Here I thought Week 11 was going to be a fun ride…Week 12 is coming in like, “Hold my beer…” This slate is going to be all about finding the right leverage plays. I firmly believe that and talked about it on the Week 12 DFS Top Low-Owned Video for the week. There will be people jamming in Dalvin Cook onto rosters (at 11K on FanDuel, I will be massively under the field). There are COVID issues spreading like wildfire. Most notably Denver playing a wide receiver at quarterback versus Taysom Hill. Hilarious. Everyone wants to play pieces from Bills-Chargers, but the high-priced ones. It’ll be a week where a couple of pivot/leverage moves will give your rosters a way to be different from the field.
While this piece isn’t that for me – again, check out my video on YouTube for my “contrarian” plays – my building blocks piece this week can be viewed as somewhat contrarian. For this week, there are six plays I write in the Week 12 DFS Building Blocks are plays that I’m starting my builds with and seeing what I can do from there. I expect to have a generous amount of exposure this week to each of these guys. Let’s get into the plays!
Price: $8000 on DraftKings, $9000 on FanDuel
With all the uncertainty on this slate, the one thing that should make you feel good about getting sure-fire points is rostering Patrick Mahomes. I mean…it’s Patrick Mahomes. He’s having yet another MVP-caliber year with a 27-2 touchdown to interception ratio, and already 3,000 passing yards on the season. Mahomes only has one game on the season without multiple touchdowns (the KC defense scored 2x in an easy win vs Denver). He has four games with 3+ passing touchdowns, two of which came back-to-back in weeks 8 & 9. In a game versus Tampa Bay where running the football won’t move the ball much (Tampa 2nd in DVOA vs the run), passing should be plentiful here.
The actual passing numbers versus Tampa don’t seem all that daunting as totals, but only six teams are allowing more passing yards and they’ve allowed 20 passing touchdowns on the year. Did I mention they are also facing the second-most quarterback attempts? We just saw Kansas City in a matchup versus a defense it’s more favorable to pass on than run in New York Jets. In that game, Mahomes went ballistic for 39.6 DraftKings points. That’s against a team that only scored 9 points on the other side. Vegas has this game as the highest total on the slate. If you feel it reaches that total, and you’re not building with Mahomes, you better make sure you have multiple pieces of it. Mahomes is my favorite quarterback to build around this week as I don’t see myself making many teams without a KC pass catcher.
Price: $9500 on DK, $11,000 (!) on FanDuel
Here’s Dalvin Cook once again in a DFS Building Blocks piece. We have to stop meeting like this, Dalvin? What is there to say…he’s the best play on the slate in my opinion going against this Carolina defense that cannot stop the run for a damn. Actually, let me rephrase – on DraftKings, Cook is my favorite play at the running back position. Paying 11,000 on FanDuel for Cook here, you better be damn sure he’s scoring twice with 100 yards. Even then that’s only 22 points…you’ll need about 35+ to feel good about his price tag on FanDuel. Now there’s no Adam Thielen or Irv Smith Jr. and between those two, they account for 21 missing Red Zone targets. No Red Zone targets for Dalvin himself, but he does have the fourth-most Red Zone rushes inside the 20 (39).
Running Backs every week versus Carolina has paid off. Only four teams have allowed more rushing yards than Carolina and three of them played on Thanksgiving. They’ve allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and have been gashed by receiving backs. If Teddy B and co. are able to put up points and get a solid lead here, we can see Dalvin utilized more in the passing game with Thielen missing. He’s garnered at least two targets in every game he’s played in.
Again, what it comes down to for me is Cook is a great build around play with not many RBs to feel great about. Yes, we’ll get Ekeler this week and I love pairing him with Cook. The play I think is playing Cook with another running back over $5000. It’s great leverage as most builds may have him with Brian Hill or Nyheim Hines. On FanDuel, guys like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Josh Jacobs I think are great plays there in tournaments where touchdowns are king and there are no bonus points for 100 yards. Fire up Cook confidently in your Week 12 DFS Building Blocks.
Price: $5400 on DraftKings, $6600 on FanDuel
IF you want how I really feel about the Hunt play this week, go back to the 44-minute mark of this week’s DegeNation Pod. Kev and I argued for what felt like 30 minutes over this play. If you don’t want to go back in listen, here are the cliff notes: a) On DraftKings especially, Hunt is too cheap for the production he’s providing. That leads to b) the role he has in this offense is too valuable to pass up for me this week as I find RB fairly gross. And lastly for c) the matchup is unbelievable.
