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Dynasty ADP – Risers and Fallers

What’s the beautiful thing about the 2018 fantasy season coming to an end?  The beginning of the 2019 season, obviously!  While player values are fresh in our minds, I wanted to take a look at dynasty ADP for January and predict some risers and fallers by the time August rolls around.  Here’s what I came up with.

FALLERS

juju smith-schuster dynasty adp

Let’s start with the negatives, shall we?

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster, 12th overall – To be completely honest, it wouldn’t surprise me if the first round of ADP doesn’t change between now and August.  If I’m going to predict someone rising into the first round, however, somebody has to take the fall, and JuJu is the low hanging fruit.  With so much drama in the P-I-T, (seemingly) everyone’s favorite NFL player just might fall into the second round.  Maybe it’s Melvin Gordon at 9 if dynasty leaguers are worried about his injuries, or possibly Davante Adams at 10 since he never seems to get the respect he should.  If you were forcing me to pick one, however, I’ll go with JuJu.
  • Kerryon Johnson, 31st overall – This one surprised me.  Kerryon showed some awesome flashes throughout the season, with two 100+ yard games, and three games with 5+ receptions.  Johnson missed the last six games of the season with a knee injury, and combining that with the shiny new toys entering the NFL plus injury risers (Derrius Guice and Jerick McKinnon come to mind), I could see Kerryon slipping into the fourth round of dynasty ADP.
  • Tarik Cohen, 46th overall – The fourth round is simply too high for me to take a running back that relies on receptions so heavily and that had six games with fewer than 10 PPR points.  Cohen showed a nice ceiling with four 20+ PPR performances, but for the same reasons as Kerryon (incoming rookies and other risers), I’m expecting Cohen to be more of a fifth to sixth round fixture come August.

RISERS

mike evans chris godwin dynasty adp

  • Amari Cooper, 25th overall – Starting off the third round in January’s ADP, the Cooper truthers will push his stock up as the offseason wears on and will easily be taken in the second round by the time the season kicks off.  Since playing his first game for Dallas Week 9, Cooper is 8th in both targets and receptions, 9th in yards, and 4th in receiving touchdowns in the NFL.  His 76 targets are THIRTY more than the next wide receiver (Gallup at 46).  The arrow is pointing all the way back up for Amari.
  • Mike Evans, 14th overall and Chris Godwin, 52nd overall – Both of these Tampa Bay WRs will be moving up draft boards this offseason, and they can thank Bruce Arians.  These selections are also based on my belief in Jameis Winston.  I’m not going to say he’s an elite NFL quarterback, but you could do much worse for your fantasy QB.  Arians will get the most out of Winston, and Evans and Godwin are going to benefit.  With Evans sitting at 14th overall, I believe he could be the one to replace JuJu in the first round.
  • Allen Robinson, 56th overall – The Chicago offense disappointed as a whole this season, as they relied on their absurd defense to win their games.  The last time we saw ARob, however, he was dominating the Eagles secondary on his way to a ten catch, 143 yard, one TD playoff performance.  We typically see defenses regress year to year (see Jaguars, Jacksonville) and I’d expect the offense to improve in their second year under Nagy.  I’m buying Robinson as a solid WR2 going forward and he’ll end up in the early to mid fourth round.

DEEP SHOTS

For two guys outside of the top 100, I’m expecting Duke Johnson (116) to fall further with the emergence of Nick Chubb, and Robert Foster (125) to climb the ranks.  Once Freddie Kitchens took over in Cleveland, Chubb averaged 19.75 touches per game to go along with 102 scrimmage yards.  Those numbers for Duke were 5.6 touches for 30.5 yards per game.

Robert Foster was a waiver wire gem as he caught balls from the most hated quarterback ever – Josh Allen.  Over the final seven games, Foster had at least 94 yards or a touchdown in five of those.  The Bills will absolutely be adding offensive talent, but Foster could provide a nice return later in drafts.

 

That’ll do it!  Let me know who you see rising and falling by leaving a comment or hitting me up on Twitter!

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