I am sitting here, watching the tv show Psych as I write the starts/sits for week 6. The show is about a guy, Shawn Spencer, who hyper-observant thanks to his police officer father and tells the cops that he is psychic to get out of trouble. From then on, he has to maintain the lie while the police department hires he and his best friend/partner, Burton “Gus” Guster, to help them solve cases. All the while, Shawn and Gus get into all sorts of shenanigans behind the police’s backs to allow Shawn to use his keen observation and pretend he is psychic.
I know how Shawn feels. I feel that I am also hyper-observant, with my observations centering around fantasy football data, matchups, etc. However, there is a difference between Shawn and I. I actually am psychic!
In week 5, I got 57% of my starts/sits right. That makes three weeks straight of well over a 50% hit rate. I could be the next big thing. I can see it now, me, ‘Stomptradamus’, getting my own reality show like the crazy lady from Long Island Medium.
Or, even better, an audience interaction show like that piece of human trash John Edwards.
Can you just imagine that?
Me: “I am getting indecision about who to start at running back over in this area. I am also seeing a player that starts with an A and the other starts with a B. An Allen, Aristotle, Arthur, Aretha, Alex! versus a Bojangles, Bartholomew, Banana, Buck! Alex versus Buck!”
*A member of the audience stands up*
Audience Member: “That’s me! That’s me!”
Anyway, that is enough promotion of my psychic abilities. You are here for help with your fantasy lineups. So, without further ado, here are your starts and sits for week 6!
Jameis Winston @ Atlanta Falcons
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback could not have drawn a better matchup for his first start of the season. Ryan Fitzmagic and the Bucs offense was high flying the first three weeks of the season, putting up 27 or more points in all three games. That includes 48 against the New Orleans Saints in Week 1. Then, they played the Chicago Bears in Week 4, and Fitzmagic turned to Fitztragic. Winton took over in the second half and the Bucs ultimately only scored 10 points before entering their bye week. The Bucs still have an extremely talented set of pass-catchers. Coming out of the bye, the Bucs should fare a lot better against the Falcons.
The Falcons defense is ravaged by injury. Start linebacker Deion Jones was placed on IR with a foot injury. The Falcons two starting safeties, Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, suffered season-ending injuries. Their absence is readily apparent. The Falcons defense ranks 28th against the pass and 31st against the run in DVOA. They have also surrendered the second most points to opponents and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
With the Bucs defense also extremely poor, this game will likely be high scoring. The over/under for the game is 57.5. Winston will be throwing early and often. Start him in Week 6.
Andy Dalton vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Dalton has actually had a decent 2018. Through five weeks, Dalton accumulated 1,445 yards, 12 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. His lowest fantasy output was in Week 5 when he produced 17.4 points against the Miami Dolphins. Still, Dalton is only ranked overall QB15. In a season where scoring is up across the league, Dalton is, well, Dalton. He is a decidedly mediocre quarterback. However, he is a very serviceable streaming option.
Dalton faces a Steelers defense in Week 6 that is… BAD. The Steelers have given up the third-most total yards, fourth-most pass yards, and eighth-most point per game. In terms of fantasy, they have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Like most Steelers games, this is going to be high scoring. The over/under is 53. Start Dalton with confidence this week.
Baker Mayfield vs. Los Angeles Chargers
After telling you Mayfield was a sit last week, which I was correct about, he is a start this week. In fact, he is a good buy candidate as his upcoming schedule is very passing game friendly, starting with the Chargers. Mayfield actually did not look terrible last week, there just was not a ton of scoring. In his two starts this season, Mayfield has 637 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. He has also averaged 23.6 fantasy points per game.
The Chargers are injury-riddled, again. Star defensive end Joey Bosa has yet to play a snap. Rookie linebacker Kyzir White has been sidelined with a knee injury. This resulted in the Chargers being vulnerable through the air. The Chargers allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. In three of their five games, they have allowed 25 or more fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Mayfield has been electric this season and that should continue in Week 6.
