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Week 13 Starts/Sits

Week 12 was fruitful for and you if you followed my advice. I was able to hit on 76% of my starts and sits last week! Hopefully, last week helped you clinch a playoff birth and/or bye week. If not, you still have one more week, and that is why I am here.

We all know the procedure by now. Here are your starts and sits for the final regular season game, the final chance to get into the playoffs.

 

Quarterback

Start

Dak Prescott vs. New Orleans Saints

The days of Dak being a “bad quarterback” may be behind him. In five of the Dallas Cowboys last six games, Dak has over 20 fantasy points. Over the last five weeks, he is the QB12. Over the last three he is QB9. It is no coincidence that this surge coincides with the trade for wide receiver Amari Cooper. Dak is back, and that is that, Jack.

Dak faces a Saints defense who has struggled to stop the pass. While its true that the Saints were able to shutdown the Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles, they still rank 21st in DVOA against the pass. Last week the Saints gave up 28.5 fantasy points to Matt Ryan and have allowed the third-most fantasy points on the season. The Saints have also been very good against the run. While you should not be sitting Ezekial Elliot, keep in mind that the Cowboys may have to throw more. Especially to try to keep up with the Saints high-powered offense.

Dak has been a lot better the second half of the season and has a true WR1 to play with in Cooper. He is likely going to be throwing a lot in week 13, so start him.

Russell Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers

Wilson has been a disappointment relative to his ADP. This largely has to do with the Seattle Seahawks emphasis on the run this season. It also has to do with how outstanding the quarterback play has been in 2018. Wilson currently ranks as the QB15 despite throwing for over 2,500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. He also has 231 yards on the ground. These numbers would equate to top-10, if not top-five any other year. Wilson has produced seven straight games of over 20 fantasy points. He has thrown for two or more touchdowns in every one of those games. He also has not thrown an interception in his last three.

The 49ers rank 24th in DVOA against the pass. Despite only allowing the 16th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season, they still have not been good. In three of their last four games and eight of their 11 games on the season, the 49ers have allowed over 21 fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Russ has been consistently good as of late. That streak should not end against the 49ers in week 13. Start him.

Jameis Winston vs. Carolina Panthers

Up next on “As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ World Turns”… The Bucs quarterback drama has been a top story this season. It is now Winston’s second time as the starting quarterback. Let’s see if he can hold on. Winston has 19.6 or more fantasy points in every game he has played except the first one when he took over at halftime. While he may not be a great quarterback in real life, he has been a fantastic fantasy quarterback.

Winston will face a Panthers secondary that has been struggling in week 13. The Panthers currently rank 27th in DVOA against the pass. On the season, the Panthers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. In three of the last four games, they have allowed over 25 fantasy points.

This is a juicy matchup for a high-flying Buccaneers offense and Winston should be started.

Sit

Eli Manning vs. Chicago Bears

We might be at the point where Eli is a no-brainer sit. Despite an awesome matchup in week 12, Eli (or the coaches) threw up a dud. The Philadelphia Eagles secondary has been decimated by injuries and Eli (and coaches) were able to only produce 18.9 fantasy points. In fact, Eli has only been able to eclipse the 20 fantasy point mark four times in 11 games this season. All despite the myriad of talent surrounding him.

Eli’s road does not get any easier in week 13. The Chicago Bears defense has been great this season. They rank second in DVOA against the pass and first against the run. Against quarterbacks, the Bears have only allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points over the last five weeks. The Bears have allowed the second-fewest points on the season as well. One of the Giants biggest weaknesses is their offensive line, allowing the second-most sacks on the season. Meanwhile, the Bears have accrued the sixth-most sacks on the season.

This is an awful matchup for Eli and the Giants. The Bears are going to come after him hard. Sit him in week 13.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Buffalo Bills

The Miami Dolphins quarterback situation is bad. They have gone from Ryan Tannehill to Brock Osweiler back to Ryan Tannehill this season. Tannehill ranks as the QB31 in fantasy points per game. Osweiler ranks as the QB37. In his healthy games, Tannehill averages just over 20 fantasy points per game, which would be for QB20. The Dolphins score the eighth-fewest points per game. They just do not have a high powered offense.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins face a high-powered defense in the Bills in week 13. The Bills rank first in DVOA against the pass. They have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season as well. The Bills have allowed only four quarterbacks to eclipse the 20 fantasy point mark this season in out of their 11 games.

