A Higher Than TFA Consensus Dynasty Lineup
The latest TFA dynasty fantasy football rankings can be found here. My rankings are included and place some players much higher than consensus.
Here we field a lineup with six of these players and discuss why I am higher on them than the rest of the TFA Dynasty crew.
QB10. Tyrod Taylor (7 Above Consensus)
Tyrod Taylor ranked 24th and 25th in pass attempts in two seasons as an NFL starting QB, but he still manages to produce through the air with efficient and aggressive downfield passing. “Tygod” ranked third in Air Yards per Attempt in both seasons.
But Taylor’s main value is in the rushing game. His elite elusiveness and 4.51 speed enabled T-Mobile to lead all QBs in rush yards (580) and TDs (6) in 2016 while finishing second and fourth in those categories in 2015.
This combination of efficient passing and rushing production leads to the following ranks:
Fantasy Points per Dropback 2016 (2015): 8th (3rd)
Fantasy Points per Game: 11th (7th)
Buffalo’s new offensive coordinator, Rick Dennison, is a Taylor advocate and was his position coach in Baltimore in 2014. Dennison was raised in the Mike Shanahan zone based run system, which seems an excellent match for Taylor’s athleticism and deep passing efficiency. Get Tyrod Taylor on the perimeter and let him push the ball downfield off play action while adding a healthy Sammy Watkins to the mix.
The scheme also appears to fit Buffalo’s offensive line. In 2016, that unit led the NFL in yards before contact (3.39) on inside zone runs (Tennessee was second at 3.05) and was second (2.10) for outside zone runs (Atlanta; 2.11).
RB9. C.J. Prosise (8 Above Consensus)
It is 22-year-old C.J. Prosise‘s combination of athleticism, explosion and receiving skills that places him among my top ten dynasty RBs. At 6-0, 220-pounds, the converted wide receiver flashed his talent between various sprains and a Week 11 shoulder fracture that ended his rookie season. In limited action, Prosise managed an attractive stat line and added a dimension otherwise lacking in the Seattle backfield.
C.J. Prosise led all NFL RBs in Yards Per Touch (8.1) and Catch Rate (89.5%). He was sixth in Fantasy Points per Opportunity (1.24), third in YAC per Touch (2.3) and 13th in Fantasy Points per Snap (0.42).
Prosise is assured action in a passing game tied to a top young QB in Russell Wilson. Seattle projects to spend a lower percentage of total salary on its OL in 2017 than any other team. In this context, bet on the 220-pound former WR who runs a 4.48, not Thomas Rawls, the UDFA with 22 career catches or Eddie Lacy, the free agent with a penchant for “China food” reported to be 30 pounds over his last listed playing weight with contract incentives to hit 255-pounds by May.
RB10. Isaiah Crowell (11 Above Consensus)
Isaiah Crowell finished 2016 among the top ten RBs in Yards After Contact. He was explosive in the running game with a long of 85 yards and had a top ten breakaway run rate.
This big play production leads to questions about sustainability. 16% of Crowell’s total yards were gained on two carries and 26% on five carries.
Such questions may be mitigated by Crowell’s newfound involvement in the passing game and the improving Cleveland offensive line.
In 2016 Crowell caught 40 passes on 53 targets. That’s 1.3 fewer targets per game than teammate and #ZeroRB darling Duke Johnson, whom Crowell out-touched 238-126.
Opposite the Seahawks, no team projects to spend a higher percentage of total salary on its offensive line in 2017 than the Browns. Improved line play, game script, and pass game production could make Crowell less dependent on big plays.
Isaiah Crowell went undrafted but has the pedigree of an early round pick. He entered the University of Georgia as the top prep RB in the country and rushed for 185-850-5 as a true freshman before off-field issues pushed him to Alabama State.
Cleveland appears committed to the 24-year-old restricted free agent after placing a second round tender on him.
WR20. Terrelle Pryor (13 Above Consensus)
Talent meets opportunity as Terrelle Pryor joins Washington on a one-year, $6 million deal.
Pryor uses his size (6-4, 233-pounds) and speed (4.41; 69th percentile athletic profile) to get downfield and win contested catches. In 2016, he was a top ten WR in both Air Yards and Contested Catch Rate. This fits Kirk Cousins, who ranked second in Net Yards per Attempt and complements 5-8, 185-lbs Jamison Crowder, a YAC monster whose 8.1-yard Average Depth of Target complements Pryor’s (14.0).
36% of Washington’s receiving targets and 64% of WR targets follow the departure of Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.
Before 2016, Pryor had two career receptions versus 303 pass attempts as a QB with Oakland. Then he posted his breakout receiving line of 77-1007-4. At 27 years old with an above average athletic profile, Terrelle Pryor possesses developmental upside and tread on his tires.
WR31. Kenny Britt (18 Above Consensus)
Kenny Britt has shown the ability to produce in fantasy football despite bad situations. The 2016 Los Angeles Rams ranked 31st in Yards per Attempt, 27th in Pass Attempts and 31st in QB Rating.
Britt still finished 25th in Fantasy Points per Game. He was 19th in Air Yards and 14th in Yards per Target while being targeted by Case Keenum (QB Rating: 76.4) and Jared Goff (63.6). He established himself as the best receiving option on the team and commanded a 30% Market Share of Receiving Yards.
Now 28 years old, he enters another uncertain situation, but the Browns may be trending up. The 6-3 Britt looks to be a good complement to young 5-11 speedster Corey Coleman, whose Average Depth of Target in 2016 was 13.9 yards to Britt’s 11.4.
WR36. Quincy Enunwa (23 Above Consensus)
I am flexing a WR to cover the TE position. The top ten tight ends in 2016 produced the fewest points since 2010. It is a devalued position for which my rankings do not differ from consensus and is to be disrupted by the talented 2017 rookie class.
Some analysts term Quincy Enunwa as a glorified TE. I disagree. At 6-2, 225-pounds with elite speed, Enunwa wins from the slot and across the formation but favorably comps to a receiver.
Enunwa wins contested catches (#11 Contested Catch Rate) and gains YAC, which produced 43% of his 857 receiving yards in 2016.
His 2016 overall Catch Rate of 55% ranks 34th of the 41 WRs with at least 100 targets. For context, the Jets WRs as a unit had a Catch Rate of 57%, while Brandon Marshall ranked last among those 41 NFL WRs with a 46% rate.
The Jets released Marshall and his team leading 128 targets. 30-year old Eric Decker (hip, shoulder surgeries) may not be healed for Week 1. The Jets could cut Decker and save $5.75 million as part of a rebuild. The depth chart is open for Quincy Enunwa.
Uncertainty creates buy low opportunities in dynasty fantasy football. Uncertainty at QB and WR adds to a compelling buy low situation on Enunwa at his March ADP of 147 Overall (WR71).