Ryan Tannehill vs. Chicago Bears
Tannehill is not good. The Bears defense is very good. It is that simple. But really, Tannehill is the QB28. The Dolphins are averaging the third-fewest yards per game, including the fifth-fewest passing yards per game. They are also averaging the fifth-fewest points per game.
Meanwhile, the Bears defense has been revamped with the addition of outside linebacker Khalil Mack. The Bears rank first overall against the pass and third against the run in terms of DVOA. They have allowed the second-fewest yards and points per game.
Tannehill and the Dolphins are in for a long Week 6.
Dak Prescott vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
This does not take much explanation. The battle of arguably the worst pass offense versus arguably the best pass defense. The Jaguars allow the fewest pass yards per game. They also allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Cowboys throw for the third-fewest pass yards per game. Dak has not been good at all this season, but this is an ULTRA-avoid.
Marcus Mariota vs. Baltimore Ravens
Mariota finally looked like the quarterback a lot of people that he would be in 2018 in Week 4, leading the Titans to a win against the Eagles. Then, he put up a dud against the Buffalo Bills. Mariota is QB33 in fantasy points per game this season. The Titans offense has looked very poor, sans Week 4, scoring the fourth-fewest points per game. They also throw for the fourth-fewest yards per game.
The Ravens defense has arguably been the best defense in the league, ranking fourth in DVOA against the pass and the run. They have allowed the third-fewest yards per game, fourth-fewest passing yards per game, and the fewest points per game. Quarterbacks have scored the second-fewest fantasy points per game against the Ravens.
Another perfect storm of a bad offense versus a very good defense in Week 6. The over/under for this game 41. It will be a low scoring game and Mariota is a sit.
Dalvin Cook vs. Arizona Cardinals
This is contingent on Cook playing, of course. Cook has been hampered by a hamstring injury suffered in Week 1. This is the perfect matchup for Cook to come back to if he suits up. He practiced for the first time since week 3 this week.
The Cardinals have been beyond awful at stopping the run. The Arizona defense allowed the third-most rushing yards and most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2018. They have also been susceptible to pass-catching running backs, ranking 25th in DVOA in coverage against running backs. The Cardinals allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs as well, through five weeks.
If Cook plays, he has a stellar matchup against the Cardinals in Week 6. Start him if he suits up.
James White vs. Kansas City Chiefs
White has been phenomenal this season. We have always known he is a good pass-catcher, but he was never consistent. He seems to have put it all together in 2018. White has 110 yards on the ground, 270 yards receiving on 32 receptions, and five total touchdowns. Even with the return of Julian Edelman in Week 5, White received 14 targets. He is currently the fantasy RB7.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are terrible against pass-catching running backs. They rank 28th in DVOA against running backs in coverage. The Chiefs have also allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs and the most receiving yards to running backs.
This game is a battle of two awesome offenses. The over/under is 59, which is the highest in Week 6 and in 2018. Expect a lot of points to be scored and White to be a part of that scoring.
Jordan Howard @ Miami Dolphins
Despite the Bears scoring 48 points and being up big in the first half in Week 4 against the Bucs, Jordan Howard did not seem much work. Howard really has not been great in 2018, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry, and ranking as fantasy RB34.
However, this may be the matchup for Howard to get off the shneid. The Dolphins have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points and seventh most yards to running backs.
The Bears had an offensive explosion in Week 4. That may be a sign of things to come. If the Bears offense is able to continue to produce while the defense shuts opponents down, there could be a lot of positive game scripts for Jordan Howard. I believe that will be the case in Week 6 against the Dolphins.
Frank Gore/Kenyan Drake vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears defense is good, as I explained that above. They allowed the fewest rushing yards per game and fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. The Dolphins offense is not good. Gore has been OK, but he does not get many opportunities. Drake is electric, but head coach Adam Gase hates him. Best to avoid this offense in Week 6 and beyond.
Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis vs. Baltimore Ravens
Henry is averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Henry averaged 4.3 yards per carry the previous two seasons. Lewis is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Lewis’ career yards per carry before 2018 was 4.8. The Tennessee Titans offensive line has not been good in 2018.
The struggles will continue in Week 6 against the Ravens. The Ravens defense ranks fourth in DVOA against the run. They have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards and third-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Sit the Titans offense this week.
Adrian Peterson vs. Carolina Panthers
AP dislocated his shoulder against the New Orleans Saints in week 5. He will not miss any time, but it is hard to imagine the injury will not affect his performance. AP has had an up and down season to date. In Weeks 1 and 3, AP combined for 216 yards and three touchdowns and added two receptions for 70 yards. In Weeks 2 and 4, he combined for 26 yards rushing and five receptions for 66 yards.
The Panthers rank 11th in DVOA against the run. They have allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to running backs. The Panthers are much more susceptible to the pass, ranking 27th in DVOA against the pass.
Washington will likely have to throw to move the ball on the Panthers. Sit AP in Week 6.
Chester Rogers @ New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver TY Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle are expected to miss the Colts week 6 game against the Jets. This opens up a lot of targets for Rogers. Hilton left the Colts Week 4 game against the Texans. Rogers received 11 targets, catching eight for 85 yards in that game. He followed it up with another eight receptions on 11 targets for 66 yards against the Patriots in Week 5 with Hilton out. With Hilton out yet again, Rogers could easily see another double-digit target game.
The Jets defense ranks 21st in DVOA in coverage against WR1s and 18th against WR2s. They have given up the ninth-most receiving yards. They have also given up eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
The Colts run game has not been good this season, averaging the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. They will likely have to throw to stay in this game, meaning more opportunities for Rogers.
Doug Baldwin vs. Oakland Raiders
Baldwin’s first game back from injury was relatively successful. He received seven targets, catching five for 41 yards against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4. Last week, Baldwin received only one target despite playing in 88% of the snaps. Baldwin is still the Seahawks best receiver and will get his looks, and this may be the week he bounces back.
The Raiders defense is bad. They rank 30th in DVOA against the pass and 24th against the run. I guess that is what happens when you trade away one of the top defensive players in the league…The Raiders have given up the fifth-most yards to wide receivers and the seventh-most fantasy points. The Raiders are particularly bad against players who have taken a significant portion of their snaps from the slot. They have given up big games to Cooper Kupp, Emmanuel Sanders, Albert Wilson, Jarvis Landry, and Keenan Allen.
The Seahawks need Baldwin to win. Hopefully, Brian Schottenheimer realizes that.
Tyler Boyd vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
After having a dominant three-game stretch, Boyd cooled off a bit in Week 5 against the Dolphins. The Bengals offense had a rough go of it as a whole against the Dolphins. Boyd still received seven targets and is the no doubt WR2 for the Bengals. With Eifert out for the season, he has less competition for targets as well.
I have already gone over how poor the Steelers defense is above. They have allowed the second-most receiving yards and third-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Boyd will get targets in a high scoring Week 6.
Kenny Stills vs. Chicago Bears
After a great Week 1, Still has been relatively disappointing. The Dolphins offense has been disappointing as a whole. Going up against the Bears defense, things will not be getting any better in Week 6. This is like beating a dead horse. The Bears defense is good. The Dolphins offense is bad. Sit your Dolphins.
Corey Davis vs. Baltimore Ravens
Davis has been held back a bit by his quarterback situation this season. He showed us a glimpse of what he can do in the Titans Week 4 win against the Eagles when he had 161 yards and a game-winning touchdown. But, as I stated above, the Titans offense is bad right now.
I also stated above that the Ravens defense is good. Notice a theme? Sit your bad offenses versus good defenses. The Ravens got better with the return of their best cornerback Jimmy Smith from suspension. The Ravens defense ranks top-12 in DVOA in coverage of all opposing wide receivers.
I like Davis as a talent and a player, just not this week.
