Giants, so I’m 100% taking a shot on Howard in the same spot since he is more talented. – MattyD

Julio Jones ($7700) – At first glance playing Julio against the Ravens seems like a bad idea, however, if you dig a bit deeper, this is a great matchup for him and at a reduced price. Jimmy Smith has been awful this year and will likely shadow. He is graded as one of the worst cover corners on the slate this season by PFF. With so much value this week, I will be loading up on Julio and his 29% target share in a home matchup against an overrated corner. – Kevin

GPP Rankings:

QB: 

  1. Jameis Winston
  2. Patrick Mahomes
  3. Lamar Jackson
  4. Aaron Rodgers
  5. Kirk Cousins
  6. Cam Newton
  7. Jeff Driskel
  8. Deshaun Watson
  9. Matthew Stafford
  10. Baker Mayfield

RB:

  1. Aaron Jones
  2. David Johnson
  3. Phillip Lindsay
  4. Christian McCaffrey
  5. Todd Gurley
  6. Joe Mixon
  7. Saquon Barkley
  8. Spencer Ware
  9. Dalvin Cook
  10. Matt Breida
  11. TJ Yeldon
  12. LeSean McCoy
  13. Nick Chubb
  14. Chirs Carson
  15. Lamar Miller
  16. Dion Lewis
  17. Sony Michel
  18. Carlos Hyde
  19. Theo Riddick
  20. Doug Martin

WR:

  1. Tyreek Hill
  2. Julio Jones
  3. Odell Beckham Jr
  4. Brandin Cooks
  5. DeAndre Hopkins
  6. Kenny Golladay
  7. Davante Adams
  8. Adam Theilen
  9. Corey Davis
  10. Mike Evans
  11. Robert Woods
  12. Stefan Diggs
  13. AJ Green
  14. Chris Godwin
  15. Emmanuel Sanders
  16. Josh Gordon
  17. TY Hilton
  18. Julian Edelman
  19. DJ Moore
  20. Sterling Shephard
  21. Courtland Sutton
  22. Tyler Boyd
  23. Demaryius Thomas
  24. Tyler Lockett
  25. Adam Humphries
  26. Allen Robinson

TE:

  1. Travis Kelce
  2. David Njoku
  3. Eric Ebron
  4. Austin Hooper
  5. Rob Gronkowski
  6. Cameron Brate
  7. Matt Lacosse
  8. George Kittle
  9. Kyle Rudolph
  10. C.J. Uzomah

D/ST

  1. Packers
  2. Seahawks
  3. Bears
  4. Chiefs
  5. Dolphins

Favorite Value PlaysImage result for adam humphries

Matt LaCosse ($2,500) – If you want to scrape the bottom of the barrel this week, you’ll find LaCosse for the bare minimum on DK.  With Heuerman going down, the Broncos will turn to at tight end this week. LaCosse is definitely viable in both cash and GPP this week at his price.  The Broncos have forced the ball to the tight end this year in the red zone and Heurman actually led the team with 13 red zone targets. LaCosse steps into that high-value role against a Bengals defense that–before forcing a punt in the 3rd quarter last week–had allowed 17 consecutive possessions with a punt.  They simply can’t stop anyone. – DC

Adam Humphries ($4200) – With the flock sprinting towards Chris Godwin (30% projected ownership), zig with me. Adam Humphries received 11 targets the last two games and caught 9 for 114 yards and two touchdowns. DeSean Jackson is now ruled out (thumb) for this weekend, leaving additional targets up for grabs. Humphries only needs 13 DK points to hit value, which he’s done 4 out of the last 5 weeks.

His ceiling? Look no further than the last time he faced his Week 13 opponent, Carolina. In Week 9, Humphries caught 8 for 82 yards and two TDs, good for 28.9 DK points. Carolina gave up 5 TDs and over 500 yards to the WR position in just the last three weeks. The differentiation between Evans, Humphries, Godwin, and Brate in the red zone is small (8-9 targets each) and Humphries is the #2 targeted WR on the team. So, I like his floor/chances of hitting paydirt. The Carolina 27th ranked pass DVOA should give him the ceiling, while his price and ownership percentage provide the GPP value. –Jen

