Week 6 DFS – TFA Contrary-Ten – Late Night Edition
Week 6 is going to be a fun slate to play on with many of the games expected to be blowouts, at least according to Vegas. Don’t set your Week 6 DFS lineups this week without reading the 10 Contrary-Ten plays I like this week in GPPs.
Aaron Rodgers (Price: $7300 on Draftkings; $9000 on Fanduel)
Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best quarterback in football. I know that and hopefully, you know that, too. That’s a given. He’s in play on every slate he’s an option for DFS. Yet this week that doesn’t seem to be the case for some and I don’t understand why. Rodgers is tied for the league-lead in passing touchdowns this year and has thrown for at least three touchdowns in each of the Packers last three games. Maybe it’s because he hasn’t had the yardage (DK gives a three-point bonus for 300 passing yards) and is facing a Vikings defense that many believe to be stout. However, the Vikings are ranked 21 in pass DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Early on in his career, Rodgers excelled versus Minnesota but has had pedestrian numbers against him since his season-ending injury in 2013. We saw Rodgers upside against the Vikings in Week 15 last year when he had 347 yards and five total scores. Due to his price, Rodgers is my favorite tournament play on Fanduel this week.
Projected ownership: 6.1 percent on Draftkings and on Fanduel
Philip Rivers (Price: $6600 on Draftkings; $7200 on Fanduel)
Now let’s talk about my favorite player at the Quarterback position on Draftkings. I love playing Rivers in DFS. Yes, he’s frustrating more often than not, but win or lose this guy will keep chucking the ball. He’s had at least 33 attempts in every game this season. Plus, Rivers has three games with 20+ points on DK. In the game versus Kansas City where Rivers threw three interceptions I’m willing to chalk up as an outlier. Rivers has looked great the past two weeks throwing for five touchdowns and only one interception. This Raiders defense was one that we thought would give up points in bunches to opposing offenses and they are ranked 30 in pass DVOA. I took a dive into his career numbers versus this Oakland defense for the DegeNation Pod and in six of his last ten games versus OAK, he’s thrown for multiple scores. Last season, Rivers best fantasy performance came in Oakland when he had 359 yards and four touchdowns.
Projected ownership: 1.1 percent on Draftkings; 5.3 percent on Fanduel
Honorable Mention(s): Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Josh McCown
Todd Gurley (Price: $7700 on Draftkings; $8400 on Fanduel)
Shout out to all the Todd Gurley truthers – this guy is the real deal. Ignore all the trolls who are disappointed with his Week 5 performance against Seattle. Those games are always a grind and the narrative would be a lot different this week if Gurley would have scored that touchdown in the first quarter instead of it being ruled a fumble – a five-point swing. The usage he’s seeing from the RB position cannot be ignored as he’s fourth among RBs in receiving yards and eighth in receptions. Gurley is actually leading his team in receptions with 22, which is amazing to think about how much of a difference Head Coach Sean McVay has made.
Projected ownership: 18.6 percent on Draftkings; 19.5 percent on Fanduel
Devonta Freeman (Price: $7400 on Draftkings; $8500 on Fanduel)
Devonta Freeman at home. Book it. Lock it. Play it. It’s a wrap.
No, but seriously, this guy is awesome at home and it has mainly to do with the finding the end zone. Freeman has 21 total touchdowns in 25 career home games. That’s eight more than he has on the road. He has scored a touchdown in seven straight home games and six of his eight career multi-touchdown games have come at home. The Falcons play Miami – a team that is averaging a lowly 10.5 points per game this season. Atlanta is a huge favorite this week (-11) so Freeman should be fed the ball. Even with Tevin Coleman lurking, the fact that Mohamed Sanu is expected to miss the game makes it a wash for me.
Projected ownership: 10.3 percent on Draftkings; 7.9 percent on Fanduel
Chris Thompson (Price: $5000 on Draftkings; $6000 on Fanduel)
This is an ultimate GPP play, mainly due to Draftkings scoring format. One thing I don’t like to do when playing DFS is target players in a timeshare, but Chris Thompson gets a pass because of what I’ve seen from him this season. Prior to disappointing versus Kansas City in Week 4, he had three straight games of 15 or more Draftkings points, and two back-to-back games of 25 or more points on Draftkings. Now Jay Gruden came out this week and said Samaje Perine would get a bulk of the carries for Washington versus San Francisco. Somehow that’s supposed to scare me off of Thompson? Chris Thompson doesn’t need carries to succeed. He makes plays in the passing game and the 49ers are a bottom defense (No. 26 DVOA) versus the pass and fairly decent (No. 14 DVOA) versus the run. Not only that, but Perine really hasn’t been that great only averaging 3.1 yards per carry. If he can’t get going, look for the Redskins to get Thompson involved often and at only 5,000 he makes for a nice tournament pivot off of Andre Ellington and the New Orleans running backs.
