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Buy Low Sell High: Week 12

For many of you, this edition of Buy Low Sell High hits your screen the week of your league trade deadline. The moves that you make this week are going to ultimately make or break your championship run. I hope to identify the players you need to finish the 2017 season strong. Let’s go!

Week 12 Buy Low, Sell High

Buy Low, Sell High

Quarterbacks

BUY

Derek Carr

Carr was a popular pre-season pick to be a top signal caller but has failed to meet those expectations. The once feared Denver defense has allowed at least 3 passing touchdowns in each of the last 3 games. This trend is concurrent with the Broncos benching Trevor Siemian in favor of Brock Osweiler. The weaknesses of Oakland’s pass defense will be masked by Denver’s inability to sustain drives. Carr’s playoff schedule features a weak Giants pass defense and potential shootouts with Dallas and Philadelphia. Carr makes a fantastic, low-cost QB going forward.

SELL

Andy Dalton

 

Dalton has a great matchup this weekend. I would use that as trade bait or use him and move him. He faces 3 top-10 pass defenses in a row and plays 2 of them outdoors in Cincinnati. This time of the year can be windy and cold there which adds up to mistakes in the passing game. Dalton has truly become a matchup-dependent QB and should not be trusted during your playoff run.

Running Backs

BUY

Alfred Morris

Morris gained 91 yards on only 17 totes vs. the top-ranked run defense of the Eagles on Sunday night. He has managed to post 5.1 yards per carry even without All-Pro left tackle, Tyron Smith over the past two games. Cowboys owner, Jerry Jones expects Smith to return this Thursday vs. the Chargers. As the Cowboys face 4 consecutive games against teams with losing records, look for the offense to be more balanced with Morris establishing himself as the lead back sans Ezekiel Elliott.

Dion Lewis

Lewis is averaging 14 touches per game over the last 6 weeks and has to be licking his chops for the matchups ahead. The Patriots face the Bills twice during the fantasy playoffs and they have only forced 1 punt in the past two games. They went 22 defensive possessions without getting a stop dating back to week 9. The Raiders are allowing the 5th-most fantasy points to running backs and Lewis brings additional upside on special teams.

SELL

Jay Ajayi

I was of the belief that Ajayi entered a better situation when he was traded to Philly. Though his upside is higher there, it is clear that he is part of a committee with the more durable LeGarrette Blount, and the promising rookie, Corey Clement. Clement has gained 50 yards and at least 1 TD in each of the past two games and the snap count revealed Ajayi to have played the fewest snaps of the 3. He ripped off a 79-yard run and should’ve scored, but clearly, the Eagles do not plan to settle on one back to lead the charge.

Ameer Abdullah

I think most of us would view Abdullah as a disappointment. He is currently RB25 in PPR and just doesn’t see the workload to be a high-upside play. He is averaging just 14 touches over his last 5 games while deferring passing-down duties to Riddick. Look to move him to someone looking for consistency as he has put up at least 10 points in 5 of 10 games. He faces 4 top-10 rush defenses to finish out the fantasy season so you won’t be sorry for dealing him.

Wide Receivers

BUY

New England WRs

 

Tom Brady continues to be the league standard for efficiency from the QB position. He has only turned the ball over 4 times this season. That adds up to plenty of opportunities for the skill players around him to rack up the points. Add this to the fact that the Patriots face the Bills twice and that Buffalo has a mere 14 sacks on the season, and you get the best QB in football with all day to throw. If you could land Cooks, Hogan, or Amendola, you may be sitting pretty. Hogan would obviously be the cheapest option, as he is expected back this week. I’m all in the Patriots.

Josh Doctson

This 2016 first-round pick has become the favorite target of Kirk Cousins. His opportunities should mount in the coming weeks as Terrelle Pryor Sr. is slated for surgery and pass-catching running back, Chris Thompson is done for the season. As of now, Jordan Reed has also been ruled out for Thursday’s game against the Giants.  Doctson has good size, at 6’4″ and will undoubtedly be the top red-zone option for Washington. He has found his rhythm of late with 171 yards receiving over the last 3 weeks. With the expected uptick in targets from an accurate QB, I expect Dotson to help any team in need of WR help.

SELL

Demaryius Thomas

It seems that Brock Osweiler’s return did benefit one person, and that was Thomas. He has found the end-zone in each of the past 3 weeks after failing to do so at all prior to that. Now the Broncos are making another move, giving the keys to 2nd year QB, Paxton Lynch. Thomas has to build a rapport with a new QB and is now a risky play. He faces two tough secondaries during the playoff run in the Jets and Redskins. Thomas should still see targets, but I believe his floor is very low with the inconsistency at QB.

Davante Adams

This one should seem reasonable to most. Adams has been the lone bright spot in the Packers’ passing game. He has amassed 25 catches since Rodgers went down but does suffer from poor quarterback play going forward. He has to face the Minnesota secondary during the championship round of the playoffs and that could be disastrous. I would look to swap him out now after he has put together back-to-back 20 point outings. His quarterback situation is just too shaky.

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