Welcome back for my DraftKings Week 7 GPP plays! Let’s keep this train rolling. My sole focus is to help you identify the best team stacks to push you ahead in tournaments. I’ll select a few POTENTIALLY low-owned GPP plays as well, primarily on DraftKings. I’ll also be referencing various tools I use from sites such as 4for4.com, ProFootballFocus.com, Football Outsiders and Establishtherun.com. These sites have some of the best tools and insights into the industry. My overall goal here is to help you come to your own logical conclusions, trust yourself, and develop your own process. At the end of the day, you make the final decisions. You must hold yourselves accountable. It’s the only way we’re going to learn and improve our game. So, let’s plant our flag, not waiver on convictions, and start winning some money! Let’s look at some of the top DraftKings Week 7 stacks and GPP plays!
Gardner Minshew ($5400), DJ Chark ($6000), Dede Westbrook ($4900)
The Jags ran into a brick wall last week against the vaunted Saints defense. Six points. That’s all Jacksonville got. But as the Jags turn the page to another week, they luck into “opposite day”. The Bengals pass defense ranks 30th in DVOA, 24th (aFPA) against QBs, and rank 25th and 29th against opposing WRs #1 and #2 per Football Outsiders. In short, they don’t wait for Halloween to give away their treats. Prior to week six GODner Minshew had scored 27.2, 16.7, 18.0 and 17.1 DK points. His highest price during those weeks was $5300. With the Bengals giving up 19.2 (aFPA) to QBs it gives us a good floor to project for Minshew at a low price and what should be low ownership. It’s #MinshewTime baby! Another major note is that the Bengals will be without their top DBs as William Jackson AND Dre Kirkpatrick have already been ruled out. Keep that in mind when you look at previous box scores and see that the Bengals have been stingy against enemy wideouts, allowing the best game to Diontae Johnson back in week three with a 6-77-1 line. Translation, fire up DJ Chark and Dede Westbrook as they are in a prime bounce-back spot against a defense that’s injured and will likely be focused on stopping Leonard Fournette (more on him later). Jacksonville should also benefit from the Bengals pace of play as they rank 6th in the league. Couple that with Jalen Ramsey being shipped off to the Rams and it opens the door for the Bengals to throw more which could lead to more plays and opportunities for the Jags. This is a great game to stack and differentiate with as most of the field could gravitate towards the ARZ/NYG game and Bills in more obvious spots. In GPP’s we want the “not so obvious” spots. Well, here you go!
Jared Goff ($6200)
QB is going to be interesting this week. So many good options in so many good spots. I just talked about low priced and potentially low owned Gardner Minshew. But, another QB who could get little attention due to his awful game last week and tons of negative buzz is Jared Goff. Despite his struggles, DraftKings still has Goff priced at $6200. Being priced amongst better options like Daniel Jones ($6100), Jimmy G ($6000), and even Josh Allen ($6500), it’s possible we see Goff on the lower end of the ownership spectrum. Looking past last week we see Goff in a bounce back smash spot. Even after Head Coach Dan Quinn took over defensive play-calling duties the Falcons have somehow been worse on defense. Atlanta is bottom three versus all enemy wideouts per Football Outsider and ranked 30th in pass DVOA and they also rank 31st (aFPA) to QBs allowing 23.4ppg. The last four QBs to face the Falcons, Kyler Murray (31.8), Deshaun Watson (44.7), Marcus Mariota (23.3), and Jacoby Brissett (23.8). If those last two names don’t get you excited about Goff’s potential against this “defense” then I don’t know what will. It’s also good to remember that Mariota and Brissett don’t have the firepower at WR that Goff does. This game sits at a mouth-watering 54.5 over/under. Fade recency bias and load up on this potential slate breaker.
Leonard Fournette ($7000)
Okay, settle in kids cause I’m about to rant and rave all about my overall favorite play on this slate. Earlier I spoke at length about how Jaguars passing game is in a prime bounce back spot. The same can be said of Leonard Fournette’s matchup. Via Football Outsiders, the Bengals rank 4th worst in run DVOA, rank 5th worst versus pass-catching backs and via 4for4 they rank dead last in (aFPA) given up to RBs (34.9). FIRE. THE. CANNONS. Now, before you jump all over me after I said, “We want the NOT so obvious spots”, I get it. Lenny is absolutely going to be chalk in cash games (ok, maybe GPPs too. But who knows)? His price isn’t going to kill you (7k) and there’s no CMC on the slate. Hear me out. What could curve “Fournette Chalk week” is the re-emergence of one Saquon Barkley. As of this writing, he continues to get full practices in and looks to be on track in his own smash spot against the Cardinals. THAT right there is why we can’t fully let ownership scare us away from Fournette. The one snag in my thinking process? Price. Barkley is still the highest priced RB on the slate at $8900. Which could drive ownership towards Fournette. At the risk of chasing my own tail I’m going plant my flag and stick by my conviction. Fournette is a core play for me. If I want to be different, I can stack Lenny with Minshew and Chark. That will be an EXTREMELY low owned stack that will gain you a ton of leverage
T.Y. Hilton ($5900)
Healthy and at home in a favorable matchup, T.Y. Hilton looks to help the Colts get things going against a Houston secondary that struggles to contain opposing wide receivers. Per PFF the Texans are graded as the 7th worst in coverage and via 4for4’s (aFPA) rank 27th against wideouts. This all sets up well for Hilton at home on the fast track. Hilton also has a fantastic track record against the Texans. Over the last four games he’s averaging 5 receptions for 126 yards. That gives Hilton a potentially nice floor to pay off his generous price where he could break the slate. The tricky part of this situation is Hilton’s ownership projections. Just a couple days ago ETR had Hilton’s ownership projections around 12%. Not bad. However, his projection currently sits at 40%, the highest on the slate. I’m willing to eat the chalk here on Hilton. As long as he stays healthy, he should stay north of 6k after this week. Yes, that’s remembering that Jacoby Brissett is throwing him the ball. But that’s not even going to matter. Take advantage of Hilton’s price while you can.
Mark Andrews ($4900)
Tight end has been an interesting position most of this season and week 7 is no different. Despite being in a game with a 49-point total it shouldn’t surprise people to see Andrews on the lower end of ownership percentages. This is due in part to the return of Hunter Henry and his egregious mispricing of $4000. However, pivoting off Henry to Andrews could prove to be wise. With Hollywood Brown potentially being out, it sets up for Andrews to be Lamar Jackson’s main target against a Seattle defense that ranks only behind Arizona in 4for4’s (aFPA) versus TEs. In these situations, we want the player getting the most volume with a consistent snap rate. Mark Andrews checks those boxes, especially in the target category where he leads the entire Ravens offense (47).
Thanks for checking out my top DraftKings Week 7 GPP stacks and players! Be sure to come back all season and let me help you win money! Follow me @PacingPete on Twitter and check out all our DFS and redraft content at TFA!
For more information and who to play and fade this week be sure to jump into our free slack channel! Join the Slack: We have a DFS slack channel setup where we are always talking plays, roster construction, bankroll management, and more. Simply click the link to sign up. Oh, yeah. It’s totally free. Come join the DegeNation today!