This preseason is pivotal for many NFL players. Some must prove their health as they recover from serious injury. Some must deal with new competition. Others are former early round picks who have underperformed while others are late round picks fighting for a roster spot. This is my first installment of Dynasty Reaction: Training Camp Week 1.
Let’s jump right into a quick discussion of some notable performances by such players – either positive or negative – from a dynasty fantasy football perspective through the first week of training camp. As always, continue the discussion and share your thoughts with me on twitter at @threedownhack.
All ADP figures are the most recent (July) from DLF.
Top 50 ADP
Keenan Allen (ADP26/WR16) may be the riskiest hold in dynasty fantasy football. He is one of just ten post-merger WRs to post at least a 215-2500 receiving line in their first three seasons and by age 23. Now 25, he is capable of being a fantasy WR1 for the better part of the next decade. But one more injury could permanently devalue him in dynasty.
Eleven months removed from his ACL tear, Allen is off to a fantastic start to camp. Use this information to either bolster your confidence in holding him or help your case in selling him.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) July 29, 2017
I feature Dalvin Cook (ADP38/RB13) as a top redraft undervalued player in an upcoming article with TFA. It’s a similar story for dynasty. Media reports and coach quotes from Vikings camp have raved about Cook. OC Pat Shurmur is even praising Cook’s ability in pass protection, while one writer speculated that Cook could end up a more complete player than Adrian Peterson.
— 1500 ESPN (@1500ESPN) August 2, 2017
It is bold but it speaks to the quality of Cook’s week. He is my dynasty RB6 (full rankings here) and is being selected nine to 15 startup spots later than Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, and Christian McCaffrey.
In this article from last week, I targeted Carlos Hyde (ADP57/RB18) as a player to buy before camps opened. Hyde’s offseason ADP steadily fell despite the arrival of Kyle Shanahan and minimal new competition in the form of a fourth round pick and an undrafted free agent. Once practices began I expected Hyde to shine and that is exactly what has happened. Hyde’s value should continue to rise; the time to buy was this offseason but his current cost still holds upside.
Samaje Perine‘s (ADP73/RB25) ADP has steadily risen since Washington selected him in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. He performed well in summer OTAs but reportedly struggled with ball security and pass protection in the first week of camp. Meanwhile, Rob Kelley has been named the starter and is handling most first team reps. It would be unusual for a fourth round pick to be named the starter over a returning incumbent during the first week of camp, so let your leaguemates overreact to this news.
Per playerprofiler.com, Kelley has a 5th percentile College Dominator Rating (market share metric) and is a 2nd percentile athlete (SPARQ Rating).
Perine is the most talented back on Washington’s roster, but his RB25 price tag is rich. My suggestion is to let this camp news marinate, let your league-mates see Kelley take first team reps, then buy Perine when his price becomes more palatable. This week’s news is a start.
Top 150 ADP
Giovani Bernard‘s (ADP146/RB46) dynasty ADP took a hit when he tore his ACL in November, then dipped even further when the Bengals drafted Joe Mixon.
Mixon is a special talent but Bernard was the RB the coaches and media raved about this week. He appears fully recovered.
ICYMI: Giovani Bernard has been the talk of the town in Cincinnati https://t.co/pN3kUtGtAe
— Cincy Jungle (@CincyJungle) July 29, 2017
The true workhorse RB is rare in today’s NFL. If Mixon becomes a featured back along the lines of David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott, Bernard’s contract gives him an out after this season. At age 25 with an impressive career of production he should be able to find volume with another team. Short of such a workload for Mixon, I believe that Jeremy Hill’s role is more threatened than Bernard’s. In either scenario, a healthy Gio Bernard is currently priced at an historical low.
It was not a good week for Kevin White (ADP102/WR50). The tweet below speaks for itself.
— SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) August 1, 2017
First round WRs can only retain value for so long without on-field production. White needs to start producing in order to stop his ADP freefall.
Devin Funchess (ADP182) has seemingly shined each preseason only to fall short of regular season expectations. Do not give up on him. He is just 23 years old, is in a favorable situation and was named daily Offensive MVP of camp four times last week.
Malachi Dupre (ADP235) should have been selected earlier than the seventh round of the NFL Draft. He has an impressive pedigree dating back to his days as a top 20 national high school recruit. Now at age 21, he has the size, athleticism and production (volume-adjusted for LSU’s passing attack) to be a successful NFL WR. He performed well last week and presents a nice buying opportunity at an inexpensive price.
Continue the discussion with the TFA crew and me on Twitter. Who else had a noteworthy week and is a good move for Dynasty?