Alshon Jeffery @ New York Giants
Jeffery had a successful return from shoulder surgery in Week 4 with 105 yards and one touchdown on nine targets. Week 5 was not nearly as successful. Despite receiving eight targets, he only caught two for 39 yards. Jeffery is still the top receiver for the Eagles and it is a risk to sit him anytime, but he does not have a great matchup in Week 6.
The Giants defense has allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards and third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. They have also allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game.
This game may be a defensive dogfight. The over/under is 43.5. I would not expect a ton of offense in this one, and not by Jeffery.
Austin Hooper vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hooper saw a huge bump in targets in the Falcons week 5 game against the Steelers. He caught nine of his 12 targets for 77 yards. Hooper faces another bad defense in the Buccaneers in week 6. The Bucs have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends and the third-most yards.
As was stated above, this is a battle of two bad defenses. This will be a high scoring game and Hooper should see a decent amount of targets.
Cameron Brate @ Atlanta Falcons
Brate has not had a good season to date. He only has 10 targets on the season, though he does have a touchdown in each of the Bucs last two games. He also faces a bad Falcons defense that has actually been good against tight ends. There is reason for hope though. Brate has shown to be one of quarterback Jameis Winston’s favorite targets. Using RotoViz’s game splits app, Brate sees two more targets, catches two more passes for over 20 more yards, and ultimately produces six more PPR points with Winston than without.
With fellow tight end OJ Howard nursing a sprained MCL, Brate may once again be a top target for the Bucs. Brate is a good start in a terrible tight end landscape in week 6.
Ricky Seals-Jones @ Minnesota Vikings
Let us try this again. RSJ was a start for me last week as well. He saw the target share in the Arizona Cardinals Week 5 game against the San Francisco 49ers, tieing for the team lead in targets. He just did not catch any. Quarterback Josh Rosen only completed 10 of 25 passes in the first place. RSJ will have better days ahead.
The Vikings rank 31st in DVOA in coverage against tight ends. They have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends. They have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends.
The Cardinals will probably need to throw to keep up with the Vikings. This should give ample opportunity to RSJ to finish as a top-12 tight end in Week 6.
Baltimore Ravens Tight Ends @ Tennessee Titans
First, who is going to the lead tight end for the Ravens? Mark Andrews has 135 yards, Maxx Williams has 127 yards, Nick Boyle has 114 yards, and Hayden Hurst just returned from injury. *CLICHE ALERT* there are too many mouths to feed in the Ravens tight end corp.
They also face a Titans defense that has been very good against tight ends. The Titans rank 10th in DVOA against tight ends. They have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
This game is going to be a defensive battle. There are four tight ends fighting for targets. Best to sit all of them.
Trey Burton @ Miami Dolphins
It is hard to nail down the Chicago Bears offense and Trey Burton. Burton has been relatively disappointing to his hype in the offseason. Yet, he is still the fantasy TE11 in this terrible tight end climate. Before Week 4’s offensive explosion by the Bears, the offense looked terrible. Will the real Chicago Bears please stand up?
I think Burton will show us his potential this week against the Dolphins. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. They rank 13th in DVOA in coverage against tight ends.
The over/under for this game is 42. It will be relatively low scoring, which will reduce Burton’s opportunities in Week 6.
Jared Cook vs. Seattle Seahawks
Time to play the “guess which Raider will have a big game this week.” It is a crapshoot figuring out which Raiders pass-catcher is going to get the most targets, yards, etc. any given week. Last week it was Martavis Bryant. The week before it was Amari Cooper and Jared Cook. The week before that it was Jordy Nelson. Your guess is as good as mine.
I do not think it will be Cook. The Seahawks rank 6th in DVOA against tight ends. They have allowed the sixth-fewest yards and seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. With linebacker Bobby Wagner back and healthy, Cook will have a hard time getting open in Week 6.
Thank you again for following me and allowing me to help you. I hope this article will help you make lineup decisions and win your leagues.
And that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
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