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By: Richard Jenkins


It’s never too early to start researching potential plays for the 2017 season. Bucking the status quo, or going rogue, by finding that needle in a haystack can bring the championship back to where it belongs – your trophy case.  Using the Rotoviz Best Ball ADP App, The Rogue Reports will help you identify some mid-round value plays that could save a sinking ship or put the stamp on another dominating season.

Note: There could be slight variance between true Redraft ADP and Best Ball ADP because there is no current data on Redraft in 2017.

 

Rishard Matthews – ADP 96.6, Position Rank WR44

Following the selection of small school phenom Corey Davis, Rishard Matthews’ ADP has taken a steep decline. Matthews’ ADP has fallen 19 spots overall and he fell in the wide receiver position rank by 7. One month prior to the draft Rishard Matthews’ ADP was 77.04-WR37.

Rishard Matthews ADP

Corey Davis currently has an ADP of 59.20-WR31, gaining 19 spots overall and 8 positional spots since being selected 5th overall by the Titans. While many expect Davis to put up big numbers in his inaugural season, history shows us that being a first round wide receiver isn’t a guaranteed home-run season.

From 2007-2016, 38 wide receivers were selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Of the 32 that played in at least 10 games in their rookie season, the average stat line was 47/656/4. If Davis is able to accumulate the average, he would finish with 136 fantasy points and would have finished as WR58 in 2016. The best rookie season in that time period was 2014 Odell Beckham Jr. who finished with a stat line of 91/1305/12.

Enter Rishard Matthews who is coming off his best season as a pro. Matthews had a career-best 65 catches, 945 yards, 9 touchdowns while accumulating 213.5 fantasy points. He finished as the overall WR19 while leading the team with 96.5% of the snap share the 2nd half of the season. Matthews also had 12 red zone receptions, ranking No.7 in the league. Matthews is currently listed No.1 on a depth chart that has mostly unproven talent:

In a dynasty format the clear long term option is Corey Davis, but if you need a one season rental then Rishard Matthews is your guy. Matthews should lead the Titans wide receivers in all categories in 2017 as Davis grows accustomed to the NFL. Also being tied to Marcus Mariota is a bonus for Matthews. Mariota is the second most efficient NFL quarterback in the red zone with an 116.3 passer rating, 30 touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and a completion percentage of 65.4. Matthews is in line to have another WR2 finish, well above his WR44 rank.

 

Jeremy Maclin – ADP 115.37, Position Rank WR53

When I first saw Jeremy Maclin’s average draft position, I found myself very surprised. I took to twitter to see if his ADP could have been a mistake:


Jeremy Maclin’s ADP took a severe tumble this year after the emergence of Swiss army knife Tyreek Hill and the injury bug in 2016. Maclin missed 5 games and most of the week 9 matchup against Jacksonville with a groin injury in the first quarter. In the 3 previous seasons prior to 2016, Maclin has finished:

  • 2015- WR15
  • 2014- WR9
  • 2012- WR22

*Missed entire 2013 season due to injury

That’s twice Maclin finished as a WR2 and once as a WR1. In fact, Maclin finished 2nd to Tyreek Hill in WR targets only by a total of 83 to 76, despite playing in 5 fewer games. Even when Hill saw an uptick in usage beginning in week 9, Maclin still saw a higher snap share, 87% to Hill’s 59% (Tyreek Hill’s ADP and Position Rank is 54.21 and WR28, respectively). In his two years in KC, Maclin has been by far the favorite WR of quarterback Alex Smith:

Alex Smith

The WR53 ranking Maclin currently has is criminally low for a receiver who has such a recent and consistent history of profiling as a WR2. I once again expect Jeremy Maclin to lead the Chiefs WR’s in targets and catches while regaining that 2015 form.

 

Mike Wallace – ADP 105.33, Position Rank WR47

Outside of his miserable year in Minnesota, Mike Wallace has had a very consistent career. Having only missed 1 game in his 8 seasons, Wallace has an average of just over 195 fantasy points per season since 2009. From 2009-2016, Wallace is third in overall fantasy points for wide receivers with 1560.1, only behind Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas.

Mike Wallace

*Photo via Playerprofiler.com

 

In 2016, the Ravens ran 712 total pass plays, ranking them No. 1 overall in the league. With Steve Smith retiring and unproven 3rd-year receiver Breshad Perriman assuming the 2nd WR starting role, Wallace’s opportunity share is trending up.  The Ravens did little to address their skill positions in the offseason, only signing veteran RB Danny Woodhead leaving the 102 targets vacated by Smith up for grabs.

Since 2013, the Ravens WR1’s have finished:

  • 2016- Mike Wallace WR24
  • 2015- Kamar Aiken WR27
  • 2014- Steve Smith WR18
  • 2013- Torrey Smith WR23

Since leaving Pittsburg in 2012, he has shown that he is extremely efficient in the short middle of the field. Wallace is much more of a possession receiver debunking the theory that he is just a “home run” hitter:

Once again Mike Wallace is being valued way too low despite his production history and opportunity share. Wallace is currently only being drafted 2 spots higher than Breshad Perriman. If Wallace produces another one of his classic WR2 seasons, he would be a huge return on a low-risk investment.

 

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  1. Pingback: The Rogue Reports: 3 Low Risk Investments with Immense Potential – QB Edition | The Fantasy Authority

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