Welcome back for my DraftKings Week 10 GPP plays! Let’s keep this train rolling. My sole focus is to help you identify the best team stacks to push you ahead in tournaments. I’ll select a few POTENTIALLY low-owned GPP plays as well, primarily on DraftKings. I’ll also be referencing various tools I use from sites such as 4for4.com, ProFootballFocus.com, Football Outsiders and Establishtherun.com. These sites have some of the best tools and insights into the industry. My overall goal here is to help you come to your own logical conclusions, trust yourself, and develop your own process. At the end of the day, you make the final decisions. You must hold yourselves accountable. It’s the only way we’re going to learn and improve our game. So, let’s plant our flag, not waiver on convictions, and start winning some money! Let’s look at some of the top DraftKings Week 10 stacks and GPP plays!
DREW BREES ($6700)
Fresh off their bye and almost at full strength the Saints look to get their second half of the season started in a potential blow up spot against the visiting Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons come in off their bye as well but looking vastly different than their opponent. Per Football Outsiders, Atlanta is ranked second to last in pass DVOA. Per 4for4’s (aFPA) metric they are ranked fourth-worst against the QB position allowing 21.8pts per game and PFF has graded them as the worst coverage defense in the league. Did I mention PFF grades the Saints as the second-best pass-blocking unit? This all sets up nicely for the Saints who sit with a 32 point implied team total. Fire up Brees and look to stack him with Michael Thomas (more on this later) or even Alvin Kamara. The Falcons have yet to stop anyone and they will show the Saints very little pushback here. What also helps Brees upside is the return of Falcons’ signal caller Matt Ryan. He’ll be chucking the ball for as long as he can which could push the Saints to keep their foot on the gas pedal. Lock in Brees at $6700 with full confidence.
David Montgomery ($5300)
To say the Bears are having a “tough year” is an understatement. They look nothing like the playoff team they were a year ago as the entire team has taken a step back. But, its places like this where I go to dig for fantasy gold. When people see a team like the Bears and how bad they are they usually stay away from them and ownership goes down. Queue me, running to this dumpster fire while everyone else is running away (hopefully). I’m like Jeff Goldblum’s character driving to the White House in Independence Day. As his father so eloquently put it, “Everyone in the world is trying to get out of Washington and we’re the only schumcks trying to get in”. Yep. I’m THAT schmuck and David Montgomery is who I’m driving to. Join me, won’t you!
Over the last two weeks the Bears have started to loosen the reins on their running back committee as Monty has played on 73% of the snaps in both games. During this time, he’s produced with stat lines of 14-40-2 and 27-135-1. But, what’s even more impressive and encouraging is his 2 TD game came with 5 targets and his 100 yard game came with 4 targets. He’s getting opportunity and he’s converting. This all lines up with what we want out of a Draftkings back. This week the Bears face division rival Detroit in a game that shouldn’t be fast paced with each team trying to control the clock via the run game. Stopping the run might be a challenge for the Lions as they allow the fourth most (aFPA) to RB at 29.3 via 4for4 and are also graded as the fifth-worst run defense in the league via PFF. This feels like a low key “FIRE THE CANNONS” spot for Montgomery considering Detroit’s ineptness against the run and the Bears currently sitting as home favorites. Oh yea, his price is nice too. Yea, FIRE.THE.CANNONS.
Chris Godwin ($7400)
Currently projected to be the highest-scoring game on the slate (52), the Cardinals head to Tampa Bay to take on the Bucs. Both defenses are ranked bottom ten in (aFPA) to receivers and DVOA per Football Outsiders. But the player that sticks out to me the most in this game is Chris Godwin. Over the last couple of weeks, it seems as though the WR1 debate has shifted to the Mike Evans’ side as he has absolutely dominated, which has left Chris Godwin producing moderate but unsexy stat lines (4-43, 7-61). Rationally that should mean Cardinals’ Pro Bowl DB Patrick Peterson should see Mike Evans most of the game. But, lets add a little context to the “fade whoever Peterson is covering” narrative. The last two weeks he’s faced Mike Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Their stat lines were 11-112-1 and 7-112-1. Does it matter who did what? No, the point is they produced. So, while this even gives the green light to Mike Evans I see nothing but flashing green lights and arrows pointing towards Chris Godwin’s direction. He hasn’t scored a TD since week five and that week he scored two. According to ETR’s ownership projection Godwin is sitting between 13-16% and Evans is looking at over 30%. Did I mention Godwin is popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s buy low model? No? Now you know *fights back urge to reference G.I. Joe*. High game total, Godwin popping, and potential for ownership leverage. I was overweight on Godwin last week and that will not change this Sunday. He’s a core GPP play for me. Slot him in and watch him carry you to glory.
Mike Gesicki ($3100)
Per usual tight end has been a crapshoot this year. Even the top end guys like Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle haven’t had the dominate consecutive games we’re accustomed to seeing. Darren Waller was riding a good wave early in the season but has fallen off a bit. Rookie Mark Andrews has slowed down. Evan Engram is always hurt. So, what can we do? The best thing we can do is identify potential upside spots. Snap counts, targets, and opportunity. There are a few spots that look to check those boxes this week but the place I’m going to is Miami, the last place you’re looking to for any kind of fantasy goodness. I know. But, hear me out. Last week the Dolphins unfortunately lost rookie WR Preston William. Which is a bummer because the guy was straight balling out. Enter second-year TE Mike Gesicki who has been decent over the last few weeks. Getting target counts of 7,4,3, and 6. His snaps are holding steady with counts of 63% and 61% over the last two weeks. It’s not great but it shows potential. Preston Williams vacates a lot of targets but don’t expect DeVante Parker to just snatch all those up. The Dolphins face the Colts this week and they’re currently implied for a measly 15 points. Not exciting. But like I said, we’ve got to dig deep, look for opportunity and shoot for upside. I see that with Gesicki. His low ownership and price tag make him even more enticing. Like Tom Cruise so famously said in Risky Business “Sometimes you just gotta say what the F***. Make your move”.
Kyler Murray ($6500)/ Christian Kirk ($5200)/ Larry Fitzgerald ($5500)
- Over the last few weeks the Bucs have been torched by enemy WR duos. Last week it was Tyler Lockett (13-152-2) and DK Metcalf (6-123-1). Week 8, Tajae Sharpe (3-18-1) and A.J. Brown (2-11-1). Okay, so they weren’t torched but you get the idea. Week 6, Curtis Samuel (4-70-1) and D.J. Moore (7-73). With the Bucs/Cards game looking like a possible shootout I think this double stack could prove to be tournament winning. Bring it back with potentially under-owned Godwin (see above) and watch that money roll in.
Drew Brees ($6700), Alvin Kamara ($8200), Michael Thomas ($8300)
- I mentioned Brees earlier and it bears repeating. I love him this week and I really don’t think he’ll get a ton of ownership. I also think people might overthink the RB situation and end up staying completely away and opt to stick with the passing game. Also, don’t let the Falcons run D fool you. While they are top ten in rush DVOA they have still given up nice games to Chris Carson (20-90-1, 15 DK pts) and David Johnson (12-34-1, 6-68-1, 28.2DK pts). This is a game the Saints should control. Stacking Brees and Kamara with the highly owned Thomas should give you massive leverage on anyone stacking him with Brees or just using Thomas as a one-off.
Thanks for checking out my top DraftKings Week 10 GPP stacks and players! Be sure to come back all season and let me help you win money! Follow me @PacingPete on Twitter and check out all our DFS and redraft content at TFA!
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