Welcome back for my DraftKings Week 12 GPP plays! Let’s keep this train rolling. My sole focus is to help you identify the best team stacks to push you ahead in tournaments. I’ll select a few POTENTIALLY low-owned GPP plays as well, primarily on DraftKings. I’ll also be referencing various tools I use from sites such as 4for4.com, ProFootballFocus.com, Football Outsiders and Establishtherun.com. These sites have some of the best tools and insights into the industry. My overall goal here is to help you come to your own logical conclusions, trust yourself, and develop your own process. At the end of the day, you make the final decisions. You must hold yourselves accountable. It’s the only way we’re going to learn and improve our game. So, let’s plant our flag, not waiver on convictions, and start winning some money! Let’s look at some of the top DraftKings Week 12 stacks and GPP plays!
Sam Darnold ($5800)
There have been quite a few surprises during the last couple of weeks. The Falcons remembered how to play defense (Seriously, what the hell was that?!) and Sam Darnold has started to look like guy many predicted he would be this season. Was it the mono? Did somebody awaken Adam Gase’s brain, Re-Animator style? Whatever the case may be Darnold has woke up and produced fantastic back to back DK point totals of 21.7 and 26.4. Yea, I know. They were against the Redskins and Giants. Two of the worst teams in the league. But, it’s not like this week’s opponent, the Raiders are world-beaters on defense. Far from it.
Though they have played well and currently sit on the right side of .500 don’t let their record fool you. The 2019 version of the Oakland Raiders defense has many cracks in the dam. They are currently bottom twelve via Football Outsiders in Pass DVOA. They also sport bottom twelve PFF grades in both pressure and coverage. Meaning when Darnold drops back he’ll have plenty of time finding an open man. Which would explain why they rank fourth worst in 4for4’s (aFPA) metric allowing 21.2ppg to QBs. This gives us a potential floor for Darnold with plenty of upside. Exactly what we want for GPPs.
Derrick Henry ($6900)
It’s becoming a common theme that when we hit November through December Derrick Henry hits another gear and offers weekly slate breaker potential. This week, fresh of their bye, the Titans are home for a divisional matchup with Jacksonville Jaguars. A team Henry routinely plays well against averaging a rushing stat line of 20-98-1 over the last four games. Heating up prior to the bye (23-188-2, 13-63-1/3-36-1, 16-75) look for Henry to keep his foot on the gas pedal against a Jags team that has had a difficult time holding enemy backs in check. Via Football Outsiders they currently are ranked third-worst in rushing DVOA. Per PFF , have the tenth worst graded rush defense in the league and allow 26.9pts to RB-PPR per 4for4’s (aFPA) metric. Also, the Titans are (-3) home favorites. It all lines up to FIRE.THE.CANNONS. Ride that #HenryHeater in tournaments. Reap the rewards.
Chris Godwin ($7200)
Sitting atop the main slate as the game with the highest implied total (51) the Bucs/Falcons divisional showdown has all of the looks of a shootout. When looking at this game lineup construction will be interesting, primarily due to the resurgence of the Falcons defense which has held its last two opponents, the Saints and Panthers, to point totals of just nine and six after being pummeled in every game before that. Are they changed? Who knows.
What I do know is that WRs are still putting up solid to spectacular numbers against the Falcons secondary. DJ Moore (8-95), Michael Thomas (13-152), Tyler Lockett (6-100). They still rank in the bottom ten in Pass DVOA per FO. They have the seventh-worst graded pass coverage per PFF, and they give up the second most (aFPA) to PPR-WR. This all sets up well, on paper, for Chris Godwin who’s had a rough stretch of games and could bounce back in a big way this week. He’s still priced up which should keep his ownership in check in large field tournaments. ETR currently projects his ownership to be in the 13-16% range. That could rise, but I’d be willing to go overweight on the field for a player who’s still commanding the second-most targets on the team. I’m treating last week’s six target game like a blip on the radar. Prior to that, he was getting target counts of 8, 9 and 12. In a game with a high total, and both defense showing glaring weaknesses against opposing WRs look for Godwin and Mike Evans to feast.
Ryan Griffin ($4200)
Oh, look, it’s another uninteresting week at TE. This might lead people to pay up for the only elite TE on the slate, Zach Ertz. But I’m paying down again. Hey, it worked out last week (Thanks, Ross Dwelley!). I see no reason why it can’t pay off again here and that’s why I’m going to Ryan Griffin. A player who’s seen a spike in snap rate with Chris Herndon done for the season, his snap rate percentage over the last few weeks minus Herndon: 95%, 93%, and 85%. His stat line in those games, 4-66-2, 6-50 and 5-109-1. He’s been given opportunity and been more than productive. When you consider all these factors it seems that DK is pricing Griffin correctly. In fact, when it’s all said and done, we may look back and find that DK underpriced Griffin once he became the Jets full time TE. But, let’s not put the cart before the horse. Just like we can’t project if this kind of production is sustainable, we have no way of knowing whether DK is pricing him correctly or not. Just a morsel of information to nibble on. Lets get back to Sunday. This week the Jets face the Raiders at home. The “West Coast team traveling East Coast” narrative is absolutely in play. Over the last four weeks, the Raiders have surrendered these stat lines to opposing TEs, 5-26 (Bengals), 4-30-1(Hunter Henry), 5-72 (Lions), 8-69-2 (Texans). On the season the Raiders are third-worst in (aFPA) allowing 16.2ppg to TE-PPR. If Griffin stays on this course expect his price and ownership to rise. ETR currently projects him around 5-8%. Now is the time to buy!
Darnold/ Robby Anderson ($4800)/Griffin
- I’ve already mentioned Darnold and Griffin but let’s go full-on double stack with Robby Anderson. His production of late will keep him low owned and he’s the perfect kind of GPP dart you want in a stack like this. And if you’re feeling frisky, I’d even throw in Tyrell Williams for a complete game stack since both teams rank bottom ten in (aFPA) to WR-PPR. The game total currently sits at (47) but I think this game could be a sneaky shootout.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5000)/ DeVante Parker ($5200)/Odell Beckham ($7000)
- It’s amazing to me that Parker is still underpriced. The guy produces on a weekly basis and gets opportunity. Over the last four weeks he’s accumulated targets of 8, 6, 10, 10 and finished with DK points of 11.9, 15.7, 11.9, 23.5. Stack him up with #FitzMagic where nobody will be on a tanking Miami team. Dolphins/Browns has the potential to be another sneaky shootout with a current game total of (46). The Browns are slowly trending up and OBJ is in a blow-up spot. So, it would make sense to build this stack and bring it back with Beckham at one of his lowest prices ever. Especially when more people will be on the Browns side of this game.
Thanks for checking out my top DraftKings Week 12 GPP stacks and players! Be sure to come back all season and let me help you win money! Follow me @PacingPete on Twitter and check out all our DFS and redraft content at TFA!
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