Here we are again for the TFA Contrary-Ten Week 10 Edition: Pick Your Spots. I mentioned last week that you wanted to Trust Your Process in a week where we knew many guys were going to be high-owned and contrarian plays like Melvin Gordon and Antonio Gates could give your lineup an edge with chalk play likes Charcandrick West and the Chiefs defense. Obviously West was a letdown but there were good pivot spots to take off popular Packer plays and Ezekiel Elliott. In case you missed last week’s Contrary-Ten you can find it here. My Running Back and Tight End plays killed, with my receivers falling short once again. What this told me is paying for the sure thing at the running back position is more vital than paying up for a volatile WR position. This week I’m taking the process a step further and trying to pick spots where I want exposure to. There are some games I’m not even putting on my radar due to some teams just being in great spots. Some players below are listed to be pivots off high owned plays or listed due to injuries on their team. All-in-all I’m a firm believer that the later we get in the season, the more you want to diversify your lineup to get an edge. Not to say I’m fading David Johnson this week. I like money. But how you construct the lineup around him will be key to taking down tournaments. Let’s get into it!
Draftkings Price: $7400
I didn’t think there would ever be a time to put TB12 in this article other than his return from suspension, but here we are. Brady is the best quarterback in the NFL. He’s proving it now on his route to another MVP season. One thing I love as a contrarian player is getting great players in competitive football games. The Patriots-Seahawks game is one that should be on your radar for fantasy goodness. The Patriots have an implied team total of 28.25 points. In the past two games versus Seattle, Brady has thrown the ball 50+. He’s thrown for over 700 yards and six touchdowns. This is a great time to go all in on the Patriots offense against a Seattle defense that’s allowed 50 points in their last two games. There’s just something about Tom Brady that I can’t see myself playing him on less than 60 percent of my lineups this week. I’ll take my chances. But this guy is on a mission. He’s expected to have his full arsenal of weapons healthy in a Primetime match-up. Yes, please.
Ownership from Thursday Lock on FantasyAces & FantasyDraft: 10 percent & 8 percent
Draftkings Price: $6500
There isn’t a better matchup on paper this week than the Cardinals AT HOME versus the 49ers. Outside of David Johnson (who, rightfully so, will be the highest owned player this weekend), I want as much exposure to this team as possible. Arizona has an implied team total of 31 points. Easily the highest on the slate. While many might be scared to roster these guys in fear of a blowout, we’ve seen Palmer go off for 300 yards, 3 touchdowns in a blowout already this year: week 2 versus Tampa Bay, AT HOME. The Cardinals pass on roughly 60 percent of their plays this season. Makes sense considering Palmer has thrown the ball 30+ times in every game he’s suited up for this season. He’s thrown for 40+ in back-to-back games. Palmer has only played the 49ers four times in four years since joining the Cardinals. In his two home games against them, he’s thrown for over 300 yards and two touchdowns in both match-ups. Even if DJ destroys the 49ers defense, Palmer should still be in play for his volume. And heck, maybe one or two of DJ’s scores come off a Palmer pass.
Ownership from Thursday Lock on FantasyAces & FantasyDraft: 9 percent & 4 percent
Honorable Mention(s): Aaron Rodgers ($7500) & Russell Wilson ($6200)
Draftkings Price: $6000
I don’t want to say that Jordan Howard broke the Vikings defense, but…last time we saw Howard in action he rushed for 150+ yards on 26 carries against a top-10 run defense. People want to “pay up” on running back this week, but Howard isn’t on many people radar. Instead many are thinking of chasing points with the Cutler-Alshon stack. I encourage you to think twice before doing that. Cutler has disappointed in better spots before and could end up completing more passes to the Bucs secondary than Jeffery. The perfect pivot here is Howard. I’m not concerned about Ka’Deem Carey or Jeremy Langford. Howard clearly has the hot hand. Good news for him, he gets Pro Bowl offensive lineman Josh Sitton and Kyle Long back which I feel like isn’t being talked up enough. The Bears have run few plays in the RZ, but if they get down there I expect them to try and punch it in through the run. Howard is a perfect back to pair with DJ this week.
