We are back with Week 7 overvalued fantasy players! I took a short hiatus from my weekly articles to focus on my recent half-marathon. Missed me, didn’t you? Well, don’t worry, I’m here to reveal my picks. To help you apply my advice more concretely, I’m including some players I would choose to bench instead of my guys. Let’s do this.
Golden Tate, WR Lions
Hey, I’m not going to sit here and not pat those very patient Tate owners on the back after his monster week 6. Tate exploded for 165 yards and a touchdown on 8 catches and ended as the #4 fantasy WR for the week. If he wasn’t already dropped or riding the pine pony, congratulations. Now, FantasyPros.com ranks him as the #29 WR for week 7 which seems optimistic at best and premature in my book. I understand he finally looked like “himself”, but this is a guy who ranked #92 overall fantasy WR over the first 5 weeks of the season and hadn’t topped 41 yards before week 6.
Tate falls behind Marvin Jones regarding overall target share and ranks #4 on the team for red zone targets (netting only 3 on the season so far). This week, the Lions face Washington who allow the 10th fewest fantasy points to WRs. Josh Norman is slotted to cover Tate (according to ProFootballFocus.com) if they use him on the outside. This said, it depends on how Detroit uses him and if they put him in the slot (which is more likely to happen if Riddick is out), then Tate would have increased opportunity and clearly does well (week 6). Washington has not given up a TD through the air the past 2 weeks and only 5 on the year total (2 of those coming in week 1 to Antonio Brown). He may do better than weeks past, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance in week 7.
Players who I would play over him: Mike Wallace, Michael Thomas, DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders
John Brown, WR Cardinals
I’ll admit that I’ve been holding on to John Brown in a couple leagues myself, but I’m ready to cut my losses. Brown’s best game came in week 4 against the Rams where he put up 144 yards on 10 catches. Other than that, he’s gained 157 yards total and had three games with just one reception. He has yet to catch a touchdown and received a measly 3 targets in the red zone over the past 6 weeks. Add in that Palmer hasn’t looked like himself at all, and you get a recipe for the epitome of Boom or Bust player and maybe worse…a cuttable one.
This week, Brown is ranked #36 fantasy WR and even this is an overestimation. Food for thought…Brown’s weekly WR fantasy rankings in order: 86, 97, 34, 13, 69, 52. The Cardinals face a stout Seattle defense allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to WRs. Last week represented their worst performance (Julio), but before week 6, the defense gave up just one touchdown through the air and didn’t allow any receiver 100+ yards. I know Brown always has that big play ability due to his speed, but news out of Arizona that Brown may have tweaked his hamstring is the nail in the coffin for me.
Players I would play over him: Ty Montgomery, Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Willie Snead, Jordan Matthews
Russell Wilson, QB Seahawks
Many may not like this call because we all can agree on his talent. The problem is that he still does not seem to be 100% and the skills that make him great (mobility, running the ball, ability to be efficient while scrambling) have been hampered by his nagging knee and ankle injuries. Defenses don’t have to stay honest since he hasn’t been as big of a threat out of the backfield as normal and his performance (fantasy and otherwise) suffered.Wilson finished #21, 18, 15, 4, and 13 fantasy QB so far this season.
This week, Wilson faces a tough Arizona defense who is trying to dig their team out of the hole Carson Palmer created. The Cardinals defense held 3/6 QBs to under 200 passing yards and gave up only 6 TDs to QBs (passing and rushing) this season. When healthy, Wilson will definitely out-perform his week 7 ranking of #14, but not now. You’re most likely rolling with him if you don’t have better options, but his upside is limited this week.
Players I would play over him: Brian Hoyer, Eli Manning, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, and possibly Alex Smith (got to love the Saints match-up)
Jordan Howard, RB Bears
Howard stepped into the starting role in Chicago and excelled, rushing for 100 yards or a touchdown in each of his three starts. He also added 8 receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown the past three weeks. He started to slow in week 6 (15 carries for 34 yards, TD) after the return of Ka’Deem Carey who received 9 carries and ran for 50 yards. Howard saw his snap count drop from 93% to 68% and his YPC plummeted to 2.3. Currently ranked as the #13 RB for week 7, he falls into my overvalued fantasy players column.
Howard faces a very tough Green Bay run defense that many now underestimate because of Ezekiel Elliott’s monster game against them in week 6. Prior to this game, GB allowed just 40 yards or less on the ground and has only allowed one rushing TD this whole season (also no receiving TDs to a running back this season). I would temper my expectations for Howard in week 7 and predict he falls outside the top 20 fantasy RBs this week.
Players I would play over him: LeGarrette Blount, Terrance West, Matt Jones, Gio Bernard, Jamaal Charles