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TFA Contrary-Ten Week 13 WR Doug Baldwin

Quarterbacks

 

Matthew Stafford

Draftkings Price: $7000

Let’s take a look at the Quarterbacks and their numbers who have played the Saints in the Superdome:

Jared Goff (Week 12): 214 passing yards, 3 total TDs = 18.56 DK points

Trevor Siemian (Week 10): 252 passing yards, 2 total TDs = 16.82 DK Points

Russell Wilson (Week 8): 253 passing yards, 0 total TDs = 10.2 DK points

Cam Newton (Week 6): 322 passing yards, 3 total TDs = 30.98 DK Points

Matt Ryan (Week 3): 240 passing yards, 2 total TDs = 19.9 DK Points

Derek Carr (Week 1): 319 passing yards, 1 total TD = 25.36 DK Points

I keep on writing up Stafford and he keeps on disappointing. Not this week. Stafford is in the nuts spot and his increase in price isn’t enough to scare me off. Stafford plays home games in a dome so I won’t really factor that he’s on the road this week. He’s thrown for six touchdowns and ran for a touchdown in his career versus the Saints. This game should be loaded for fantasy goodness. Stafford has disappointed fantasy players in recent weeks, but in this match-up at this price, he’ll be contrarian enough to warrant looks.

Thursday Ownership From FantasyAces: 15 percent

Russell Wilson

Draftkings Price: $6300

Over the years, much has been made about Russell Wilson in prime time games. Wilson has been great recently on Monday Night Football, that’s for sure. But from a fantasy standpoint, Sunday Night Football hasn’t been as promising. Here are his total numbers on Sunday Night Football in his career:

100 of 171, 1135 yards, 10 touchdowns, four interceptions

Those numbers aren’t too bad, but in his last two games, he’s only scored 1 touchdown. So why am I writing up Wilson this week? Well, they just lost to the Buccaneers in what many considered to be a favorable match-up. The Seahawks are in full-on must-win mode, and I believe they’ll rely heavily on Wilson. Luckily for him, he gets a Panthers defense at home and the Panthers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Their defense ranks 26th against the pass and the Seahawks are implied to score 25 points on Sunday. In four games versus Carolina Wilson’s had a TD in each game and last game in Seattle he had 50 rushing yards against them.

Thursday Ownership From FantasyAces: 14 percent

Honorable Mention(s):

Aaron Rodgers ($6700) vs Houston & Blake Bortles ($5000) vs Denver

Running Backs

 

Jordan Howard

Draftkings Price: $6900

In case you’ve forgotten, the 49ers defense is bad against the run. Really bad. They’re 30th in team DVOA versus the rush. They’re allowing 171 rushing yards PER GAME to running backs and have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns – the most in the league. Oh, let’s not forget the 5.1 yards per carry. This is all Jordan Howard to me. At this price, you can easily pair him with Bell or DJ and build from there. Howard has the backfield on lock right now.

Thursday Ownership From FantasyAces: 33 percent

Carlos Hyde

Draftkings Price: $5300

Don’t want to play Kaepernick in Daily Fantasy? Yeah, me neither. I get this guy’s floor is really impressive due to his rushing ability, but it’s still Kaep. I think you can get higher upside at the quarterback position. This is what leads me to pivot to Hyde who has been getting better each week since his injury earlier this year, especially in his past two games. He’s had 151 yards and 8 catches in his past two games and double-digit fantasy outputs in both as well. The best part of rostering Hyde is you get his dominant Red Zone usage. Hyde has 30 rushes inside the 20 and six of those have gone for touchdowns. The Bears are missing their top two linebackers this week in Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. Hyde makes for an easy contrarian pivot for me.

Thursday Ownership From FantasyAces: 23 percent

Theo Riddick

Draftkings Price: $5800

This is the highest price we’ve seen for Riddick all season, and to be honest, I really don’t care. I love rostering Theo Riddick every week for the same reason I love rostering Melvin Gordon: Opportunity. He has the Detroit backfield ON LOCK. There’s literally no one else, and he is doing most of his damage through the air. Riddick is third among running backs in targets and receptions. I’ve already mentioned with Stafford how the Saints-Lions game is full of fantasy goodness, but getting in on the low-owned options in a game like this is where you really give yourself the edge. Riddick will be lower owned come Sunday. If he’s able to find the end zone, you’ll easily be in great position in tournaments as he puts up around 8-9 fantasy points without hitting pay dirt. In his three 20-point DK performances he scored at least one touchdown. Touchdown from Riddick and you’re golden.

