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TFA Contrary-Ten Week 11 WR Julian Edelman

This week…no introduction is needed. I’ll let the plays do the talking. Best of luck to everyone in week 11! Get that $$$.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck

Draftkings Price: $7200

Andrew Luck at home is just a no brainer for me. I’ll play him this week with one or two of his pass catchers, or “Naked” by himself. Then we have to look at how much better Luck has been at home versus on the road this year. For starters, Luck is averaging five more DK points at home as opposed to on the road. He’s throwing for more yards and has a better TD:INT ratio. Luck loves playing division rivals and from what I saw last week from Green Bay this Tennessee defense can’t defend the pass. Tennessee’s defense 26th in DVOA if we’re looking at the stats. The Colts have a team-implied total of 28 points. Luck should be able to get points on the board in this match-up no problem. The icing on the cake here is that Luck is 8-0 versus Tennessee in his career. Narrative alert!

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 17 percent & 4 percent

Matthew Stafford

Draftkings Price: $6600

No one wants to play Matthew Stafford right now, so don’t mind if I do. Stafford gets a home match-up against the Jacksonville Jaguars off the bye. He now has his full offensive unit healthy and with a team-implied total of 26.75 points, I expect the Lions to attack through the air to get points on the board. Stafford’s home games haven’t been much to write about as he hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards in any home game this year. He does, however, have a 9-1 TD:INT ratio at home and an 110 QB rating. That’s good enough for me. I’ll touch on later in the article some pass catching options I’ll want to stack with Stafford. Much like the Packers, the Lions don’t have much of a run game. Riddick might as well line up at wide receiver with the amount of targets he’s seeing through the air. The Lions right now need to pile up wins being tied for first in the NFC North. Stafford and the boys will do their best to rack up the points in this one.

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 5 percent & 3 percent

Honorable Mention(s): Tyrod Taylor ($5600) & Colin Kaepernick ($5200)

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott

Draftkings Price: $8000

I can’t believe for two weeks in a row, Elliott is a contrarian option. I’ll be honest – egg is on my face. I wasn’t of the belief that Elliott would have a big game on the road in Pittsburgh. Boy was I wrong. This guy is match-up proof as long as his offensive line stays healthy. I get he’s facing a stout defense in Baltimore that only allows 71 rushing yards per game to their opponents. They did contain the likes of Le’Veon Bell pretty well, but he still put up double-digit fantasy points. LeSean McCoy was held to 58 yards in week 1 versus Baltimore but was able to find the end zone. Elliott will be able to get his in this game. The No. 1 fantasy running back is AVERAGING 111 yards per game, 24 fantasy points per game on DK, and has 1,000 yards rushing on the season to go along with 10 touchdowns. If you’re building a team this week, please try and find a way to get this guy in your lineup. Don’t put yourself in a tilting situation before the games even start.

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 4 percent & 17 percent

Todd Gurley

Draftkings Price: $5000

That price tag above…yes, the $5000 price tag for Todd Gurley, the first round pick that some of you reading this built your season-long teams around…is not a typo. This price, I don’t care how “bad” he’s been, is criminal. Gurley is still a top talent at the RB position and for this guy to reach value he only needs to have a line of 75 yards and a touchdown. That’s if he isn’t able to reel in a couple catches. It’s hard to believe Gurley can find the end zone as he’s only been there three times this year, twice in one game. One thing to keep in mind, however, are those games where he hit pay dirt he had 20+ touches. Jared Goff is the new Rams QB for week 11. It’s hard to envision Gurley not seeing 20+ touches and seeing that kind of volume at his price tag just cannot be overlooked. Miami has been tough to run against on their four-game win streak, but this is their second West Coast game in two weeks. This could be the first game of the season where Gurley gets more touches out of the backfield than his QB has pass attempts. I’m not saying build around Gurley, but definitely, consider him as a pivot off mid-tier WRs.

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 6 percent & 7 percent

Rob Kelley

Draftkings Price: $4400

Just doing preliminary roster construction I know I want to pay up for Quarterback and one big name running back and wide receiver this week. In doing so, I’m going to have to dig deep for good plays at a low price to make my lineup optimal. Enter Rob Kelley. Kelley is the Redskins new No. 1 back since Matt Jones is allergic to holding onto the football. He’s a hard runner having broken 12 tackles in his first two starts already. Kelley has seen 20 touches in his past two games. Unfortunately for those of us who play on Draftkings, he really doesn’t see passing targets, but you know what – I’m fine with that. He had almost 100 yards on the ground versus Minnesota and now he gets a Green Bay defense that has allowed over 50 total DK points to running backs in their past two games. The Redskins have a team implied total of 26 points. You’re going to want exposure to this Sunday Night game and what better to way to watch than to see Kelley catapult your GPP team into high standings with a big night.

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 5 percent & 3 percent

Honorable Mention(s): Spencer Ware ($6000) & Rashad Jennings ($3600)

Wide Receivers

Dez Bryant

Draftkings Price: $7200

Welcome to the Contrary-Ten, Dez. How the hell are ya?! All I need to know (and you guys as readers as well) is that Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil are expected to miss the game. I love paying up for Elliott this week, but that doesn’t mean I don’t exposure to Dez. We can table all that nonsense about how Dak can’t get the ball to Dez. Since returning from injury in week 8, Dez has two games with over 110 receiving yards and 23 targets in those two games. Dak and Dez are developing something special now. If you want to save $800 to pivot off of Elliott by all means, look at Dez. I encourage you to look back to week 6 Ravens versus Giants. Jimmy Smith was dominating OBJ all game but didn’t play in the second half due to injury. He ended up with the highest score on DK this year for a WR with 44.2. Dez (and his owners) should be salivating come Sunday.

