Week 1 of the NFL season has come and gone and with that, comes all of the “hot takes” and overreactions. As a DFS player, it is our job to sift through this information and figure out what is warranted and what isn’t and use this to our advantage heading into week 2.
This is a week where I think our value is at an all time high because you’re going to find guys overpriced because of what they did in week 1 or guys underpriced because of the exact same reason. Do not fall in the trap of giving up on a guy after one bad week or following the steam of a player because of one huge week. This is how you lose in DFS. We need to look at each week and each matchup as a whole new season and that is exactly what we are going to do with the players below.
Now let’s see who is going to make us some bread and get to these Money Makers!!
Tyrod Taylor @ NO ($5900)
My favorite GPP play at quarterback this week is Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod is facing a New Orleans defense that in week 1, gave up 45.3 DK points to Ryan Fitzpatrick, which included 417 passing yards. In week 1, against Pittsburgh, Taylor played poorly only completing 15 of 40 passes for 197 yards, but still ended up with 24.6 DK points. This was also a game that was played in terrible weather, which will not be the case in New Orleans. If that is the floor that we are going to get from Tyrod and now we are able to get him in a dome against a porous Saints defense, he has the ability to win us a GPP this weekend.
Ben Roethlisberger v. KC ($6900)
Ben Roethlisberger playing at home = money. Everyone knows about Roethlisberger’s home vs. road splits and everything else about his situation on Sunday lines up for him to have a big day. The fact that Big Ben was absolutely terrible week 1, could lead to his ownership being lower than it should be in this matchup, which is something we need to use to our advantage. With that, the Kansas City defense gave up 418 passing yards last week and that included a few drops by Chargers receivers that could have put that total over 500. In a game that has the highest total at 53.5, we could see Big Ben air it out 45-50 times and this should lead to some success.
Case Keenum v. Oak ($5800)
Another quarterback that I really like this week is Case Keenum vs. Oakland. Keenum had a great outing week 1 with 25 DK points and no one really seems to be talking about it. Keenum is also going against an Oakland team that is having all sorts of issues right now. The stat that surprised me the most was that Keenum threw the ball 39 times last week and averaged 65 DK points per attempt. After week 1, Oakland ranked as 27th in DVOA against the pass, so I could see Keenum again getting around 40 attempts and giving us a nice floor of 24-25 DK points.
James Conner v. KC ($6700)
In week 1 against Cleveland, James Conner ended up with a line of 31 rushes, 135 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns and 5 receptions on 6 targets for 57 yards receiving. I think it is safe to say he’s the real deal. Now, he has an even better match up against a Chiefs defense that is ranked 28th in defensive DVOA against the rush to go with the 54.3 DK points they gave up to running backs in week 1. If Conner can get 30 touches in this game and sustain the 1.06 DK points per touch that he is averaging right now, were looking at around 31 DK points and at $6700, I am taking that every day of the week.
Chris Thompson v. IND ($5900)
Coming into the season, we did not really know the plan Washington had going forward with their running backs, but with what they did week 1, I love me some Chris Thompson this week! Last week vs. Arizona, Thompson played only 42% of the offensive snaps, but in the 33 snaps he played, he was targeted 7 times, which included 2 targets inside the red zone and 1 touchdown. Thompson averaged 2.25 DK points per touch in week 1 and I have him projected for about 14 touches in week 2, so if he can even stay around 2 DK points per touch, we are getting one heck of a bargain. Add in the fact that he is going to be involved in a game with the 3rd highest total of the day and we are looking at a running back who has a chance to be a top 5 RB this week at an RB13 price.
Phillip Lindsay v. OAK ($4400)
Continuing the trend of paying down at RB this week, I now present you, Phillip Lindsay. In Lindsay’s debut last week against the Seahawks, he had 15 carries for 71 yards and 2 receptions for 31 yards on 3 targets. The most promising part about the rookie out of Colorado was that he looked explosive in his runs and looked like someone who has the ability to take the ball to the house every time he touches it. Lindsay played 26 snaps, only 3 less than Devontae Booker, but was able to touch the ball 17 times during those snaps, with 1 drop. Moving forward, I could see Lindsay’s opportunity growing even more and this may be the lowest we see him priced all season. The matchup he has this week is great for his production as well, as, after week 1, Oakland ranks 31st in rush DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA to running backs. I will be locking Lindsay into a lot of my lineups as this will allow me to add some higher priced receivers!