Matthew Stafford ($5,400) – It has been a weird year for the Lions offensively. They started this season with a legit three-headed monster at receiver and somehow now they only have one of those guys left (Kenny Golladay). Marvin Jones is now on IR and Golden Tate was dealt at the deadline. Matthew Stafford’s production has taken a hit because of this receiving flux the Lions are in. Having said that, I think Stafford should be able to have one of his better outings of the season this week as the Lions should have no choice but to pass to stay in the game. If the Rams jump out to an early lead, the Lons will be forced to pick up the pace which should lead to some increased production against the below average Rams secondary. – JR

Chris Godwin ($3900) – With DJax out, we finally get a full dosage of Godwin. He has had value all year because of his red zone usage. He is tied with Evans for the team lead in red zone targets. However, he hasn’t been used as much between the 20s as him and Jackson split outside snaps here. This week he will get full run against an overrated secondary in a high total at home. Fire up, Godwin. – MattyD

Robert Foster ($3300) – Over the past two weeks, Foster has scored 17.4 and 16.5 DK points respectively. With Josh Allen under center, he hit Foster for a 75-yard touchdown. This might be a bit chasey playing Foster but there is no denying his big play upside. Foster is 6’2 196 and a ran a 4.41 forty at the combine. With very little in explosive talent in Buffalo, he makes for the perfect GPP play against a Dolphins defense that can be beaten through the air.  – Kevin

Top Value (5k or less) Rankings:

  1. Spencer Ware
  2. Chris Godwin
  3. Courtland Sutton
  4. TJ Yeldon
  5. Demaryius Thomas
  6. Jeff Driskel
  7. Adam Humphries
  8. Robert Foster
  9. Sterling Shephard
  10. Duke Johnson
  11. Jalen Richard
  12. Chris Conley
  13. David Moore
  14. Dante Pettis
  15. Doug Martin
  16. Carlos Hyde

Top Stack

Image result for kirk cousins and adam thielen

Kirk Cousins ($5,500) + Adam Thielen ($8,000) – Both of these guys are just underpriced.  The Patriots haven’t been able to stop anyone this year and I don’t expect that to change this week.  You can definitely run this stack back with Julien Edelman and/or Gronkowski if you trust his health or toss in Stefon Diggs and/or Kyle Rudolph if you want to run a 4 or 5 man stack.  I’d stay away from Josh Gordon this week in a likely shadow match-up with Xavier Rhodes. – DC

Andrew Luck ($5800) + T.Y. Hilton ($6000)  [+ Eric Ebron for megastack] – Maybe this feels redundant, but I’m going back to the well on this one. They’re just too cheap and have too high of ceilings for me to pass up. After catching 16 of 19 targets for 280 yards and two touchdowns in the last two weeks, T.Y. Hilton’s price dropped $5K. It dropped even more for Andrew Luck. $6400 to $5800. No doubt this is due to the match-up with Jacksonville. However, Jalen Ramsey (knee) did not practice all week until Friday, when he got in a limited practice. If Ramsey doesn’t go, this gets bumped up even more for me.

Luck’s been red hot and we don’t have to look far to get an idea of how this game could go. Week 10, Luck threw for 285 yards, three TDs, and one INT (good for 22.2 DK fantasy points) versus the Jags. That’s his floor. This #6 overall fantasy QB ended up the #6, #7, and #4 fantasy QB the last three weeks. I’ll take my bet on him and his top two weapons, especially given that Mack is dinged up (concussion protocol) and so they could lean even more on the pass. With ownership going to the more juicy matchups on paper this week, Luck and company should go under-owned. –Jen

Jared Goff ($6,400) + Brandin Cooks ($7,000) + Kenny Golladay ($6,700) – I expect that this type of stack will be somewhat popular come Sunday. This Rams offense in a dome game against one of the worst secondaries in the league should lead to some fantasy friendly performances. I don’t think you can go wrong with either Cooks or Woods as your Goff connection, but if I had to pick one I would probably opt for the former. Cooks’ should see some of Darius Slay who is one of the better corners in the league, but I will not be scared off. Bringing it back with Kenny Golladay is chalky, but logical nonetheless. – JR

Mahomes + Kelce ($14600) – With Hunt out, everyone is going to play Spencer Ware (as they should at his price). However, what they fail to realize is that Mahomes may throw even more now. It’s hard to imagine that happening due to already high volume, but it’s likely going to have to happen. Ware is heavily involved in pass game which should allow Reid to just let Mahomes do his thing. Kelce should benefit the most, especially in the red zone without Hunt. Kelce makes a great pivot off of Ebron chalk. – MattyD

Aaron Jones + Packers D ($9500) – I absolutely love Aaron Jones this week, and love the idea even more of pairing him with the Packers Defense for a low priced stack. I will have an absurd amount of both plays on my lineups tomorrow. You can count on that.