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 2 percent & 2 percent

Davante Adams

Draftkings Price: $6700

Oh, Adams, why must you continue to haunt me this fantasy season. I cannot get this guy right in DFS, ever. Yet I always seem to find a knack to roster him in my season-long leagues. Adams is just going to be a guy that I will have at least some exposure to going forward. I talked last week on the TFA Sunday Gameday pod how when Rodgers has that one target in the offense he’s completing passes to he goes to that player over and over again. Last week, that was Adams. Come to think of it…most weeks this year it has been Adams. He’s averaging an amazing 24.82 DK points over his last four games. The problem for defenses is they don’t have enough personnel to match-up against all of these WR threats the Packers are rolling out. Even better for Adams is that his defensive unit can’t stop a nosebleed and they have no run game. That’s allowing Rodgers to throw for an average of 46 attempts per game in his last six games. If you’re not rostering Jordy because of the Norman shadow concerns, it makes no sense to not get Adams on your team. He’ll be guarded by Bashaud Breeland who just allowed Stefon Diggs 32 DK points on 13 catches for 164 yards.

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 7 percent & 9 percent

Julian Edelman

Draftkings Price: $6300

Listen, I’m still riding on the biggest tilt from last weekend where I was all-in on the Patriots offense versus Seattle in a HOME match-up. Damn you LeGarrette Blount. I will not let that keep me down this week. Edelman is in the NUTS spot this week. Yeah, I said it. Many people I follow in the industry were in highly on Edelman last week while I was looking to save money to pay up for Antonio Brown and went with Danny Amendola. Last week the offense was full force. This week the Patriots will be without Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan. There’s no hiding the fact that the 49ers defense is terrible versus the run. The only problem is rostering Blount this week will cost you $6400! No, thank you. David Johnson, arguably the 1A or 1B running back, only put 55 rushing yards. Give me Edelman at $100 cheaper who is used as a running back with his average depth of target of 8.35 and no less than 7 targets since Brady has returned. Without Gronk, look for Edelman to be heavily targeted in a game where the Patriots could easily put up 35+ points.

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 6 percent & 7 percent

Golden Tate

Draftkings Price: $5300

Ah, Golden Tate…what can be said about this fantasy darling who has come to life over the past couple weeks of the season. Finally, he has been able to show us what he can do with the ball in has hands as last time we saw him on the field he took a catch 28 yards to the house in OT. In the past two games, even with Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron back in the mix, Tate has seen 21 targets from Stafford. We have to go back all the way back to week 5 to find a game where Tate hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points. There’s no question that Stafford-Tate have developed a rapport with each other and I look for that trend to continue in week 11 in a home match-up against Jacksonville.

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 6 percent & 10 percent

Marvin Jones, Jr.

Draftkings Price: $5000

Why am I writing up the entire Detroit offense? Because I think a Detroit stack in some sort of fashion is enough to take down a GPP this weekend. Think about this, the Lions have a team-implied point total of just about 26 points. In games where the Lions have scored 26+ points, Stafford has put up 28.2, 30.5 and 28.1 DK points. That means fantasy goodness for all of the weapons involved. If you’re building a roster and find yourself in the 5k range for a wide receiver, I think most people will lean towards Tate to get exposure to this game. Not a bad idea. I just think a great pivot is Marvin Jones Jr. who’s bound to be less than 5 percent owned in all-day tournament formats. Jones’ targets have been down since the return of Ebron and Riddick, but he’s still seeing 22 percent of the Lions Red Zone targets. He has the 8th highest market share of air yards in the NFL among WRs. Earlier this year when Jones was putting up his incredible numbers, those only came on 4-5-6 catches at most. Meaning this guy has the chance to have a big game any time he gets the ball in his hands. If you’re a contrarian player like me and you’re not considering getting this guy into your lineups this weekend, you’re doing it wrong.

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 2 percent & n/a

Honorable Mention(s): Odell Beckham Jr. ($8500), Mike Evans ($8100) & Tavon Austin ($3900)

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed

Draftkings Price: $5900

I’m telling you right now, whatever you think Reed’s ownership is going to be on Sunday, it will not be high enough. Reed’s ownership was at the top for Tight Ends on Thursday slates. I guarantee that will change by Sunday lock with people wanting to get in Bennett with Gronk out or Julius Thomas against Detroit. Not saying either are bad plays nor will I fade them completely. Reed gives just about as much upside as any Tight End on any given slate. The Packers-Redskins game has the third highest over/under on the Sunday slate. As I said with Kelley, I want as much exposure to this game as I can get. The Packers defense has allowed 111 points over their past 3 games. Last game, Reed saw two RZ targets only to be vultured on TDs by Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis. I’ll let people chase the points and get a guy who has the most double-digit target games on the team (4).

Ownership From Thursday Lock on FantasyAces and FantasyDraft: 24 percent & 13 percent

Honorable Mention(s): Dwayne Allen ($2900)

Draftkings Main Slate Team

QB: Kirk Cousins

RBs: Ezekiel Elliott, Theo Riddick

WRs: Julian Edelman, Marvin Jones, Davante Adams

Flex: Martellus Bennett

TE: Jordan Reed

D/ST: KC Chiefs

Total Salary: $49,000

 

Senior Writer and 1/4 of the TFA Podcast. Currently reside in Chicago, IL – the greatest city in the states. I support all Chicago sports, but I’m loyal to the Bears, Bulls, and Cubbies. Also a fan of the Steelers. Don’t @ me. Been playing Fantasy Football for years, most specifically redraft, but I dabble in dynasty, MFL10, and DFS. DFS is my vice. You can find me on Twitter @RyanAlexander_W talking mainly sports, and then whatever else is on my mind.

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