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The Rogue Reports: 3 Low Risk Investments with Immense Potential – QB Edition

Carson Wentz

It’s never too early to start researching potential plays for the 2017 season. Bucking the status quo, or going rogue, by finding that needle in a haystack can bring the championship back to where it belongs – your trophy case.  Using the Rotoviz Best Ball ADP App, The Rogue Reports will help you identify some mid-round value plays that could save a sinking ship or put the stamp on another dominating season. This article highlights Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, and Andy Dalton as some targets in your fantasy drafts.

Note: There could be slight variance between true Redraft ADP and Best Ball ADP because there is no current data on Redraft in 2017.

Matthew Stafford – ADP 115.78, Position Rank QB14

Stafford

Former no. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford comes in as one of my favorite mid-round gems entering 2017. Having not missed a game since 2010, Stafford has continually offered a QB1 return on his investments:

Season ADP Position Finish
2011 QB11 QB5
2012 QB4 QB8
2013 QB7 QB6
2014 QB4 QB14
2015 QB12 QB9
2016 QB15 QB7

 

In 5 of his past 6 seasons, Stafford has finished as a top 9 quarterback 5 times. In fact, since 2011 only 6 quarterbacks have had at least 5 QB1 finishes: Brees (6), Stafford, Rodgers, Ryan, Rivers, and Wilson (5).

The one outlier in Stafford’s statistics was the 2014 season, which was ironically the Lions’ best season in Stafford’s tenure when they went 11-5 that year. The outlook for Detroit in 2017 is not looking to be very stellar. ESPN’s Mike Clay has Detroit projected at 7.4 wins, which would have them as the 10th worst team in the NFL, 3rd in the NFC North.

With the Lions projected to be down a lot this season, they will be relying heavily on the arm of Matthew Stafford. In 2016, Detroit ran the ball the fewest of any team in the red zone, only rushing the ball 29.37% of the time. I detailed Eric Ebron as one of the #RougeReports TE favorites and with the pairing of Stafford, this duo should be a league winner in 2017.

 

Carson Wentz – ADP 135.97, Position Rank QB19

Wentz

Carson Wentz finished 2016 leading the Eagles to a respectable 7-9 record, while thoroughly outplaying his fellow draftee Jared Goff. Wentz finished as the 2016 QB24 with 253.80 fantasy points, nearly 52 fantasy points behind the QB12, Marcus Mariota. So what makes Carson Wentz so appealing?

The first thing that I love about Wentz is the coaches he is surrounded with. From Head Coach Doug Pederson, to Offensive Coordinator Frank Reich, to Quarterbacks Coach John DeFilippo, Wentz is surrounded by people who not only can coach quarterbacks but also played the position. Pederson spent 12 years as a backup in the NFL as recently as 2004. Frank Reich spent 13 seasons as a pro QB and even replaced an injured Jim Kelly in Super Bowl XXVII. While John DeFilippo never reached the NFL, he did play college ball at James Madison University and has been a Quarterbacks coach since 2000.

The second item that can lead to Wentz’ success is his new offensive weapons. Philadelphia signed bona fide no. 1 receiver Alshon Jeffrey and seasoned veteran Torrey Smith in free agency. Add Jordan Matthews who was Philly’s leading receiver the past 2 seasons and emerging star TE (and #RogueReports favorite) Zach Ertz, Wentz will have many potent options to get the ball to.

The third and final thing I look forward to impacting Wentz’ season is his offensive line. Pro Football Focus has the Eagles offensive line ranked #1 heading into 2017. Wentz was also the best QB with a clean pocket in 2016, throwing for 3162 yards. This accounted for Nearly 83% of his total passing yards. Could this be the season that Carson Wentz will break out? All of the formulas in the equation seem to suggest so, and he is going virtually undrafted in Redraft leagues.

 

Andy Dalton – ADP 125.44, Position Rank QB16

Dalton

If you have followed FF Twitter since the draft, one thing has become pretty apparent. Either you love Andy Dalton for 2017, or you hate him. Here at the #RogueReports, he is a favorite for this season.

Dalton gets a lot of flak for his performances when the lights are the brightest, and deservingly so. But one thing that gets lost in the shuffle is his consistent fantasy performances.  Even in Cincinnati’s 6-9-1 2016 campaign, Dalton finished as the overall QB11. In 2015, Dalton was even having an MVP-caliber campaign before getting hurt in week 14. Dalton’s overall fantasy finishes since 2011:

  • 2011 – QB16
  • 2012 – QB12
  • 2013 – QB4
  • 2014 – QB18
  • 2015 – QB19*
  • 2016 – QB11

*Dalton missed 3 games in 2015 due to injury. Dalton was averaging 21.6 fppg, which landed him 8th overall.

Cincinnati retooled its offense in the offseason adding burner WR John Ross and RB Joe Mixon in the draft. Mixon and Ross are expected to be in the starting lineup week 1. With them are with stud WR AJ Green, last year’s second-round pick WR Tyler Boyd, and pro bowl tight end Tyler Eifert.

With so many weapons and the easiest projected strength of schedule in the league, it’s hard to not imagine Dalton regaining that 2015 form and putting up some serious fantasy points.

 

Did you like this article? Check out my other rogue reports on running backs and wide receivers!

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