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Player Summary

Will Fuller is the WR2 in Houston, starting opposite to DeAndre Hopkins. Houston was expected to have a high-octane offense this season, but they have been performing below expectations. A big part of the issue is the underwhelming play of newly signed quarterback Brock Osweiler. With Osweiler performing below expectations, teams are able to focus on the run more, making Osweiler attempt, even more, passes this year. However, he still has the ability to put up garbage time stats, which is why Will Fuller is still having a very productive year. Through 5 games, Fuller has a stat line of 40 targets, 20 receptions, 327 yards and 2 TDs. He hasn’t received less than 6 targets a game and is a focal point on the Houston offense.

 

Consensus Ranking and Projected Stats

For week 5, Fuller is ranked as the 46th Flex PPR player overall, and the 27th wide receiver. His projections for the week:

Receiving:            4.0 catches, 63.6 yards, 0.4 TDs

Total Points:       12.7 PPR points

 

Current Week Match-up

This week, the Houston Texans host the Indianapolis Colts with the Sunday night primetime game. The total Vegas over/under is set at 46.0, a middling total on the week. After the dud last week against a very tough Minnesota defense, Fuller should have ample opportunity to rebound this week. The Colts rank 27th against the pass this year. Furthermore, they have given up seven top-36 finishes at the wide receiver position this year. With their top corner Vontae Davis done for the year, the Colts secondary is not exactly a daunting foe. I expect the Colts to focus on stopping DeAndre when possible, which leaves Fuller open underneath for Osweiler.

While he is the WR2, Fuller has been getting his targets each game. After being embarrassed last week by the Vikings, look for Houston to attack early and often in this match-up.

 

Comparable Flex Starters

I’ve analyzed some comparable flex starters, along with a brief description of why I like them more or less:

 

WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks. Projected PPR points – 8.3 points

A popular sleeper pick heading into the 2016 NFL season, Lockett has been underperforming mightily this year. Lockett has not played more than 27 snaps in the last three weeks and has been on the field for just 31.5 percent of the offensive plays over that span. Apparently, he has been playing through a torn PCL all year, which would explain his lack of usage. While he has a tasty match-up against the leaky Atlanta secondary in week 6, he will be tough to trust until he gets more snaps and targets.

Conclusion: Start Fuller over Lockett

 

WR Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals. Projected PPR points – 9.7 points

Floyd has a dream match-up against a New York Jets pass defense that ranks 31st against the pass, but it may not help Floyd’s chances at having a big game. Floyd has lost his starting job to John Brown and is losing, even more, snaps each week. His snap count percentage has dropped from 44% to 33% over the past two weeks, and he registered a zero-point game last week. Worst of all, Floyd is in his contract year, which can’t be helping his chances of getting paid this offseason. Even with Carson Palmer (concussion) possibly returning this week, Floyd cannot be trusted as a starting fantasy option.

Conclusion: Start Fuller over Floyd

 

Record to Date:

Player Projections: 1 – 4

Start/Sit Recommendations: 7 – 3

Accountant by trade, I enjoy stats and numbers far more than anyone ever should. Despite being born and raised in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, I’ve somehow become a Dallas Cowboys fan (praise Romo). While I love all fantasy sports, fantasy football is my favorite. Twitter @TFA_Andrew

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