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Week 7 Cash Game Core

Week 7 is one of the most difficult slates I have come across when trying to construct a cash game lineup. The bye weeks are in full force, and most of the elite go-to options are in discouraging matchups. However, we press on. We pay down at quarterback, find the cheapest bell cow back on the slate, and pay whatever we have to for wideout targets. Please enjoy Week 7 Cash Game Core.

Week 7 Cash Game Core

Week 7 Cash Game Core

Deshone Kizer – $4900

This is not a drill. The Browns quarterback carousel continues, but Kizer has been named the starter for week 7.  Last week’s performance by Kevin Hogan was one of the worst we’ve seen from any quarterback this year. My opinion is the Browns know what they have in Kessler, let Hogan run rampant last week, and will give Kizer week 7 to get back on track. It’s no secret that the Titans possess one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, ranked 25th in pass DVOA, making this an excellent matchup for a young quarterback, (coming off his own pseudo bye week), who will be playing at home. In each of his games this year, even the ones he didn’t finish, Kizer has at least 5 rushing attempts. The mobile quarterback is invaluable in cash games, providing a high floor and an easy path to meeting value. Follow me for a minute. Deshone Kizer has started and completed 4 games this season. He reached at least 4x value in two of them and barely met 1x value in the other two. Those games where he struggled to reach 1x came against Baltimore and Cincinnati, who rank and 2nd and 7th in pass DVOA. I will always be scraping the bottom of the barrel for my cash quarterback and Kizer is one of the best points per dollar options on this tightly priced slate.

Jay Ajayi – $6200

There’s just not a lot to love at running back in week 7. You have some of the elite options in decent matchups, but paying top dollar for RB means suffering substantially at wide receiver. I’m using a “get what you pay for” game plan this week.  The cheapest of the workhorse backs in week 7, Ajayi is set up perfectly to meet cash value. As always, I want volume, volume, and volume at this position. Ajayi owns an 85% market share of his team’s rushing attempts, and ranks 7th in the NFL rushing attempts this year, just in front of Melvin Gordon and just behind Ezekiel Elliot. Unfortunately, he ranks among the likes of Isaiah Crowell and Jonathan Stewart in the touchdown-department, with a whopping zero. Ajayi has been on the wrong side of touch down variance this year, and that’s due to turn around. The Jets rank 25th in rushing DVOA, rank dead last in rushing yards allowed when they are on the road (170 and are tied for 3rd most rushing touchdowns allowed (5.) I like the price almost as much as I like the matchup.

Robert Woods – $4000

This is gross, I won’t pretend it’s not. Finding value on this slate is no easy feat, but Woods is probably the most viable value option we have at the position. Since week 3, Woods has seen at least six targets in every game and is currently leading the team with an almost 22% market share. Sammy Watkins will be held in check this week by Patrick Peterson, leaving Woods and Kupp to take over receiving duties. Woods gets a great matchup with Arizona’s Justin Bethel. Bethel grades out as PFF’s 13th worst corner, out of 113 qualifiers, and through six weeks, has allowed six touchdowns. This game has a healthy 47 total, and the Rams rank 1st in points scored this year. Woods should have more than enough opportunity to hit 3x value.

Jarvis Landry – $6800

Back to the well on a Parker-less Miami Team. Landry has seen his price jump, but I don’t think enough to account for his volume. Landry accounts for one-third of the team’s targets, and I don’t think the price reflects that.  In last week’s surprising upset over Atlanta, Parker saw 14 targets, hauling in 8 of them for 67 yards and even found the end zone. With Parker still not practicing, and not expected to play in week 7, I would expect the same volume with the Jets coming to town. Landry will see Buster Skrine in the slot, and while It’s not a dream matchup, Skrine is allowing is a 65% completion rate. Landry is probably the safest play on the board for me at wideout, though if Parker plays I am probably looking elsewhere.

Kyle Rudolph – $3900

Tight end is pretty gross this week, however, Kyle Rudolph is one of the very few mispricings. Rudolph is averaging almost 6 targets a game and coming off two back to back games with 9 targets. He accounts for 20% of the Vikings total targets, and with Diggs looking unlikely to suit up this weekend, he should maintain his recent boost in volume. The matchup with Baltimore is ideal. The Ravens have dethroned the Browns as the tight end turnstile, ranking 32nd in DVOA against the tight end. Rudolph has an almost 30% share of Minnesota’s red zone targets and should be able to find the end zone this weekend in a dream spot. Sub $4k is too cheap for his floor and ceiling.

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