Bad offense, good defense, pretty easy decision.

Tom Brady vs. Minnesota Vikings

This is more about the Vikings defense than it is about Brady. Brady has had his ups and downs this season with four games below 20 fantasy points and five games above 25 fantasy points. He finally has a healthy group of pass-catchers and has a good running game. Brady is having a fine season, he just has had some tough matchups.

Speaking of tough matchups, the Minnesota Vikings will be tough on Brady in week 13. The Vikings rank eighth in DVOA against the pass. They have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and the second-fewest over the last five weeks. this includes under 20 fantasy points given up to Aaron Rodgers, Mitchell Trubisky, Matthew Stafford, and Drew Brees over their last four games.

Brady has been shut down several times this season. Week 13 will be another.

Running Back

Start

Jalen Richard vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Richard has quietly had a great season. In the dumpster fire that is the Oakland Raiders, Richard has been the one bright spot. In the Raiders 11 games, Richard has posted seven double-digit fantasy days. He will likely continue to do so as the Raiders are bad and will be playing from behind virtually the entire time.

The Chiefs are poor against pass-catching running backs. First, they rank last in DVOA against the run. Second, they rank 27th in DVOA against running backs in coverage. The Chiefs have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs on the season. This includes the third-most receptions and most receiving yards. The Chiefs offense, on the other hand, is among the best in the league. The Raiders will likely have to throw to try to catch up.

Richard is the Raiders pass catching back. The Raiders will likely fall behind early and need to throw. Start Richard in week 13.

Phillip Lindsay @ Cincinnati Bengals

I normally try not to repeat players on these lists in back to back weeks. However, this matchup needs to be exploited. Lindsay has been the surprise of the season. The rookie undrafted free agent is second among rookies in rushing yards and seventh overall. He currently ranks as the RB11 on the season. Lindsay has posted double-digit fantasy points in every game except week 3 when he was ejected. In Week 12, Lindsay posted the first 100-yard rushing game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2018. He has likely turned into a start every week.

Lindsay faces a Bengals defense that has struggled all season. The Bengals rank 26th in DVOA against the pass and 28th against the run. On the season, the Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs. Over the last five weeks, they have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs.

With the Broncos leaning more on the running game and going up against a bad defense, Lindsay is a must-start in week 13.

LeSean McCoy @ Miami Dolphins

I have not had the chance to put McCoy on the starts list much this season. With injuries and overall poor offensive play by the Bills, McCoy has not had a great season. McCoy has five double-digit fantasy games and four single-digit games. Since week 5, McCoy has double-digit carries in all game she has played that he was healthy.

McCoy gets a good matchup in week 13 in the Dolphins. On the season, the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. They have allowed double-digit fantasy points to a running back in every game this season except one.

With a string of double-digit carries and going against a bad defense, McCoy is a good streaming start in week 13.

Sit

Indianapolis Colts Running Backs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Marlon Mack has been great for the Indianapolis Colts when healthy. The rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins have had their moments as well. Mack ranks as RB14 in fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, Mack is in the concussion protocol. Hines has filled in admirably within Mack’s absence with four double-digit fantasy games on the season.

Unfortunately, n0ne of the Colts running backs will fair well in week 13. The Jaguars rank ninth in DVOA against the run. In terms of fantasy, the Jaguars have allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season. They also rank 5th in DVOA against running backs in coverage, which is a bad thing for Hines.

The Jaguars have been phenomenal against the run. Probably best to sit the Colts running backs in week 13.

Tevin Coleman vs. Baltimore Ravens

Coleman has been relatively disappointing this season. Given a chance to start almost every game with Devonta Freeman fighting injures, Coleman is only the RB22 on the season.  He was able to do that previous two seasons in a part-time role. Coleman has still been able to produce double-digit fantasy games in nine of the Falcons 11 games this season.

However, Coleman has a difficult matchup in week 13 against the Ravens. The Ravens rank sixth in DVOA against the run. They also rank sixth in DVOA against running backs in coverage. They have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season. The Ravens have also allowed the sixth-fewest receptions and the fewest receiving yards to running backs.

The Ravens are good against running backs on the ground and through the air. This is a bad matchup for Coleman. Sit him.