Ownership from Thursday Lock on FantasyAces & FantasyDraft: 20 percent & 10 percent
Draftkings Price: $4900
The reason I would be trying to fit Stewart into my lineups would be to get exposure to Carolina on teams where I’m not playing Cam. Don’t let the recency of the Rams game where Stewart had 42 yards on 15 carries affect your judgment. This match-up versus the Chiefs should get him close to 20 carries and that’s when Stewart is at this best. In both games this year where he saw 19+ touches he scored a total of four touchdowns, with 20 points in each game. One caveat to Stewart’s game is he does not see much work in the passing game. The past two games, however, he is seeing a significant share among the Panthers running backs meaning he’s going to be on the field. That’s all that matters to me: opportunity. Unfortunately, we’ll need Stewart to do most of his work outside the RZ as the only action he’s seen there is one lone target on the year. Justin Houston is still out for Kansas City and last week Chris Ivory rushed for 107 yards on 18 carries.
Ownership from Thursday Lock on FantasyAces & FantasyDraft: 3 percent & 3 percent
Honorable Mention(s): Jay Ajayi ($7000) & Devonta Freeman ($6800)
Draftkings Price: $8900
You know what I’m getting sick of? Writing about Antonio Brown – the best wide receiver in football – in a contrarian article. His price is once again under $9000 on Draftkings. To put this in perspective, he needs 4 catches, 100 yards, and a touchdown to reach 20+ points. Now if that seems out of the realm of possibility to you in a home match-up, well, sorry, but you’re wrong. We just saw him do that last week in a divisional match-up versus rival Baltimore Ravens. Even with his week 2 dud versus Cincinnati, Brown is averaging 18.8 DK points at home. The funny thing is Brown has two performances on the year scoring less than 10 points yet he’s WR4 in fantasy. Big Ben struggled immensely last week to do anything through the air. Many (myself included) questioned whether he was ready to be back health wise. Well, he’s off the week 10 injury report now. In a must-win game for the Steelers, I expect the Ben-Brown connection to be reunited.
Injury Note: Cowboys DB Morris Claiborne and S Barry Church are OUT for Week 10
Ownership from Thursday Lock on FantasyAces & FantasyDraft: 10 percent & 12 percent
Draftkings Price: $6800
Demaryius Thomas might be seeing an uptick in targets (10 in his last four consecutive games), but let’s not forget about the Broncos true No. 1 receiver in this great match-up versus the Saints awful pass D. The rank 28th in pass DVOA (Defense Adjusted-Value over Average) and are 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt. Look, I know Trevor Siemian let a lot of us down in week 9 in a great match-up versus the Raiders awful defense. But let’s remember, the Superdome is the Coors Field of the NFL. I’ve talked about this before. Everyone is in play when games are played in NoLA. Especially Sanders, who’s seeing 16 RZ targets on the year. That’s good enough to be tied for second. Only three of those targets have resulted in touchdowns but the usage is there.
Ownership from Thursday Lock on FantasyAces & FantasyDraft: 4 percent & 3 percent
Draftkings Price: $6500
When the news came out about Ty Montgomery being used as the Packers running back once Eddie Lacy was ruled out for the season, I was intrigued yet skeptical. Then I went to the Yahoo! Waiver Wire and saw his projections for the rest of the year in PPR leagues. It was 28+ per game. I wish I still had the screenshot, but the usage this guy was projected to see was through the roof. We’ve kinda seen it on the season already:
- Week 6 vs Dallas: 10 catches, 98 yards; 3 carries, 6 yards
- Week 7 vs Chicago: 10 catches, 66 yards; 9 carries 60 yards
Even last week he turned in a 10 touch day (his lowest since Lacy’s injury) into 12 fantasy points. After last week with all the Green Bay pass catchers being heavily involved I don’t see many people wanting to go back to the well. Especially when you consider they’re all priced the same (Cobb is $6400 and Adams is $6300, Nelson only $1000 more than Montgomery). At the end of the day, Montgomery, to me, has the safest floor at the WR position. That’s without finding the endzone yet this year. Once he starts scoring, he’ll easily get 3x return on his price tag. This may be that week.
