There are some incredible matchups in week 10, and a lot of them belong to the highest priced options on the board. The broken record that I am, I am affirming the optimal lineup construction of paying up for the bell cows and scraping the barrel for volume to do so. I’m a huge Gurley fan this week, as I just don’t think the price tag for Bell is going to allow us the floor at the rest of the positions. Injuries create opportunity and that’s where we are finding the bulk of the value this weekend.
Week 10 Cash Game Core
Ryan Fitzpatrick – $4900
I will spare you the redundant speech on why paying down at quarterback in cash games is always to your service and get right to the point. Ryan Fitzpatrick is priced at bottom of the barrel $4900 going up against a Jets defense that has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the 2017 season. Unfortunately, Mike Evans will be serving his one-game suspension this week, but the remainder of the Tampa Bay pass catchers are more than competent and should have no issue wreaking havoc on this sub-par secondary. Fitzpatrick was a starter in the league, not too long ago, and is probably one of the most serviceable backup quarterbacks in the league. With a backfield being manned by aging Doug Martin, and ultimate jag Peyton Barber, it’s pretty certain to say airing it out will be the game plan of choice for the Bucs this weekend. I don’t see Fitz having any issue paying off cash game value.
Todd Gurley – $8700
If you want to pay $9800 for Le’Veon Bell in a game where the Steelers could blow the doors off of the Colts and we see a heavy dose of James Conner, I’m not going to tell you not to. I am, however, going to take the hefty discount and sense of security with Todd Gurley. Gurley provides one of the most secure workloads on the slate, only further cemented by the absence of back up running back Malcolm Brown, in week 10. The Rams are league leaders in points per game, with a whopping 33, and own the highest implied team total of the slate, with a solid 28.5. Gurley has a 61% market share of the team’s rushes, and though I am not in love with the matchup, I think it goes a little beyond the numbers. Houston actually has a top 5 rushing defense, but as we saw last week, they are an entirely different team without Watson. With Savage at the helm, it’s going to be much harder for the Texans to sustain drives, and it should give Gurley every opportunity to rack up fantasy points. Gurley has been a cash game staple for weeks and I don’t see any reason to stray from the beaten path this weekend.
Adam Humphries – $3100
Mike Evans is set to serve his one-game suspension in week 10, and that should open things up for Humphries. At an almost stone cold minimum $3100, the wideout should provide the salary relief needed to pay up at running back, without us having to sacrifice volume. The Jets have allowed the most touchdowns through the air, and Humphries will be matched up with very below average Buster Skrine. Per PFF, Skrine ranks 97th out of 116 qualifying cornerbacks and has a 43.7 grade when in coverage. Everything is working in Humphries favor this weekend and I don’t see a reason to get cute here.
Sterling Shepard – $5500
It’s not often you get a wide receiver 1 for $5500. In his first game back from an ankle injury, Shep played 93% of the snaps and saw a solid 9 targets. It’s pretty clear that he and Engram are going to be options 1A and 1B in New York, and on a team with a very faulty run game, that’s going to be valuable volume moving forward. Shepard has an incredibly great matchup in the slot against San Francisco’s K’Waun Williams in week 10. Williams has been atrocious in the slot this year, allowing a 76% completion rate, along with the secondary as a whole who ranks 27th in pass DVOA. The price has not yet caught up with role or volume, so this weekend is definitely the time to exploit it.
Garrett Celek – $2500
This is gross and great at the same time. Pierre Garcon, Trent Taylor, and George Kittle are all dead. By dead, I mean not playing football this weekend, so they may as well be to us. Celek is pretty much the last of the Mohicans in San Fran, and opportunity and matchup are coming together at just the right time. Tight Ends against the Giants are a thing. They have allowed the most touchdowns to the position with a total of 9, and are allowing an average of 18 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Celek played almost 75% of the snaps in week 9 and should be in for another of much of the same. This isn’t my most comfortable play of the week, but there’s not a whole lot I won’t do to jam in the top tier running backs.