TFA Contrary-Ten Week 5 edition is here – hallelujah! Week 4 was a rough one. I was too contrarian for my own good. Overthinking a lot of scenarios that I liked and may have wanted to force to work. While there are numerous redemption spots in this piece, I think you’ll find a lot of these players in good spots that not many are talking about. Five weeks in I’m ready to win big money on numerous plays from the Contrary-Ten and I hope you’re ready, too. Let’s get into week 5!
While these are plays I will have exposure to across the industry, these are designed specifically for Draftkings roster construction.
Draftkings Price: $6800
I have yet to write up Derek Carr this year and I don’t know why. He’s currently in the range of QB3-QB5 in fantasy (depending on what site you play on) and that’s without Amari Cooper scoring a touchdown yet this year. I’m close to saying Carr has one of the best 1-2 receiving corps in the league. Crabtree has been fantastic this year and Cooper is right behind him. The Raiders face off against San Diego this week and I expect scores to be in abundance. The run game will take a hit with Latavius Murray missing the game so the offense falls on Carr. In four career games versus San Diego, he’s thrown for an average of 237 yards and two touchdowns. Fellow writer Anthony Pinzone wrote up Carr in his Studs and Duds article this week so I’m not the only one on our staff who likes this spot!
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 21 percent
Draftkings Price: $6600
I have a feeling that most people are going to fade Matthew Stafford. He’s coming off a game where he threw for zero touchdowns. Against the Bears. I can’t ignore that’s pretty ugly, but hey – it’s a divisional opponent and they were on the road. In the NFL things happen. This is a great bounce back spot for Stafford versus an Eagles defense that has been lucky if you ask me. The Browns, Bears, and the Steelers (sans Le’Veon) at home isn’t enough for me to buy-in. Narrative alert: Stafford is facing ex-Lions head coach, now Eagles defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz in this game. Stafford is definitely going to want to stick it to him. Stafford is attempting 39 passes per game and is fourth in the league in yards per game. With relatively no run game (Dwayne Washington has been ruled out) Stafford will see all the volume.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 2 percent
Honorable Mention(s): Andrew Luck ($7300) & Eli Manning ($6000)
Draftkings Price: $6500
This is the time to get on Todd Gurley. He’s the seventh highest priced running back on Draftkings and this might be the best price you can get him at all season. In case you missed it from earlier today, Bills beat writer Matthew Fairburn dropped a twitter bomb. Defensive lineman Marcel Dareus popped up on the Friday injury report, along with DB Stephon Gilmore, offensive lineman Cordy Glenn, and, wait for it, Lesean McCoy. These are significant injuries for the Bills and could create a game script with the Rams playing with a lead. I expect Gurley to eat on Sunday. Don’t be scared about his 2.6 yard per carry average this season. He’s seeing all the run right now. Even getting targets in the passing game with Benny Cunningham being out.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 6 percent
Draftkings Price: $6800
I get his price tag is high, but cmon on people. This is a home favorite running back and a great spot! This notion that you can pay down for running is extremely GPP. Maybe a little too GPP for me. I think the top tier running backs can set your lineups this week far and away apart from the competition. Here’s a RB in a situation where the team hasn’t even named their starting quarterback. Don’t bring up last week where he only had 19 carries for 49 yards. It was a road match-up and Siemian got hurt. They gave Lynch the ability to make plays and let Devontae Booker and Kapri Bibbs get run. Facing a 3-1 Atlanta team in Mile High we can expect two things from Denver: they’ll rely on the run game and the defense. At home, CJ is averaging 20 carries per game and has a TD in each game. He’s a no-brainer to build around.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 14 percent
Draftkings Price: $4000
What makes Powell so appealing is his usage in the passing game. Given that the Jets vs. Steelers has an over/under of 48 all of the passing options in this game are in play. The Steelers are pretty great against the run, but with Ryan Shazier being out the middle of the field will be wide open. Most people are leaning to Quincy Enuwa in this spot. There are other receivers I would rather play. The $4000 price tag makes him appealing to get exposure to this game for next to nothing.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 6 percent
