Welcome back to my DraftKings Week 15 GPP plays! Let’s keep this train rolling. My sole focus is to help you identify the best team stacks to push you ahead in tournaments. I’ll select a few potentially low-owned GPP plays as well, primarily on DraftKings. I’ll also be referencing various tools I use from sites such as 4for4.com, ProFootballFocus.com, Football Outsiders and Establishtherun.com. These sites have some of the best tools and insights into the industry. My overall goal here is to help you come to your own logical conclusions, trust yourself, and develop your own process. At the end of the day, you make the final decisions. You must hold yourselves accountable. It’s the only way we’re going to learn and improve our game. So, let’s plant our flag, not waiver on convictions, and start winning some money! Let’s look at some of the top DraftKings Week 15 stacks and GPP plays!
Kyler Murray ($5600)
Recency bias will have people shying away from the Cardinals Rookie QB. They’re currently home dogs (+3) to an unimposing Cleveland Browns team. Wait, Cleveland is favored in Arizona. I know the Cards have struggled recently. But, let’s dig a little deeper, shall we? Coming off their bye the Cards faced the Rams and Steelers – two top 10 defenses who held Murray to 14.3 and 13 DraftKings points. The 13 points were his lowest since Week 8. Yea, it’s been a while. This week he gets a middling pass defense who are allowing 19.0 (aFPA), bottom ten in the league. Those QBs they’ve “held in check”, Andy Dalton, Devlin Hodges, and Mason Rudolph. Impressed? No, you shouldn’t be. Fitzmagic was the only QB from that block to come away with a 20+ day. FITZMAGIC. This defense can be had and they’re on the road. This screams “bounce back spot”. The public is still down on them which should keep ownership low. And given it’s a 13-game slate his ownership should be even more depressed. Fire up Murray in what will be looked at as a contrarian play. Want to separate yourself even more? Stack him up with Christian Kirk (Browns are bottom 12 against WR #1 and #2 via Football Outsiders). Dollar, Dollar, Bills y’all!
David Montgomery ($5500)
The Bears travel to Green Bay to face the Packers for the second time this season. Historically, the second time around divisional matchups tend to be lower scoring. Vegas is currently betting on that trend with a game total of 40 and the Packers as (-5) home favorites. All this despite the Bears coming in on a three-game win streak. What does this mean for us? Low owned players with secure workloads at reduced prices. COME ON DOWN, David Montgomery! It’s fun to be contrarian, isn’t it?
On the surface, this may seem like a straight up crazy play. So, let’s dig a little deeper and stomach that queasy feeling. Over the last three games, the Packers rush defense has given up these stat lines to the Redskins (27-122-1, 7-43), Giants (22-89, 3-32) and Niners (19-111-2, 3-32). For added context, Saquon Barkley received the lion share of that workload while the Redskins deployed four backs and the Niners used three. Since week nine the Bears have operated as a two-headed backfield. That’s it. And even then, Monty has played over 60% of the snaps over the prior three games, well ahead of Tarik Cohen. Worried the Bears get down to the Green Bay A-Rod’s and they pull Monty in favor of Cohen for a passing game approach? Don’t be. Back on Turkey Day when David Blough emerged from a deep sewer as Pennywise’s roommate he hit the Bears for two early TD’s. The Bears were forced to pass more and Montgomery’s stat line was 16-75, 2-12-1. Montgomery is very much apart of this offense, trailing or not. And they’ll need him in what should be a low scoring hard-fought affair between two teams still playing for something. Did I mention Green Bay sports a bottom ten rush DVOA? No? Now you know. *Queue the GI Joe Theme*
Jarvis Landry ($6700)
Who would have guessed that at this point in the season Jarvis Landry would be a more reliable option than OBJ? I didn’t. I drafted OBJ in a ton of leagues and ironically those teams are done for the regular season. I’ve been targeting him in DFS and at the same time setting my money on fire. What can I say, I’m a multitasker. But I digress. Let’s focus on the one Browns wide receiver who’s been competent and reliable this season.
Landry has a ton of positive indicators this week. He’s facing a Cardinals defense that’s bottom three in (aFPA) and has surrendered huge stat lines over the past few weeks. Diontae Johnson (6-60-1), Robert Woods (13-172), and Deebo Samuel (8-134) have all had success. Arizona has seemed to have fallen off since they came off their bye. But, with vulnerabilities to both the Browns and Cardinals defenses, this seems like a spot where you could get exposure to both sides in a potentially high scoring game. And that’s where playing Landry and Kyler Murray (mentioned above) could pay HUGE dividends. Game stacks galore baby!
Ian Thomas ($3100)
So, we’ve gone from limited options at TE to a ton of value. I’m going to my dude, Ian Thomas. Last season in a very similar situation, Olsen was shut down, and Thomas came in dominating the last few weeks of the season. Last week showed no different as he stepped in for the concussed Olsen and posted a stat line of 5-57-1 on ten targets. TEN. Thomas has immediately become a solid part of this offense. Mind you this happened with an in-season coaching change.
In another non-divisional game (SOUND THE ALARMS) the Panthers take on the Seahawks who allow the sixth-most (aFPA) to the TE position. The Hawks have been torched over the last three weeks, allowing these stat lines to Tyler Higbee (7-116), Kyle Rudolph (4-50-1), and Zach Ertz (12-91-1). The Panthers are currently home dogs (+6) and project to be trailing which bodes well for his opportunity. With so much value scattered throughout tight ends, take a shot on Thomas. He’s reliable, playing most of the snaps, and is in a prime spot to pay off his cheap price tag with relatively low ownership. Time to hop abroad the trolley!
Gardner Minshew ($5500), Leonard Fournette ($7600), Chris Conley ($3600)
- This is a solid “don’t overthink it” spot. The Jags head to the west coast to face an Oakland Raiders team that can’t seem to stop anyone they play. They allow the third-most (aFPA) to QBs and are bottom five in both pass and rush DVOA. This has all the makings of an Uncle Len game. But, stacking him up with Minshew and Conley might give you the that “million-dollar edge”.
Ryan Tannehill ($6500), Derrick Henry ($8500), A.J. Brown ($6000)
- I wrote up Tannehill last week as my GPP QB and he paid off. I’m going right back to that well with this double stack. Tennessee is home this week in a game that’s currently projected to score over 50 points. Houston allows the second most (aFPA) to QBs, third-most to RB, and tenth most to WR. Prices are up on these guys which should help you gain leverage by double stacking them when the field will be using them as one-offs.
Thanks for checking out my top DraftKings Week 15 GPP stacks and players! Be sure to come back all season and let me help you win money! Follow me @PacingPete on Twitter and check out all our DFS and redraft content at TFA!
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