The quarter point of the NFL season is upon us. Some seasons are officially over and some teams still have the dream of getting to Atlanta. The hardest part about NFL DFS compared to NBA and MLB is our sample size of information. Each NFL team only plays 16 games, so after 3 weeks do we believe in the numbers that are presented to us or do we think it’s a fluke? Breaking down that information and figuring out what is real and what is fake is what separates NFL DFS players at this point in the season. Because of this, there is usually a lot of value on the board during these weeks of the season and it is our job to take advantage of that and win ourselves some money, which is exactly what we are going to do this Sunday!
Now, let’s get to the GPP Money Makers for Week 4!
Andy Dalton @ ATL ($5400)
Andy Dalton is in a matchup that gives him QB1 upside this week. He and the Bengals are 4 point dogs on the road, in a dome, against a Falcons defense that is ranked 25th in PASS DVOA and giving up 28.4 DK points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The total for this game is also the highest on the slate at 52 points which should lead to a great game flow for Dalton. Production has been great for Dalton as well, as he is averaging .56 DK points per attempt. This week I have him projected for 41-43 attempts, to go along with a TD rate of 6.9% and the Falcons giving up scores 42.9% of the time.
I am also really intrigued by Dalton because of his Red Zone passing numbers. In three games, Dalton has attempted 16 passes in the Red Zone and 5 of those passes have turned into touchdowns. Half of his 16 attempts have come inside the 10 and led to 4 touchdowns. The Falcons have given up a touchdown 81.82% of the time opponents have gotten into the Red Zone. So Dalton is going to have his opportunities! I know he has let us down in the past, but LOCK HIM IN!!
Ryan Tannehill @ NE ($5500)
After Dalton, there are a lot of different quarterbacks I like, but for GPP’s, I am going to be rolling with Ryan Tannehill. The fact that Tannehill is going against the Patriots is going to scare people off. But, when you actually dig deep into the numbers, Tannehill is primed for a big Sunday. He’s been very impressive this year averaging .81 DK points per attempt and a TD rate of 9.5%. The Patriots have also not been great against the pass as they rank 23rd in PASS DVOA. The Dolphins are going to be presented with opportunities to score. They are going into New England as 6.5 point dogs with a total of 48.
Ezekiel Elliott v. DET ($7700)
As always, I love taking running backs who are in a game where there team is a home favorite and the game has a low total. That is exactly the spot that Ezekiel Elliott is in this week. The Cowboys are three point favorites. Elliot is going against a Lions defense who has a RUSH DVOA of 27 and give up 34.2 DK points per game to running backs.
To go along with a great matchup, Elliott has been quietly productive. He averaged .95 DK points per touch in a game where he I have him logged for 23 touches. Dallas’s defense has actually been very productive this season as well, only allowing scores 29.4% of the time. So I see most of the points coming from the Dallas side of the ball in this game. When the Cowboys do get in the Red Zone, I expect to see a lot of Zeke. Zeke with the Cowboys defense makes for a great stack in Tourneys this week.
Alvin Kamara @ NYG ($9600)
There are some great values at running back this week, but there is no way I can have a tournament lineup without Alvin Kamara. He has been ridiculous this year and with Mark Ingram coming back next week, the Saints may try and get the most out of him one last time. Last week against the Falcons, Kamara had a ridiculous line of 16 rushing attempts and 15 receptions. 31 TOUCHES!!! I do not see Kamara getting 31 touches this week as the Giants have been good with RB’s against the pass, but I do see him getting 23-25 touches. Kamara is currently averaging a ridiculous 1.51 DK points per touch, so if he can keep this up for at least 1 more week, he is worth all of the $9600 and probably more!
Aaron Jones v. BUF ($4100)
If you’re looking to pivot down from Kerryon Johnson, Aaron Jones is your guy. Aaron Jones only had seven touches in his first game back last week against Washington. But, everything out of Packers camp says that he will see a heavier workload this week against the Bills. Jones is easily the Packers’ most dynamic back. I see them taking full advantage of him this week against the Bills.
First off, Randall Cobb came up on the injury report Thursday with a hamstring. So, if for some reason he cannot go, I do not think McCarthy is ready to trust his young receivers. Instead, he will move Ty Montgomery to the slot this week. There is our first reason Jones will get more touches. Next, Rodgers obviously still is not 100% and the Packers are currently 9 point favorites at home. If the Packers can jump out to an early lead, Jones should become a workhorse for the offense. McCarthy will want to protect Rodgers. After last week’s game, Jones is averaging .81 DK points per attempt. He’s going against a Bills team that is currently giving up 31.9 DK points per game to running back, so I am expecting him to have a big week.
Odell Beckham, Jr. v. NO ($8700)
Almost have to lock Odell in every lineup this week. After having a great year on defense, the Saints defense has been awful this year. I want to target Wide Receivers every week against them. The Saints are giving up 66.3 DK points per game to receivers and are ranked 31st against WR1’s. Odell also averaged just over 11 targets per game and 1.68 Dk points per target so far this season. In a game with a total of 50.5, I am expecting a lot of offense. I think Odell could get up to 13 targets per game, which should lead to some great production.
A.J. Green @ ATL ($7500)
Just like Odell, you might as well lock A.J. Green in every lineup as well. He has been priced low all season and it really does not make sense to me. Green did not play the entire 2nd half last week, but still ended up with 8 targets for 5 receptions and 58 yards. In a matchup against the Falcons who are ranked 23rd against WR1’s, we are almost looking at a floor of 20 DK points. I say this because as I mentioned before, the total for this game is at 52. The Bengals are going to have their opportunities to score. Green is averaging 2.44 DK points per target and it is hard for me to believe he sees less than 10 targets this week.
Sterling Shepard v. NO ($4900)
If you do not want to pay up for Odell, but do want exposure to the Giants, go get some Sterling Shepard! The Saints are even worse against WR2’s than 1’s as they are ranked 32nd. Shepard has been very productive with his opportunities averaging 1.85 DK points per target. I have him projected for 9 targets this week against the Saints. At $4900, Shepard gives us unbelievable value and the ability to pay up at running back.
Eric Ebron v. HOU ($3600)
Well, let’s hop back on the Eric Ebron train. Last week without Jack Doyle, Ebron only had 5 receptions for 33 yards, BUT he was targeted 11 times! Ebron is in a prime position this week as the Texans are ranked dead last, 32nd, against opposing Tight Ends. Through three games, Ebron has also been targeted 6 times in the Red Zone. The Texans defense has given up a touchdown 70% of the time an opposing offense has been in the Red Zone. At 1.75 DK points per target, if Doyle is indeed out again this week, Ebron should be in store for another 10 targets. He’ll be one of the top 10 tight ends of the week.
Geoff Swaim v. DET ($2600)
If you’re looking to punt at TE this week, Geoff Swaim is your guy. Swaim is coming off a week where he had 5 receptions for 47 yards, but off of 7 targets. Prescott seemed to look for Swaim more last week. If Dak still can’t throw the ball downfield at a high level, I expect to see even more Swaim this week. The Lions are also ranked 27th against Tight Ends, so exposing this should be a big part of the Cowboys game plan. I don’t mind pairing Elliott and Swaim in GPP’s on Sunday.
Thanks for reading Week 4’s Draftkings GPP Money Makers! As always, follow me on twitter (@JT_DFS) and let me know how the week went! Don’t forget to check out all the great DFS content (as well as redraft and dynasty) at The Fantasy Authority.