Only Carolina and Las Vegas on this slate are allowing more DraftKings and FanDuel points to the running back position. The thing going under the radar about this matchup, too, is that production is inflated by what receiving backs are able to do versus Jacksonville. They allow the sixth most running back receptions and the 10th most yards to the running back position. Hunt has Chubb beat in this category with 22 receptions to Chubb’s three. Chubb has only seen one target since returning from injury. Hunt has actually out-snapped Chubb as well the past two weeks. Let’s face it, this is a true committee, and the “backup” here is a former NFL starter and a damn good one. This may be the best 1-2 backfield in the NFL, and while I’ll have exposure to both, Hunt is likely to be my build-around piece at a cheaper price tag.
Price: $4600 on DraftKings, $5700 on FanDuel
I don’t usually write up six plays here, but I wanted to bring up Nyheim Hines – mainly for the purposes of Dalvin Cook being so highly-priced on FanDuel. It’s TOUGH to make builds that have Davlin on FanDuel this week and pricing is usually softer there. Yet people will still try and jam in Cook and I’ll probably have only a couple shares of him there. A perfect pivot play is Nyheim Hines. He just played this Titans team two weeks ago and smashed them for 115 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans are allowing the second-most receiving touchdowns to running backs (5) and Hines is sixth in running back receptions.
I will probably have a ton of Hines on FanDuel as he’s the RB26 there, and without Taylor should be in-line for a decent share. We’re still going to have to worry about Jordan Wilkins getting run as the RB2 for the Colts has seen at least 24% of the snaps since Week 7. Hines is also a no-brainer play on DraftKings, I’ll have a ton over there for his PPR-upside. Just because of the nature of the running back position on FanDuel I wanted to make sure to highlight Hines here as I expect him to be the starter Sunday.
Price: $5500 on DraftKings, $5400 on FanDuel
Welcome to the DFS Building Blocks, Cole Beasley. You haven’t graced this article all season long. Look, I want pieces of the Bills-Chargers game. I just don’t want my rosters to look like everyone else’s with Allen and Diggs jammed in. I think Beasley makes sense both for game stacks and in mini-stacks with Austin Ekeler. Any builds I run with Beasley in tournaments will definitely have one run-back play from the Chargers. Let’s get into the play itself.
John Brown is out for this game. He has missed two games (weeks 5 & 7) this season and has another where he only played about 40 percent of the snaps (week 3 vs LAR). In those games, Beasley’s lines are:
6-100 vs LAR (19 DK points)
6-53 vs TEN (11.3 DK points)
11-112 vs NYJ (25.2 DK Points)
Chris Harris could be back for this Week 12 matchup, making life a little bit harder for Beasley. He was activated to the roster on Friday. I would temper expectations if Harris is officially ruled in. If Harris is out, I’ll have plenty of Cole Beasley in game stacks, one-offs, cash games, and tournaments. He would be close to a lock for double-digit points. If he finds pay dirt, he’ll get close to 5x his price tag. His price is very enticing on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Price: $7000 on DraftKings, $8000 on FanDuel
Tyreek was going to be in this piece, and I will have a LOT of him on Sunday. Watkins being healthy does put a damper on my Hill expectations. Secondary woes for Tampa Bay should keep everyone in play. Much like my thoughts on RB this week, the tight end position is gross. When we have to consider Mike Gesicki, Kyle Rudolph, and Tyler Eifert, it’s just never good.
It’s always a hard pill to swallow to pay up for this position. Kelce has been on a tear lately, granted without Watkins out there and in very favorable matchups. I alluded to in the Mahomes write up that the way to attack Tampa Bay is through the air. We may not get the eight catches for 100 yards in this game we’ve seen recently from Kelce. He had two scores in three of those games by the way. You better believe that’s in his range of outcomes, though. Outside of Waller, I don’t feel comfortable *banking* on any other tight end reaching that.
This Tampa defense is still facing the fifth-most targets to tight ends and has allowed six touchdowns on the year. It would not surprise me one bit to see Kelce teams lifting teams right up the leaderboards on Sunday Afternoon, frustrating those that rostered cheap tight ends on most builds to jam in high-priced wide receivers. Kelce is by far my favorite tight end and lands him firmly in the Week 12 DFS Building Blocks piece.
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