Austin Ekeler @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This one goes against the grain. Los Angeles Chargers running back Melvin Gordon going down with an MCL sprain, many believe Ekeler is in for a big day. However, we saw an Ekeler game without Gordon in week 7 and it was disappointing. When Gordon went down with his injury in week 12, rookie Justin Jackson saw more carries than Ekeler. Ekeler excels in a change-of-pace role, not a bell cow role.

Ekeler and the Chargers face the Steelers in week 13. The Steelers rank 12 in DVOA against the run. They rank seventh in DVOA against running backs in coverage. The Steelers defense has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs. This includes the second-fewest receptions and receiving yards. The Steelers have only given up one 100-yard game. last week against the Broncos.

Ekeler will probably see an uptick in touches but will have to split with Justin Jackson. Facing a good run defense in the Steelers, Ekeler is a sit for me in week 13.

Wide Receiver

Start

Kenny Golladay vs. Los Angeles Rams

This might be cheating a bit. Kenny Golladay is having a breakout in his second season. Golladay ranks as the WR17. Except for a three-game lull in the middle of the season, Golladay has double-digit fantasy points in every game. Now with Golden ate being traded to the Philadelphia Eagles and Marvin Jones injuring his knee, Golladay has seen 35 targets in the last three games. With Jones headed to IR, Golladay should continue to see a large number of targets.

The Rams, while good against the pass a whole with the seventh-ranked DVOA against the pass, have not been good in coverage. They rank 25th in DVOA against WR1s, 20th against WR2s, and 26th against other wide receivers. On the season, the Rams have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Over the last five weeks, they have allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Rams also have a high-powered offense, so the Lions will likely have to throw to keep up.

Golladay is in for some huge volume against a bad team in coverage. You need to start him in week 13.

Adam Humphries vs. Carolina Panthers

The bane of everyone’es existence Adam Humphries. Despite being a spoiler for those rostering Chris Godwin, Humphries has actually had a good season. He currently ranks as the WR30. In five of the Bucs last seven games, Humphries has produced double-digit fantasy points. This likely has to do with Jameis Winston at quarterback. With Winston at quarterback, Humphries has seen over one more target per game, received almost 15 more yards per game, and produced two more fantasy points per game.

The Panthers secondary has been bad this season. They rank 27th in DVOA against the pass. Against WR2s and other wide receivers, they rank 27th and 20th in DVOA respectively. In terms of fantasy, the Panthers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks.

With Winston at the helm and facing a bad secondary, Humphries is a sneaky start in week 13.

DJ Moore @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Panthers rookie wide receiver is showing why he was selected in the first round. In 2018, Moore has six double-digit fantasy games. Since week 7, Moore seems to have taken over as the WR1 for the Panthers with three games of 90 or more yards. Over the last two games, Moore has caught 17 passes for 248 yards and one touchdown.

The Bucs are terrible on defense. They rank 32nd in DVOA against the pass and 27th against the run. They rank 30th, 31st, and 24th in DVOA against WR1s, WR2s, and other wide receivers respectively. On the season, the Bucs have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Moore is now the WR2 for the Panthers. He faces a bad Bucs secondary in week 13. He is a good start.

Sit

Josh Gordon vs. Minnesota Vikings

See: Brady, Tom. The Vikings defense is good against the pass, as was discussed above. Against WR1s, the Vikings rank first in DVOA. In terms of fantasy, the Vikings have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points on the season to wide receivers. Gordon has been great since joining the Patriots. He just has a bad matchup in week 13 against the Vikings.

Cleveland Browns Wide Receivers @ Houston Texans

The Browns wide receivers have been unimpressive this season. They have not had a 100-yard game since week 3. They also have had only one double-digit fantasy game in their last three. The Browns star wide receiver, Jarvis Landry, only has 102 yards over the past three games. The targets seem to be going the way of the running backs and tight ends.

The Texans defense seems to be revamped with the return of JJ Watt. They rank 14th in DVOA against the pass and second against the run. The Texans have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. They also only allow the fifth-fewest points scored.

The Browns wide receivers are not being targeted and they are going against a good defense. Do not trust them in week 13.

Mike Williams @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Williams’ season has been up and down. He has six double-digit fantasy games and five single-digit games including a zero. Not coincidentally, five of six of Williams’ double-digit days coincide with touchdowns. Williams is touchdown dependent, which you cannot count on.