Ownership from Thursday Lock on FantasyAces & FantasyDraft: 3 percent & 2 percent
Draftkings Price: $3200
There’s another guy in this Patriot offense I like more than Danny (not named Gronk) who I’ll touch on a couple of plays later, but Danny is still in play this weekend and I’ll tell you why. Most likely you’ll have to take one dart play this weekend whether you choose to pay up for Running Back or Wide Receiver. Why not target a guy in a prolific offense who plays with arguably the best quarterback in the game. People are sleeping on Amendola this year. Did you know DA already has three touchdowns on the year? That ties him for second on the Patriots behind a guy I’ll mention later on. His three touchdowns on the season are as many as Emmanuel Sanders, DeAndre Hopkins, Randall Cobb, Jordan Matthews, and A.J. Green. Brady loves this guy. With the Patriots facing a stout defense that will primarily focus its attention on stopping Brady’s No. 1 option Mr. Gronkowski, I look for OC Josh McDaniels and Brady to look to get some of the other guys involved. Again, the best part about Amendola is he plays in an offense you know will put up points. He’s also in the late game so his ownership will be low, and could help your tournament team spike.
Ownership from Thursday Lock on FantasyAces & FantasyDraft: 1 percent & N/A
Honorable Mention(s): Larry Fitzgerald ($7600), Stefon Diggs ($6200), Jamison Crowder ($5000), Mohamed Sanu ($4600) & Eli Rogers ($3500)
Draftkings Price: $5600
Kelce is one of my favorite players in the league when he’s not making obscene gestures or getting thrown out of games. I’ve been preaching all year for Andy Reid to find a way to get this guy more involved in the passing game and this might be as good an opportunity as ever. Maclin’s ruled out. That’s all I need to know to make Kelce a key target of mine for Sunday. The fourth-year tight end leads the team in yards, yards per target and touchdowns. He’s second to Jeremy Maclin in targets and receptions. Many will try to guess (yes, guess) with the low priced wide receivers for Kansas City, but that’s too hard for me to want to do. Instead, I’ll go with the sure thing in Kelce here.
Ownership from Thursday Lock on FantasyAces & FantasyDraft: 4 percent & 2 percent
*Disclaimer: Bennett is still questionable with an ankle injury. Make sure he’s a go before 12pm CT lock*
That three touchdown game for Bennett seams like years ago, doesn’t it? Since Gronk has returned to the field, Bennett’s usage has seen a hit, but it’s still close to 70 percent. As I said above with Amendola, I will be targeting anybody in a Tom Brady offense. I do love Gronk this week because, well, duh. But we have to assume the Seahawks defense will focus on him mightily in the Red Zone. That’s where we can see Bennett left all alone and even if he only see’s five targets he’ll still reach value at his price. The thing is can some of his targets result in 6+ points. Take a look at his red zone numbers: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 4 touchdowns. Basically if he catches the ball in the redzone there’s a high probability it’s going for a score. I like trying to fit Bennett on teams I can’t get Gronk or Danny Amendola.
Ownership from Thursday Lock on FantasyAces & FantasyDraft: N/A
Honorable Mention(s): Zach Ertz ($3700) & Coby Fleener ($3300)
My Main Draftkings Team for the All-Day Sunday Slate:
QB: Tom Brady
RBs: David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell
WRs: Stefon Diggs, Ty Montgomery, Danny Amendola
TE(s): Fleener (if I hear word that Bennett is for sure playing before lock I’ll consider pivoting to him in this spot)
Flex: Mohamed Sanu
Total Salary: $49000
Good luck everyone! Get that $$$.