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Late-Round Value: Randall Cobb

Randall Cobb

Let’s play a quick game.  Do you know which QB has thrown the most TD passes over the last 3 seasons?  The answer, with 109 TD tosses, is Aaron Rodgers.  Over those same three years, do you know which Green Bay pass catcher leads the team in red-zone targets?  No, not Jordy Nelson.  The answer is Randall Cobb.  This is just one of the many reasons Randall Cobb is a late-round value in 2017.

Past Production

Since his rookie season, Randall Cobb’s per game numbers have been solid, to say the least.  In that stretch, Cobb averaged 8 targets, 5.25 receptions and just over 60 yards to go along with 34 scores.  This comes out to 15.25 fantasy points per game in PPR formats. Actually, if Cobb had managed this pace for 16 games in 2016, he would have finished as the WR #11.  His hypothetical 244 point pace is amazing, especially for a slot WR.  Injuries have been a bit of a problem for Cobb, missing 15 games in the last 5 seasons, but when healthy, Cobb is a difference-maker.  Here are Cobb’s finishes at the WR position when he has played a full season (at least 15 games, since his rookie campaign); 25th, 8th, 16th.  By all accounts, Cobb is healthy.  So I would expect Cobb to finish in this WR2 range again in 2017.

Situation

The fantasy community is fading Randall Cobb for the coming season, and at a glance, this may seem like the appropriate reaction as Cobb is coming off of two subpar seasons.  Last season, Cobb struggled with the aforementioned injury bug and in 2015, in the absence of Jordy Nelson, Cobb drew WR1 treatment from opposing defenses, something that kept a lid on Cobb’s production.  Even in a disappointing 2015, Cobb finished as the WR #25.  I think a more accurate model to predict Cobb’s current situation is the 2014 season.  Both Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson were healthy and the Packers should have some semblance of a running game in 2017, as they did in 2014.  In that season, Cobb amassed 91 receptions for 1,287 yards and 12 TDs.  Numbers that are easily repeatable in a high-powered passing attack.  Especially one that has made the lesser talents of James Jones and Davante Adams into double-digit scoring WRs.  It doesn’t hurt that Mike McCarthy said that he stays up at night thinking that he needs to get Randall Cobb more touches.

Price

Finally, for the best part: Cobb’s price.  His current ADP (according to Fantasy Football Calculator) is 95th overall, or the 8th pick in the 8th round.  This puts Cobb as the 39th WR off the board, meaning that in most leagues, Cobb isn’t even being drafted to be a starting WR.  Sign me up for a WR on my bench who has the potential to finish in the top 10. At the back of the 8th round, Randall Cobb has a chance to win championships for his owners as a late-round value.

California native, proud dad, and graduate from the University of California, San Diego as well as Cal Northern School of Law. A political scientist by day, but by night I’m a fantasy football hot takes machine. I’m also a fan of the football franchise formerly known as the San Diego Super Chargers.

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