Fades

Image result for nick chubb

Nick Chubb ($7,000) – Chubb has been crushing of late, racking up 27.8 and 38.9 DK points the last two weeks.  With his price reaching a season-high and a tough match-up on the road against Houston, I just don’t like Chubb this week.  I’d much rather save $300 and play Aaron Jones or find some salary and get one of the high-end options. – DC

Tyler Boyd ($6,100) – This week the Bengals will be starting backup QB Jeff Driskel at home against the Broncos. To go along with that, Boyd will probably see a heavy dose of Chris Harris Jr. in the slot. This will leave the returning A.J. Green to roam free on the outside against a secondary that was destroyed by Juju Smith-Schuster last week. – JR

Julian Edelman ($7100) – He’s just too expensive. Hard to say someone who gets as many targets as he does (17 in the last two weeks) is going to bust, but there it is. To hit 3X value, Edelman needs to score 21 DK points. He’s done this just twice this season. He faces Minnesota’s 8th ranked pass defense DVOA in Week 13. Over the last six weeks, Minnesota allowed an average of 24.3 TOTAL fantasy points to the WR position per game. So, if Edelman was the only receiver for NE, he might have a shot at this. But, as we all know, in DFS at that price range, you need a guy with a better ceiling than Edelman has this week. To even hit 4X value (28 DK points), he needs to have the best fantasy game he’s had all year. That’s not in the cards vs Minnesota. There are much better options in that price range. –Jen

Josh Gordon ($5900) – Xavier Rhodes is a bad matchup for Gordon. Rhodes is much better against bigger receivers who run straight line or one cut routes. He struggles with shifty/quick receivers. Gordon is the big receiver who runs lots of slants and Go routes. Two route types that Rhodes excels at covering. – MattyD

Saquon Barkley ($7900) – I get it, Barkley has been an absolute stud this season. However, the Bears has been elite against the run. They have allowed the second fewest rushing yards and the third fewest DK points to the position. With so much value on this slate and better plays around him, I would rather look elsewhere this week.

Bold Prediction

DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200) teaches Browns stud rookie corner, Denzel Ward some lessons this week and scores 2 touchdowns.  The overall volume of the Texans passing game has been down in recent weeks and while that trend may or may not continue, I like Hopkins to have a bounce-back game here.  – DC

Phillip Lindsay ($5400) will gain 100+ all-purpose yards and hit paydirt twice versus the Bengals. Lindsay is good, Bengals run defense is bad (see above). The Broncos should be up and control the clock, so Lindsay will see plenty of touches. As you know, any touch for Lindsay has a shot to be a big play. I’m all in in Week 13.  –Jen

Julio Jones ($7,700) finishes as a top-5 reciever against a awesome Baltimore secondary. Jones has gone for 20+ DK points in 7 of his last 8 contests. – JR

Jordan Howard ($4000) is a top 5 raw point RB this week – MattyD

Julio Jones ($7700) finishes with 200 yards and two touchdowns. – Kevin

Honorable Mentions

Cash

Emmanuel Sanders, Christian McCaffrey – Jen

GPP

Lamar Miller, Josh Reynolds – Jen

Value Play

Spencer Ware -Jen

Fav Stack

Mahomes + Conley  -Jen

 

 

 

 

 

Senior Writer, Marketing Director for TheFantasyAuthority.com . I am an avid fantasy football player that enjoys discussion, community, competition, and challenges. I view writing about fantasy football as a privilege (and fun!), so my main focuses are quality and enjoyment. I believe that if we do quality work and use our passion (or addiction lol) as fuel, TFA will succeed as a team, achieve success, and find its home within the fantasy community. Follow me @FF_female920 for fantasy help and discussion!

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