After starting off the season rough, the Steelers pass defense has been better as of late. In their last four games, the Steelers have allowed only two double-digit fantasy games and one game over 20 fantasy points.

With Williams’ reliance on touchdowns and facing an improved secondary, Williams is a sit for week 13.

Tight End

Start

Cameron Brate vs. Carolina Panthers

Talk about dependence on a quarterback. With Winston at quarterback, Brate receivers nearly two more targets and produces almost six more fantasy points per game. Brate is one of Winston’s favorite red zone targets, producing 0.3 more touchdowns per game, which is five more touchdowns per season.

Much like the Panthers struggle against wide receivers, they also struggle against tight ends. The Panthers rank 30th in DVOA against tight ends in coverage. They allow the most fantasy points to tight ends per game. They have allowed the eight double-digit fantasy games to tight ends in their 11 games.

With Winston playing quarterback and going to a defense susceptible to tight ends, start Brate in week 13.

Kyle Rudolph @ New England Patriots

Rudolph made my sits list last week. He proved me wrong. Rudolph makes the starts this week because of the matchup. The Patriots have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. In their last seven games, they have allowed the seven tight ends to reach double-digit fantasy points.

While Rudolph has been disappointing this season, he has a great matchup in week 13. Start him.

David Njoku @ Houston Texans

Another repeat from last week because of another great matchup. Njoku has shown us glimpses of being a superstar this season. He produced four straight games of double-digit fantasy points in the middle of the season. Then he had a down streak and bounced back nicely in week 12 against the Bengals. Hopefully, that is a sign of things to come for the Browns offense.

The Texans biggest weakness on defense is against tight ends. They rank 31st in DVOA against tight ends in coverage. The Texans have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends on the season. They have allowed the third-most over the last five weeks.

Njoku exploited a good matchup last week. He should be able to do it again in week 13.

Sit

Chris Herndon @ Tennessee Titans

The New York Jets rookie tight end has been relatively steady this season. Since week 6, Herndon has posted double-digit fantasy games in four of the Jets last six games. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to continue in week 13.

The Titans have been good on defense this season. They rank eighth in DVOA against tight ends. On the fantasy front, they have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. The Titans have yet to allow a touchdown and have allowed only one double-digit fantasy game to tight ends.

Herndon has been one of the Jets most reliable pass catchers, but the Titans defense is good. Sit Herndon in week 13.

Jonnu Smith vs. New York Jets

Smith is in the midst of a breakout. Over the last four games, Smith has four double-digit fantasy games, including three touchdowns. The Titans have been looking for a second pass catcher to help Corey Davis and they may have found him.

However, the Jets will likely put a stop to that. The Jets have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. They have only allowed double-digit fantasy games twice this season.

The Jets are susceptible to wide receivers, not tight ends. Avoid Smith in week 13.

Jimmy Graham vs. Arizona Cardinals

Graham’s time in Green Bay has not been what many expected. I think most expected a lot of touchdowns. Graham only has two this season. While Graham has produced several double-digit games, the last three weeks he has combined for four catches and 61 yards. On top of that, he has a broken thumb.

The Cardinals pass defense has been their biggest strength. They rank eighth in DVOA against the pass. The Cardinals have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.

The Packers offense has been lackluster this season. They face a Cardinals defense that is more susceptible to the run than the pass. Graham is a sit for week 13.

 

As always, I hope you found this article helpful. I also hope that this article will help you set your lineups to get you into the playoffs. See you in the playoffs!

 

 

Football Outsiders DVOA

FFToday Fantasy Points Allowed

Bleacher Report Over/Under

ESPN Team/Player Stats

Thank you for reading. You can follow me on Twitter @FFStompy. Enjoy more redraft articles from The Fantasy Authority here., dynasty articles here, and DFS here. Enjoy and subscribe to the four podcasts hosted by The Fantasy Authority found here. Also, follow The Fantasy Authority (@FF_Authority), the Dynasty Life Podcast (@DynastyLifePod), the Redshirts Fantasy Football Podcast (@RedshirtFFPod), and the DFS DegeNation Podcast (@DegeNationPod) on Twitter.

Raised in Colorado, I am an avid Broncos fan. I have been playing fantasy football since I started with my dad around 15 years ago. My current home, redraft league is 10 years old. I started playing dynasty a few years ago and became addicted. I have since joined double-digit leagues, become a fantasy football writer, and have appeared on several podcasts.

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