Jarvis Landry @ NO ($6300)
When you look at Jarvis Landry’s stat line week 1 and now the matchup he has this week, there is no reason he should be the 15th priced WR. We are getting an absolute steal with Landry this week and I will be having him in all of my GPP lineups. Landry was targeted 15 times in week 1 and played 91% of the offensive snaps. Landry managed to only haul in 7 receptions for 106, but if he continues to get this kind of volume, he is going to have a game like we saw from Michael Thomas last week and I want to be on the train when it happens. Everything about Sunday lines up for Landry as he is going to be indoors, in a shootout, oh and not to mention, playing back home in Louisiana. Did I mention that the Saints gave up 84.1 DK points to WR’s in week 1 and rank 30th in DVOA against WR 1’s? Lock. Him. In.
Josh Gordon @ NO ($5800)
Three Cleveland Browns in one article? This is like something from a Rod Serling playwright and now I’m getting nervous. All jokes aside, Josh Gordon is in for a huge week 2 and we are able to get him priced as WR24. Everything I have read and seen this week says Gordon is going to be the No. 2 WR in New Orleans and his opportunity is going to grow. This is a guy who is as talented as any WR in the league and if he can keep his head on straight, is going to be one of the future stars. In week 1, he only played 69% of the offensive snaps and finished with 1 catch for 17 yards and a TD on 3 targets, but there is no reason to believe this number will not rise in the matchup he will have in New Orleans. The saints are coming into week 2 ranked 32nd in pass DVOA against WR2’s and that is something I can see the Browns exploiting with Gordon.
Antonio Brown v. KC ($8800)
By paying down at RB, a WR I am going to make sure to fit in my lineup is Antonio Brown. I already mentioned the total of this game when I talked about Roethlisberger, so any Steelers game that includes scoring and no Le’Veon Bell, we should probably make sure we get ourselves some Antonio Brown. In a game Roethlisberger played terribly, Brown was targeted 16 times and converted that to 25.82 DK points. I currently have Brown projected for 18 targets in week 2 and I also believe he can get us more than the 1.52 DK points per target he got us in week 1. The Chiefs gave up 51.7 DK points to WR’s week 1 and that number should have been even higher because of a few drops. The Chiefs are also currently 25th in DVOA against the pass and 25th against WR1’s, so this should lead to an Antonio Brown field-day.
Randall Cobb v. MIN ($4600)
I really like the value that this slate has to offer and Randall Cobb is one of my favorite value plays. Cobb should have very low ownership this week as people get scared off playing WR’s against the Vikings, but I think Cobb is primed to have a big Sunday.
Before I get into the numbers, with Rodgers not being very mobile, I think the Packers are going to play like they did in the 2nd half against the Bears which included short, quick, timing passes. This is something Cobb excels in. In the 2015 playoff game against the Cowboys, the “Did Dez Catch It” game, Rodgers was hobbled with a torn calf and they went to this quick, timing offense. In that game, Cobb ended up with 11 targets and 8 receptions for 116 yards. I could see that same stat line happening this week. The Vikings secondary is very good, but Cobb’s matchup is going to suit him well.
Cobb should be lined up with either Mike Hughes or Trae Waynes, both players he should be able to exploit. In week 1, Cobb was targeted 10 times and had an absurd 3.22 DK points per target. Obviously, he won’t be able to sustain the 3.22 DK points per target, but what that tells me is he has the ability to take any ball to the house. He is being priced as WR46, which is absolutely absurd and I am going to take advantage of that this week.
Jonnu Smith v. HOU ($3100)
I do not like the value this week at TE as much as I did last week, but I do believe Jonnu Smith can be a great play for $3100. With Delanie Walker out for the season, Smith is stepping into the TE1 role and I really believe he is going to thrive. This week he has a great matchup against a Houston defense that is ranked 30th in DVOA against TE’s and was ranked 27th in 2017, so it does not seem as they are getting much better. I am hoping we can get 5-7 targets for Smith and sneak in a red zone TD and then he will definitely pay his price in tournaments!
Jordan Reed v. IND ($5000)
If you’re looking to pay up at TE, Jordan Reed is the man you want! Reed only had 5 targets in week 1, but turned those 5 targets into 14.8 DK points. I think the targets for Reed are going to rise as him and Alex Smith get on the same page and this is the week I see it happening. The Colts are currently 31st in pass DVOA against TE’s after being 23rd last year so this matchup suits Reed very well. In a week where the people who pay up for TE will most likely go all the way up to Ertz or Kelce, I really like the value and ownership we will be able to get with Reed at $5000.
Good luck to everyone this weekend and make sure to give me a follow on Twitter (@JT_DFS) and let me know how you do!