Projected ownership: 2.2 percent on Draftkings; 1.1 percent on Fanduel
Honorable Mention(s): Melvin Gordon, Mike Gillislee (Fanduel), Buck Allen, Alvin Kamara
Keenan Allen (Price: $7900 on Draftkings; $7200 on Fanduel)
Keenan Allen might be close to a lock to me on Fanduel when you consider the price discrepancy we’re seeing for Week 6 DFS. Think about this: Allen is the 12th-highest WR on Fanduel and the fourth-highest priced WR on Draftkings. Uh, yeah…makes no sense. Allen is leading the Chargers in every significant receiving category for this team and has seen double-digit targets in all but one game. Where Allen has been lacking is in the touchdown department – only one on the season – but that all changes this week versus Oakland. Rivers actually has missed Allen a few times this season on near touchdowns. Allen has seven Red Zone targets in 2017 – that’s good enough to tie him for third. That one is actually his only touchdown on the year, go figure. Oakland CBs Gareon Conley and David Amerson cannot guard this Allen. I think he has one of the highest floors on the slate and hopefully, Rivers can get it together and connect with him to build my DFS bankroll up. On Fanduel, Allen should be a building block for you this week.
Projected ownership: 7.5 percent on Draftkings; 22.5 percent on Fanduel
Michael Crabtree (Price: $5800; $7000 on Fanduel)
You’ll have to excuse me wanting to stack this Oakland-Los Angeles Chargers game, but I can’t help it. I really think this game has the chance to go way over with Derek Carr slated to start. We have to look at this situation here with an open mind. Pro Football Focus has Casey Hayward (who’s amazing) slated to shadow Crabtree, thus lowering Crabtree’s ownership. Crabtree low-key has had his way against Hayward over the years. In 2016, Hayward allowed ONE touchdown the entire season…to whom you ask? That’s right – Michael Crabtree. In the past three games versus Hayward, Crabtree has averaged eight targets, five catches and 59 yards (two vs. SD in 2016 and one vs. GB in 2015). Those seem like pedestrian numbers, but he scored in two in those matchups – increasing his upside. Something else that intrigues me is that Crabtree has scored in each game vs. the Chargers since joining Oakland. From a GPP standpoint, King Crab is one of my favorite plays of the week.
Note on Derek Carr’s injury: Stephania Bell of ESPN had said that Carr should return from this back injury relatively soon. I’m not concerned if she’s not concerned as she’s the GOAT on injuries for fantasy football.
Projected ownership: 11.3 percent on Draftkings; 8.6 percent on Fanduel
Davante Adams (Price: $5700 on Draftkings; $7200 on Fanuel)
Adams saw a slight increase on Fanduel in salary from Week 5 by $300 but that’s just not enough. He has one less target (9) inside the 20 on the year than Larry Fitzgerald with six of them being receptions, tying him for first among all WRs. Danny Amendola and Tyrell Williams are the same prices on Draftkings which is #egregious. Lock and load for Davante Adams this week. The Green Bay Packers Red Zone and target monster have a strong rapport with Aaron Rodgers. He has two games on the season with double-digit targets and hasn’t seen less than five targets a game. That’s with a majority of the receiver corps being healthy. Something to monitor will be the back injury Jordy Nelson is nursing. He’s practicing but a limited Nelson could mean more looks for Adams.
Oh, and I can’t forget to mention, as my co-host of the DFS DegeNation Pod Eliot Crist so eloquently said, “Anyone playing against Trae Waynes, I want a piece of.” Waynes is PFF’s No. 90 ranked CB.
Projected ownership: 9.6 percent on Draftkings; 6.3 percent on Fanduel
Desean Jackson (Price: $5800 on Draftkings; $6400 on Fanduel)
*Looks up WR/CB matchup on Pro Football Focus…see’s Justin Bethel is his projected matchup…logs-in to Draftkings/Fanduel/Draft to play Desean Jackson…log out*
That’s pretty much my thoughts on DeSean Jackson this week. This HAS to be the week. Bethel has a 44.2 grade on Pro Football Focus and for those of you wondering, yes – that is bad. Shout out to Tyler Buecher who posted this stat earlier this week:
Those touchdowns went to Brice Butler, Kenny Golladay, and Torrey Smith, respectively. Yeah…Desean is making it on a ton of teams for me this week. Jackson just had five catches for 106 yards on nine targets in another favorable matchup versus the leaky New England Patriots defense. I wrote in my Week 2 DFS Contrary-Ten how the Jameis-DeSean connection started brewing in the offseason and on Hard Knocks. There will be games where DeSean “breaks the slate” and I’m hoping this is one of them.
Projected ownership: 6.4 percent on Draftkings; 3.4 percent on Fanduel
Honorable mention(s): Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks, Jamison Crowder/Josh Doctson, Marvin Jones, Jr., Robby Anderson, Taylor Gabriel
Coby Fleener (Price: $3200 on Draftkings; $5100 on Fanduel)
As I’ve said before, and I’ll continue to say it, a chalky Coby Fleener is one that I don’t want any part of, but a Coby Fleener that should see ownership under five percent is something I can get behind. Especially in a game with the highest expected over/under on the slate. There are so many options I’ve heard thrown around for the Tight End position on a week where I don’t really feel comfortable with many plays at the position. Brees numbers are phenomenal coming out of the bye weeks, and last year coming out of the bye Fleener had his best game of the season – a line of 6/74/2 with one of the two touchdowns coming on the ground. Fleener has six total touchdowns since joining the Saints, and four of them have come at the Superdome. At only $3200 on Draftkings, I’m playing Fleener on a ton of teams to get exposure to this game that exudes fantasy goodness.
Projected ownership: 4.3 percent on Draftkings; 1.5 percent on Fanduel
Honorable mention(s): Rob Gronkowski, Hunter Henry, George Kittle, Austin Hooper