Welcome back to my DraftKings Week 14 GPP plays! Let’s keep this train rolling. My sole focus is to help you identify the best team stacks to push you ahead in tournaments. I’ll select a few potentially low-owned GPP plays as well, primarily on DraftKings. I’ll also be referencing various tools I use from sites such as 4for4.com, ProFootballFocus.com, Football Outsiders and Establishtherun.com. These sites have some of the best tools and insights into the industry. My overall goal here is to help you come to your own logical conclusions, trust yourself, and develop your own process. At the end of the day, you make the final decisions. You must hold yourselves accountable. It’s the only way we’re going to learn and improve our game. So, let’s plant our flag, not waiver on convictions, and start winning some money! Let’s look at some of the top DraftKings Week 14 stacks and GPP plays!
Ryan Tannehill ($5800)
With everyone focused on Derrick Henry’s annual “winter domination” there is leverage to be had with his QB, Ryan Tannehill. Since being inserted as the Titans starting QB back in week 7, we’ve witnessed a complete turnaround from the former first-round pick. Tannehill has come in clutch not only as a fantastic fantasy option but from a real-life perspective as well, making the Titans look like a force as they push for a playoff spot.
This week the Titans travel to Oakland to face a reeling Raiders team that has lost back to back games and are sputtering to finish their 2019. (FWIW non-divisional games are fun to target during this time of year *wink wink, nudge nudge*). The Raiders currently rank third-worst in 4for4’s (aFPA) metric allowing 22.2 points to the quarterback position. Most recently they’ve allowed stat lines of 20/29 for 315-2 to Sam Darnold and divisional foe Patrick Mahomes went 15/29 for 175-1, both in blowout losses. They continue to be graded bottom ten in pass rush per PFF which should bode well against Tennessee’s top twelve pass-blocking unit. Translation: Expect Tannehill to get plenty of time to drop back and find an open receiver. A struggle with Tannehill will be which passing option to stack him with. A.J. Brown is always in play as is Corey Davis, but their production is sporadic. Don’t forget about tight end Jonnu Smith, another option with Delanie Walker on IR (more on Smith later). Also, one more nugget of goodness. Tannehill, while productive, has been a bit up and down. His DK points starting from week seven: 23.18, 19.42, 28.04, 19.94, 33.36, 14.78. *Sings* “DO YOU SEE WHAT I SEE”. #JustSaying
Devonta Freeman ($5400)
Value at RB is tough this week. We really need to pay attention to injuries. Will the Vikings rest Dalvin Cook and give rookie Alexander Mattison the keys for a week? Do we pay down for this generation’s Beatles in Patrick Laird? So many questions. So few answers we might not get until literally an hour before kick-off. So, we must be savvy and contrarian which leads me to polarizing Falcons RB, Devonta Freeman. There are two things that stick out to me here. The Falcons are currently three-point home favorites AND while the Falcons deploy other RBs to give Freeman rest he is their main guy. Following his injury and two Brian Hill flops, Freeman was reinserted back into the starting role, playing 67% of the team’s snaps.
The only caveat here is that there’s an unknown factor in play for the Carolina Panthers since they just fired Head Coach Ron Rivera. But with Freeman’s workload and role in the passing game secured we should be good to roll him out at $5400. Production has been spotty for the veteran but we should keep in mind the Panthers rank dead last in (aFPA) to RB allowing 31.3 points and rank dead last in FO’s rush DVOA metric. Home favorite, implied team total of 25, and PPR opportunities. That’s as good as it gets for a guy who has jilted fantasy owners over the entire season. “Be greedy when others are fearful”.
Mike Evans ($7200)
A couple of weeks back I wrote up Chris Godwin. His price hadn’t come down despite little production from him or fellow wideout Mike Evans. Ownership wasn’t very high either as he was in a perceived “difficult” matchup against division foe Atlanta. What did he do? 40.4 DK points. I remember how much of the talk revolved around a “Mike Evans bounce back spot”. Well, when the market is focused on one guy you just pivot to the other side, gain leverage, and watch the money roll in. That’s the exact same way I’m looking at things here. Evan’s last four games have produced underperforming fantasy results and extremely disgruntled fantasy owners. And for now, at least, it seems like much of the talk is being focused on Chris Godwin.
*In Ross Gellar voice* “PIVOT, PIVOT, PIVOT”.
The Bucs head back home in a non-divisional matchup (SOUND THE ALARMS) against a Colts team that is struggling to cover the secondary allowing a bottom ten total of 36.5 (aFPA) to receivers. Most notably allowing stat lines to WR tandems Nuk Hopkins/Will Fuller (13-234-2) and DJ Chark/Chris Conley (14-162-2) in weeks 11 and 12. This tandem is just as good as what Houston rolls out and will no doubt give the Colts secondary fits. And if you’re worried about Evans, don’t be. He’s still being targeted over the last four weeks getting counts of 6, 8, 8, and 11. These things tend to regress, and Evans is in a “get right spot” with positive touchdown regression looking at him square in the face. POP, POP, POP, POP! That’s the sound of Mike Evans popping as top 5 candidate in the AIR YARDS BUY LOW MODEL for this week. Give me ALL the Mike Evans shares!
Jonnu Smith ($3100)
Ugh. I hate this position. Seriously. But here we go. As it stands right now there are quite a few options we can go to, but I try to pair up a pass catcher with the QB I write up. This weeks “mouth vomit” candidate is Titans TE Jonnu Smith. This is strictly matchup based and you should only use him in a stack with Tannehill. Otherwise you could be cratering your team (I apologize in advance).
Over the last four games the Raiders have given up stat lines of 4-30-1 (Hunter Henry), 5-26 (Bengals TE), 3-13-1 (Ryan Griffin) and 5-90 (Travis Kelce). They allow the third-most (aFPA) to TE at 15.3. Again, this is a matchup-based play. Smith’s targets over the season have been erratic to say the least. The most he’s got is seven and that was back in week 8. However, he did finish that game with a stat line of 6-78-1. While this isn’t a ringing endorsement it is potential value at a volatile spot. Smith might not be good, but the Raiders are in fact that bad. Shoot your shot. You just might want to close your eyes when you do it. *cringes*
Jameis Winston ($6400)/Mike Evans/Chris Godwin ($7300)
- I’ve already outlined why Mike Evans is my main guy this week. But you could take it up a notch and use this double stack in tournaments to put you ahead of the field (Again, refer to my Mike Evans write-up showing how Jags AND Texans WR combos destroyed that secondary). Mainly because Winston should come in at low ownership and people will likely be choosing between either WR as a one-off. From a game theory standpoint, you could gain massive leverage with this stack when you factor in Tampa’s implied team total and a reluctance to use this offense.
Sam Darnold ($6000)/ Jamison Crowder ($5300)/ Robby Anderson ($5100)
- Despite this being their second divisional game I’m not shying away from using the Jets offense. Yes, they laid an egg last week against the Bengals. Yes, it’s the Jets. But I’m going right back to the well in a spot most won’t look to. The Dolphins are still hemorrhaging points to opponents. They STILL are ranked bottom five in almost every statistical category, defensively, on the planet (well every category I cite here). Carson Wentz, who’s played terribly this entire season, had a massive game against them. The Jets don’t have a run game to speak of with “dusty” Le’Veon Bell in the backfield, so expect a pass-first game plan. Vegas likes them as well with a projected team total of 25. JimCarreyThatSoundsGoodillhavethat.gif.
Thanks for checking out my top DraftKings Week 14 GPP stacks and players! Be sure to come back all season and let me help you win money! Follow me @PacingPete on Twitter and check out all our DFS and redraft content at TFA!
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