Thursday Ownership From FantasyAces: 24 percent

Honorable Mention(s):

Melvin Gordon ($7200) vs Tampa Bay & Spencer Ware ($6400) @ Atlanta

Wide Receivers

 

Julio Jones

Draftkings Price: $8700

It’s impossible to play the top two running backs (DJ & Lev Bell) with Julio this week and be content with your lineup. So it’ll basically come down to how much you believe Julio’s day can compare to those two guys who have the ability score on the ground and through the air. Jones is the epitome of a boom-or-bust receiver. Just check his blurb on DK. Jones either has over 100 yards receiving or under 35 yards. There’s no happy medium with this guy. That’s what makes him the ultimate contrarian play. I’m projecting under 10 percent ownership for Jones this week. I imagine people will be scared off because of the Marcus Peters match-up but Pro Football Focus actually has Jones’ projected match-up versus Steven Nelson who was torched for 114 yards on seven catches.

Thursday Ownership From FantasyAces: 6 percent

Doug Baldwin

Draftkings Price: $6700

The last time Baldwin scored less than double-digit DK points was week 8 at New Orleans. His current streak of double-digit DK points right now is at four and he’s had three touchdowns in that time span. Yes, I understand those TDs have all come from one game, but this guy is always in play in favorable match-ups for Wilson. He’s easily the favorite of the WRs for Seattle seeing over 20 more targets than his next counterpart. Another crazy stat here is that he’s the only wide receiver other than Tanner McEvoy to catch a touchdown this year. The players in the primetime games always go underowned – see Emmanuel Sanders last week. This could be the perfect spot to leverage your lineup if you hit on the earlier games.

Thursday Ownership From FantasyAces: 11 percent

Dorial Green-Beckham

Draftkings Price: $3000

I watched this guy play in college. He’s a freak of an athlete and becoming a viable weapon for the Eagles as of late. Injuries to the Eagles are giving him a chance to shine with QB Carson Wentz and we should expect nothing less this weekend. Jordan Matthews is truly questionable to play this weekend. Even with Nelson Agholor expected back, DGB would be the clear No. 1 for Philadelphia on Sunday without Matthews. The past two games we’ve seen the Wentz-DGB rapport grow, and has an astounding 11 catches on 18 targets in his past two games. That has given him back-to-back double-digit performances on DK, more than paying off his $3000 price tag.

Thursday Ownership From FantasyAces: 6 percent

Honorable Mention(s):

Jordy Nelson ($7000) @ Houston, Marvin Jones ($4400) @ New Orleans, Mohamed Sanu ($4400) vs. Kansas City Anquan Boldin ($4100) @ New Orleans

Tight Ends

 

Greg Olsen

Draftkings Price: $5100

Here is your ultimate contrarian play of the week. Greg Olsen is now $5100 on Draftkings…I can’t believe it. Gronk and Reed are $1000 more expensive and both have been ruled out for week 13. He is the most consistent option for Cam Newton in the Panthers. Olsen now has had three games in a row with less than 10 DK points, but he’s still seeing at least five targets per game. In fact, Olsen has seen five targets in every game this year except one. Ted Ginn, Jr.  has been the only other consistent option in the passing game. Benjamin and Funchess are both afterthoughts at this point and I don’t see Jonathan Stewart able to do much in this game. If Seattle is able to reach their implied total of 25 points, I would imagine the Panthers to be playing from behind thus forcing Carolina to throw a majority of the game. This is the cheapest Olsen has been since week 1. Don’t miss out this Sunday.

Thursday Ownership From FantasyAces: 4 percent

Vernon Davis

Draftkings Price: $3300

Vernon Davis is not a sexy fantasy name, but Jordan Reed is out for week 13. Opportunity is the best thing to target when picking players for your daily lineups. In three of his past four games, Davis has gotten over 60 yards and has hit pay dirt once. When Reed was hurt earlier this year, Davis saw 10 targets in those two games and a touchdown. Arizona is fairly good versus the Tight End ranked No. 2 in Team DVOA. Davis has an 84% catch rate on the year and gets RZ looks in games Reed doesn’t play. That’s enough at this price to make Davis a contrarian staple of my lineup(s) for Sunday.

Thursday Ownership From FantasyAces: 4 percent

Honorable Mention(s):

Greg Olsen ($5100) @ Seattle &  Josh Hill ($2500) vs Detroit

 

Main Draftkings Lineup for Sunday Main Slate

QB: Russell Wilson

RB: Jordan Howard, Theo Riddick

WR: Jordy Nelson, Brandin Cooks, Doug Baldwin

TE: Vernon Davis

Flex: Dorial Green-Beckham

D/ST: Broncos

Total Salary: $49,300

Senior Writer and 1/4 of the TFA Podcast. Currently reside in Chicago, IL – the greatest city in the states. I support all Chicago sports, but I’m loyal to the Bears, Bulls, and Cubbies. Also a fan of the Steelers. Don’t @ me. Been playing Fantasy Football for years, most specifically redraft, but I dabble in dynasty, MFL10, and DFS. DFS is my vice. You can find me on Twitter @RyanAlexander_W talking mainly sports, and then whatever else is on my mind.

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