Hello Everybody, My name is Hess and I’m here to talk some MLB DFS. This season, I started with modest goals. I wanted to learn good bankroll management and build a bankroll for the NFL season. I wanted to learn a consistent research process and work on it daily to make it better, and I wanted to win my first MLB gpp. I have accomplished all of these goals this year already, only a month or so into the season. I think it is a good practice for each of you to make your own goals for the season and we can work at them together. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @HessDFS or you can send me your emails and we can get you into our FREE slack chat where we discuss the best plays, game theory and Slate IQ every day. Thanks for reading!
Pay Up Pitchers:
Rich Hill vs NYM (10,800)– The New York Mets strike out 25.3% of the time with an 11.2% swinging strike rate against left-handed pitchers. While at the same time, Hill owns a 28.7% strikeout rate, which is third highest on the slate. Today Rich Hill will be pitching at home which is one of the top 10 best pitching parks giving him a nice little boost compared to other top options.
Matt Boyd vs BAL (10,300)– Baltimore isn’t as bad of a team as the community makes them out to be. Frequently they are one of my favorite leverage spots against chalk pitchers. Not today. Today I’m fully on board with Matt Boyd. The Orioles are the “proud” owners of a 26.4% strikeout rate against lefties and Boyd already has 5 games with 8 or more strikeouts. Camden Yards is known as a hitters park but sporting a .94 HR/9, I’m not too worried about it.
Max Fried vs WAS (8,100)– How many of you knew that Max Fried is the owner of the best pitch in the MLB in terms of xwOBA? His curveball has a .108 and gets a 74.2% groundball rate. It also sports a 45.6% K rate which is top 10 in the MLB. Fried uses this pitch 27.3 percent of the time so you can imagine what the numbers look like. Washington strikes out an average number of times in 22% but that does come with a low hard contact rate of 33.5% limiting damage. Fried has the most upside for the price point on the slate.
Trevor Richards vs SFG (8,200)– I think by now everyone knows the Giants aren’t a good team. They come into this game tonight with a .137 ISO, 24.4% K rate, and an 11.6% swinging strike percentage to right-handed pitchers. What everyone doesn’t know is Trevor Richards stopped using his 4-seam so much, 15% less to be exact. He’s replaced it with a slider that is drawing a 36 percent swing rate. While I prefer Fried, Richards is a great pivot at the same price point against a terrible Giants team.
Marco Gonzalez vs TEX (6,900)– This is one of my least favorite matchups out of the pitchers that I would recommend playing today. Texas has heavy hitters that are both righties and lefties and only strikeout 19.4% to left-handed pitchers. This is more of a low upside, “safe” play. Gonzo has a 55% ground ball rate to lefties to make up for the low 10% K rate. If he’s able to keep the ball on the ground for the power hitters, and still strikeout 5-6 righties, where he sports a better 18.6% K rate he would more than make up his price tag.
Clayton Richard vs TBR (6,200)– Richard isn’t a play I would recommend for the risk-averse. So far this season, he’s played in one game against Boston. Richard went for 4 innings, had 2 K’s, 2 walks, and 1 earned run for 8 DK points. The Rays this year have a .148 ISO, a 25.3% K rate and an 11.6% swinging strike percentage. Richard does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground with only a 21% fly ball rate and a 1.08 HR/9. Last season he had an insane 73.3% ground ball rate to lefties while striking them out 19.3% of the time. While his splits to righties is a 20% decrease in groundballs, its still over 50%. For this price, I would be happy with 10-12 DK points while fitting in all the bats I could want.