Week 10 is shaping up to be a dousey! Weather concerns once again are affecting the slate with rain and wind (even snow) in Green Bay – Jacksonville and Cleveland – Houston. Both the over/under in this game dropped significantly. Not to mention all of the value we have on the slate, with chalk Mike Davis, chalk Duke Johnson, and a very popular Jakeem Grant with Preston Williams on IR. I expect rosters to be built very similarly this week, which doesn’t always mean that’s a bad way to go, but if you are the type of player like me that plays multiple lines a week, have contingencies!
These five plays I write in the Week 10 Building Blocks are plays that I’m starting my builds with and seeing what I can do from there. I expect to have a generous amount of exposure this week to each of these guys. Let’s get into the plays!
Price: $8000 on DraftKings, $8800 on FanDuel
This slate at Quarterback starts and ends with Kyler for me. I mean what’s not to like here. This guy is having himself a better year than the 2019 Lamar Jackson campaign. He’s breaking every slate that he’s on with his rushing ability. Murray has had three straight games of 67 yards on the ground, at a minimum. Not to mention a rushing touchdown in EVERY game but one. It’s truly remarkable that you’re getting about 12 points rushing on average from him before you factor in his passing ability which has come on late. He has gone for 280+ passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns in three out of his past four games.
He’s actually probably underpriced this week on Draftkings, especially, and maybe even FanDuel, too (Russell is $100 more versus a tougher opponent). This Buffalo defense had a slew of games where they haven’t been tested from the quarterback position. Hell, they’ve played divisional opponent New York Jets twice already. But they did give up 390 passing yards and two scores through the air to Russell last week, and 300+ yards and multiple scores in three straight weeks to Derek Carr, Jared Goff, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. We also have learned that Josh Norman tested positive for COVID and did not travel with the team. Sometimes it really is just as simple as taking what the slate is giving you and everything shapes up for Kyler to smash this week.
Price: $7100 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Speaking of taking what the slate gives you, let’s not look any further than Aaron Jones. Listen, there were two things I wrote down in my notes app early on in the week. One – ‘Fade Packers at your own risk’. Two – ‘Aaron Jones is in a smash spot.’ We all liked this play on the DegeNation Pod this week and when we’re all on a player something is lining up nicely. I’ll be honest, I wanted to put Davante Adams in this article. But the way the weather is shaping up in Green Bay I couldn’t in good faith put Adams in the Week 10 Building Blocks article at his $9,000 price tag. I still do love Rodgers, but let’s get back to Jones.
Jones returned to us fresh off of injury (he probably could have returned sooner if the staff wasn’t so damn cautious) and he made an impact right away. Against a 49ers team that was essentially rolling out their B-squad with injuries and COVID hits, Aaron Jones still saw 20 opportunities. It only amounted to 69 total scrimmage yards, but to have that share in a game where Rodgers throws for 300 yards and four touchdowns was very encouraging. Essentially I look at the Packers offense as either Rodgers+Adams will smash, or Jones will smash if points are coming from this offense. Jones smashing actually really hasn’t happened with Davante Adams in the lineup, but he’s still had decent showings.
Jones has had five games since the start of 2019 where he’s had over 110 scrimmage yards and/or score in games where Davante has played. He also had a game with three scores, but only 93 yards last November at home (Adams still had 7-118). His big games with 150+ scrimmage yards and multiple scores have usually come without Adams.
I say all this to say that with weather concerns and the Packers having the lean on the run, he makes for a great play to build around. I really think the Packers still smash on Sunday, and that will most likely start with Aaron Jones. Maybe not a Dalvin Cook 40-burger incoming and Adams can still have a day, but versus this Houston team that’s allowing the sixth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points to opposing backs, there’s no question that game script should favor Aaron Jones here. If he’s getting the touchdown equity (27 total RedZone opportunities), he’s got a great shot at being the highest scorer at the position this week. Load up Jones with confidence.
Price: $4000 on DraftKings, $5400 on FanDuel
Before I dive in, I want to make something very clear. Mike Davis IS NOT a lock on FanDuel. He’s probably a bad play there considering the touchdown-heavy FanDuel scoring. Secondly, he’s projected to see close to 40 percent ownership there. On Draftkings he lines up nicely with his role. You have a lead back here, who projects to see 85%+ of the backfield touches, at minimum price. This is a lock-and-load spot, at least for me. We discussed this at length (around 20 minutes on the DegeNation Pod) and numerous podcasts have had the debate this week
This is a clear misprice on DraftKings and I want to take advantage here. This site priced up Alexander Mattison when Dalvin Cook was questionable heading into a week. Christian McCaffrey came back from injury in Week 9 and did have a big week. Even so, Mike Davis still has a clear role in this offense with CMC healthy. It’s laughable he’s the minimum price on DraftKings. (Note: a clear misprice, when Mike Davis is coming in at $6700 on the Early Only DraftKings slate).
When these two teams met in Week 2, CMC had 20+ opportunities and Davis still saw 8 catches for 74 yards. Tampa Bay is allowing 6.6 receptions to running backs. Davis has over half of his production coming through the air: 49 targets compared to 85 rushing attempts. I love, too, that he has 10x targets inside the 20 (near 30% usage on the team), confirming he’s got a significant RedZone role. On DraftKings, I feel this week that Davis is good chalk. While I never go 100 percent on a particular player, I’ll be heavily invested in Davis on DraftKings.
Price: $5300 on DraftKings, $5600 on FanDuel
John Brown this week is an easy play for me. He gets to play in one of the friendliest game environments with Buffalo traveling to Arizona. The game total has a projected 56.5 points projected to be scored. Josh Allen does seem to spread the ball around to plenty of options, which can be frustrating. I do like that Brown saw 11 targets versus an attackable Seattle secondary. This week he faces his former team – enter the revenge game narrative! The Arizona secondary is also dealing with injuries to Budda Baker and Dre Kirkpatrick. I believe they are both officially questionable. This game kicks off in the afternoon so we may not know their full status before lock. I really don’t think it matters, though. He’s second on the team in air yards and is tied with Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs with seven targets in the red zone.
His price on DraftKings is enticing, but his price on FanDuel makes absolutely zero sense. He comes in as the 39th (!) highest-priced wide receiver there. No idea how AJ Green and Allen Lazard are priced ahead of him. The John Brown play gets you reasonably affordable exposure to a great game on the slate with a defined role. I’ll be heavy on Brown this week.
TJ Hockenson* (if he plays)
Price: $5,100 on DraftKings, $6200 on FanDuel
I don’t really have a strong feeling at Tight End this week. I brought up Jacob Hollister in the Top Low-Owned Plays video for this week so that should say enough. The one certainty at the tight end position has been T.J. Hockenson. The second-year player will have you tilting could have you tilting lineups by halftime. He somehow always finds a way to salvage his day with 13+ DraftKings points in his past three games. He comes in with another favorable one in week 10, granted he suits up (toe injury but expected to play, hints the asterisk).
With chalk seemingly piling up on Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller, I think we can get a safe floor in Hockenson. Washington has allowed sixth touchdowns to tight ends on the season. A touchdown is really all we’re looking for on FanDuel. On DraftKings, if he gets a couple of extra looks with Kenny Golladay out yet again that could help his floor. Either way, I like getting Hockenson on builds this week to be a little contrarian at the position.
You can follow Ryan Williams on Twitter @RyanAlexander_W – he is one-third of the DegeNation Podcast. Subscribe to our TFA YouTube channel where you can catch more of his DFS content and listen to the DegeNation Podcast each week breaking down the DFS main slate!