Welcome back to my DraftKings Week 16 GPP plays! Let’s keep this train rolling. My sole focus is to help you identify the best team stacks to push you ahead in tournaments. I’ll select a few potentially low-owned GPP plays as well, primarily on DraftKings. I’ll also be referencing various tools I use from sites such as 4for4.com, ProFootballFocus.com, Football Outsiders and Establishtherun.com. These sites have some of the best tools and insights in the industry. My overall goal here is to help you come to your own logical conclusions, trust yourself, and develop your own process. At the end of the day, you make the final decisions. You must hold yourselves accountable. It’s the only way we’re going to learn and improve our game. So, let’s plant our flag, not waiver on convictions, and start winning some money! Let’s look at some of the top DraftKings Week 16 stacks and GPP plays!
Russell Wilson ($7000)
The Seahawks head home for a divisional rematch against the Arizona Cardinals. Yes, this is the kind of game I’d normally shy away from. But there are some outside factors that have me wanting to play Wilson heavily in tournaments. Despite this being their second go-around Vegas currently projects a 51 point game total with 31 of those points being projected for the Seahawks. Could the Hawks shut down the Cards, play ball control and feed Chris Carson all day? Sure. But, it’s not 2013 and Wilson doesn’t have the “Legion of Boom” behind him, meaning there will be opportunity for the Cards to turn this into a shootout. The Seahawks are also playing for their #1 seed in the playoffs and their inevitable matchup with the Niners which will decide who’s winning the west and getting a first-round bye. Motivation. When we get this late in the year it’s something we must seriously consider. When picking players. Want stats? The Cardinals are STILL ranked dead last against QBs per 4for4’s (aFPA), allowing 24.4 PPG and rank fifth-worst against wide receiver, giving up 38.2 PPG (FIRE UP THOSE WILSON/LOCKETT STACKS!), using the same metric. Many might go back to Carson in this matchup and for good reason. When a home team is a double-digit favorite (-10) the running back is usually the safest bet for points. Going this route will help you gain leverage and gives you a ton of upside, especially when using that stack. I can’t emphasize that enough.
Devonta Freeman ($6000)
I’m going right back to the Devonta Freeman well this week. Just a couple weeks ago I had Freeman written up in this same spot and he paid off with 19.4 DraftKings points at a $5400 price tag against the Panthers who have the worst rush defense in the league. This week the Falcons take on another terrible run defense in the Jacksonville Jaguars as home favorites (-7.5). The Jags are graded worst in the league in tackling via PFF. Per Football Outsiders they have the second-worst rush DVOA and lastly, they rank second to last in (aFPA) allowing 30ppg. From a statistical perspective, this sets up perfectly for Freeman and his $6k price tag. We talked about motivation with Russell Wilson and this is a spot where motivation won’t affect Freeman’s usage. If the Jags come to play Freeman should be involved in the pass game. If the Jags just go through the motions Freeman has “blow up spot” written all over this. “Thank you, sir, may I have another.”
Courtland Sutton ($6200)
I referenced motivation in my QB/RB write-ups as it relates to the whole team and how it can affect the outcome of a game. But, there’s another kind of motivation that could very well play a large part in how this next player performs in Week 16. Courtland Sutton was a major snub when the names were announced for this year’s Pro Bowl team. Despite mediocre to worse quarterback play, Sutton has shown he’s capable of putting up dominant numbers in impressive fashion. This past week when asked about his snub Sutton simply responded with “It is what it is.” repeatedly, making it very clear that he’s going to let his play on the field show what his true feelings are. Of course, it only helps Sutton’s cause that Detroit is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Detroit ranks bottom 4 in both Pass DVOA and (aFPA) to WR-PPR (42.0ppg). And just in case you’re worried about Darius Slay, don’t be. The last four opposing WR1 did this: Chris Godwin (5-121), Stefon Diggs (6-92), Allen Robinson (8-86-1), and Terry McLaurin (5-72). A highly motivated player playing against a weak passing defense. Good luck, Detroit.
Dallas Goedert ($4100)
The Eagles’ wide receiver core has been decimated by injuries, leaving Zach Ertz as Philly’s most reliable and best pass catcher. Because of this, Ertz has double digit targets in three of the last four games. After that Miles Sanders and Dallas Goedert have been the next men up. I really like Goedert as a pivot of the pricier Ertz in GPP’s this week. Injuries have forced the Eagles to play more two TE sets, putting Goedert in a position for more opportunities and his targets count over the last four games (8, 7, 6, 6) are a good indicator that he’s worth the pivot and his $4100 price tag should keep his ownership well in check. Look for the Eagles to target both of their TEs against a Dallas defense that is ranked bottom five versus TE’s per Football Outsiders and rank bottom six in (aFPA) allowing 14.3ppg to TE-PPR. Getting exposure to the cheaper Goedert will be a great way to gain leverage on what should be a highly owned Zach Ertz.
Wilson, Chris Carson ($8500), Tyler Lockett ($7600)
- Did I mention this stack earlier? Oh yea, I did. Add on Carson to get full exposure to this offense and even consider Christian Kirk to make it a game stack. YOU.ARE.WELCOME.
Lamar Jackson ($8000), Marquise Brown $5200), Mark Andrews ($5900)
- I guess I’m in a “pay up” mood. Because none of these guys are cheap. Most will look to stack Action Jackson with one or the other. Get leverage and use both.
Thanks for checking out my top DraftKings Week 16 GPP stacks and players! Be sure to come back all season and let me help you win money! Follow me @PacingPete on Twitter and check out all our DFS and redraft content at TFA!
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