Honorable Mention(s): Eddie Lacy ($5900) & Theo Riddick ($4900)
Draftkings Price: $6800
Did we forget about this guy? I’ve heard no talk about Matthews this week, yet people are high on Wentz and Ertz. For good reason, too. This Lions defense is bad. They just allowed Brian Hoyer and Eddie Royal to dominate them. They cannot defend the middle of the field. At all. That’s why tight ends have scored six touchdowns in four games (18 touchdowns in 20 games) versus this defense. I don’t think the Lions have faced quite the slot-threat of Matthews thus far. I’m banking on some of that tight end production going his route. He’s facing Quandre Diggs – the 103-rd graded cornerback on Pro Football Focus. Matthews is 6’3″, Diggs is 5’9″. This match-up screams 100 yards and a touchdown for JMatt.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 8 percent
Draftkings Price: $6700
I’ve been waiting, hoping, wishing for good news about Edelman this week and it finally came! Earlier this week, there was concern Edelman could possibly miss the game with his foot bothering him. He was limited at practice on Thursday and now it looks like he’s going full practice on Friday. The best way to get exposure to Brady without paying up for Brady? Play Edelman. This is just such a great spot for him with Brady back. Be ready to see the bromance rekindled. It’s simple: when Edelman is on the field, Brady plays better. Through the first nine games last season, Brady had 24 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Once Edelman got hurt (with a foot injury he’s still battling), Brady only threw for 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. His completion percentage took a significant drop. Edelman, in turn, is better with Brady on the field. Through four games Edelman only has 126 yards with no touchdowns on 19 catches. Last year through four games: 399 yards, 3 touchdowns, 34 catches. Yeah…
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 10 percent
Draftkings Price: $4900
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Just five weeks ago Tate was being discussed as a fantasy darling…the number one receiver in Detroit. Fast forward to last week, he’s being benched for Andre Roberts after Stafford threw a fit for him running the wrong routes. Yet this week many in the Lions brass have come out saying that Tate is due for a big week. I’m a believer in that too. Marvin Jones is expected to play but has been battling a foot injury. I talked about how the run game for the Lions is depleted in Stafford’s write up. Under $5000, I have to take a chance on Tate who has led the Lions in receptions the past two seasons. This is a slump he’s in and he’s too good of a talent to not get out of it. I’d rather be a week early than a week too late.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 1 percent
Draftkings Price: $3000
Cam Meredith is a guy I will want a ton of exposure on Sunday if for no reason his price. I mean my goodness, he’s minimum for a wide receiver on Draftkings allowing you all the flexibility in lineup construction. But why Cameron Meredith? Well, for starters Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, and Zach Miller have graced the injury report with their presence this week. While the only one really expected to miss is Royal, it still gives me pause to want to count on the others. Then let’s factor in that last week when Royal left the game, Meredith played on all 17 snaps. Oh, and have I mentioned this kid is one hell of an athlete? Played quarterback at his Alma Mater Illinois State before moving to wide receiver. The 6’3″ 205 lb. receiver should get multiple opportunities to take advantage of this horrendous Colts defense. Expect at least 3x value for the Bears new WR2.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 3 percent
Honorable Mention(s): DeAndre Hopkins ($7700), T.Y. Hilton ($7400) & Tyrell Williams ($4700)
Draftkings Price: $3300
Hunter Henry is just way too cheap. WAY too cheap. I’ll be paying up at running back and quarterback most likely on a majority of teams so Henry is a perfect plug-in play for me. I always talk about targeting the Raiders defense with tight ends. This spot is no different. Scratch that Dennis Pitta only had a line of 3-17-0. He wasn’t seeing the volume I thought he would with the resurgence of Steve Smith Sr. Henry, on the other hand, has seen 12 targets in his last two games. He’s gone over double-digit DK points in both games as well. Side note: you’ll want to monitor Antonio Gates’ status. Gates has had two limited practices this week already. If Gates plays, I may pivot to him. For now, Henry is the guy I want to target in a matchup versus Oakland that should be a shootout.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 7 percent
Honorable Mention(s): Rob Gronkowski ($6500) & Jacob Tamme ($3000)