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Using ADP for Trades

Average draft position (ADP) is an invaluable tool for the fantasy community.  Too often, however, dynasty players make the mistake of only referencing current ADP.  Something I use past ADP data for is to find buy and sell targets heading into the season.  In this article, I’m going to look back at July 2017 data and give you some examples of using ADP for trades.  Let’s get to it!
*Note: All ADP data referenced is coming from Dynasty League Football.

SELLS

Jerick McKinnon sell

For both buys and sells, I’m looking mostly for the widest disparities, but particularly for sells.  Look for players who you believe have hit their ceiling as far as price goes.  Typically rookies move the most, especially those who were taken later in the NFL Draft and surpass expectations.  Other upward-movers include those that were in backup or secondary roles and have taken over primary ones.  Here are the players I’m looking at trading away based only off ADP.
Alvin Kamara, +63 spots – Kamara started moving up draft boards the closer we got to the regular season, but only made it to 72.67 in July 2017.  Looking at this month’s ADP, Kamara makes his way up to 9.17.  The rookie from Tennessee had one of the most efficient seasons we’ve ever seen last year.  Kamara had a touchdown rate of 6.5% and managed 7.7 yards per touch.  For comparison, Le’Veon Bell’s numbers were 2.7% and 4.8, respectively.  Even if he does manage to move up draft boards, his movement is limited.

Evan Engram, +52 spots – Another rookie who took advantage of their situation.  There’s no doubting that Engram had a great rookie season, but he also had everything go his way.  Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Brandon Marshall combined to miss 28 full games.  With OBJ and Shepard healthy and the addition of Bae-Quon Barkley, there’s no chance Engram sees 115 targets again.

Marvin Jones, +56 spots – With Marvin moving from the tenth round of ADP to the fifth, it may be time to place him on the trading block.  If he were to repeat the season he had last year, I can’t foresee him climbing up draft boards much further.  Part of my reasoning for wanting to part with Jones is Mike Clay’s tweet showing the decline in Marvin’s target share with Kenny Golladay active.  For those too lazy to click the link, Jones’ target share dropped to 16% from 27% when Golladay was on the field.

Jerick McKinnon, +183 spots – Yes, you read that correctly.  “Jet” McKinnon rocketed his way up 183 spots in one year after going from Vikings backup to Kyle Shanahan’s hand-picked, shiny new toy.  Kareem Hunt is less than 600 yards behind McKinnon’s CAREER rush yards.  The aforementioned Alvin Kamara lags behind McKinnon’s career reception yards by just 158.  I completely understand the hype behind McKinnon heading into the season, but you have to keep things in perspective.  Shanahan has said that “Jet” will assume the Devonta Freeman role, implying a timeshare.  McKinnon could absolutely crush it this year, but there are enough question marks that his current of ADP of 30.83 would have me fielding trade offers.

Honorable mentions: Deshaun Watson (+114), Aaron Jones (+100), Will Fuller (+62)

 

BUYS

Marcus Mariota buy

Buys in dynasty are going to be more team-dependent than sells are, with player age being the biggest factor.  Because of that, I’m going to give some general buy targets as well as for those contending.

Marcus Mariota, -59 spots – Classic overreaction here.  Last year, Mariota was hampered by injuries and offensive philosophy.  Both of these things figure to improve this year.  New HC Mike Vrabel has expressed that he wants to implement college/spread concepts to the offense, and new OC Matt LaFleur wants to be more aggressive.  If the Mariota owner in your league is down on the Oregon product, start-up trade conversations.

Amari Cooper, -17 spots – I’m sensing an overreaction theme here.  In 2015, Cooper was one of the most highly-regarded wide receiver prospect to enter the league in years.  He produced two straight years of 72+ catches and more than 1,000 yards.  Then he battled injury along with a regressive offense (sound familiar again?).  Fast forward a year, and Cooper drops from top-6 startup pick to nearly outside the second round (23.67 ADP).  Sure, there is cause for pause with Old Man Gruden at the helm, but Amari is still Amari.  I’m buying.

Sammy Watkins, -27 spots – Did you really think you were going to get through one of my articles without a Sammy reference?  HA!  I’m going to try to present this without my bias shining through.  Here are the facts.  Watkins entered the NFL checking all the boxes and was the first WR taken in the 2014 draft.  His August 2016 ADP was at the end of the first (11.83) and despite only registering 28 catches and 430 yards that season, fell only to 15.17 last year.  Fast forward to July 2018, with Watkins in a better situation, and he falls to 42.67.  IDontGetIt.Gif.  Many Watkins owners are frustrated, so it’s worth floating offers their way.

Jordan Howard, -20 spots – I’ve never been a JoHo truther, but this seems simple to me.  Howard was producing despite being the only show in town the past two years.  Now there are receiving weapons to make defenses respect the passing game along with a modern offensive philosophy, and he drops?  I get it, we think Tarik Cohen will come in and take away the backfield targets, which limits Howard’s ceiling.  JoHo has never eclipsed 29 catches in a season and has still finished as an RB1 in both of his years in the league.  Despite what you think of Cohen taking touches away, Howard is still going to be the workhorse early-down back.  If you can get Howard as your RB2 or RB3, you’ll be sitting pretty.

Jamison Crowder, -29 spots – Post-hype sleeper.  Going into last year, Crowder was being hyped up as a massive PPR value and breakout candidate.  Having dealt with injury and an overall disappointing offense, he’s fallen from an ADP of 48.67 to 77.5.  Enter Alex Smith, who’s been singing Crowder’s praises this offseason, and with Crowder back to full health, we should be looking at a bounce-back season for the Duke alum.

Honorable mentions for contending teams: AJ Green (-10 spots), Julio Jones (-8 spots), Lamar Miller (-33 spots).

 

That’ll do it!  An exercise I’d suggest all dynasty owners do is look through current ADP.  Find the guys that you’re higher or lower on versus consensus and profit.  Dynasty is a game of buying low and selling high.  Do this often enough, and hit on the right players, and you should be contending for the title on a yearly basis.  Let me know who you are buying and selling this year in the comments or hit me up on Twitter!

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