Welcome back for my DraftKings Week 9 GPP plays! Let’s keep this train rolling. My sole focus is to help you identify the best team stacks to push you ahead in tournaments. I’ll select a few POTENTIALLY low-owned GPP plays as well, primarily on DraftKings. I’ll also be referencing various tools I use from sites such as 4for4.com, ProFootballFocus.com, Football Outsiders and Establishtherun.com. These sites have some of the best tools and insights into the industry. My overall goal here is to help you come to your own logical conclusions, trust yourself, and develop your own process. At the end of the day, you make the final decisions. You must hold yourselves accountable. It’s the only way we’re going to learn and improve our game. So, let’s plant our flag, not waiver on convictions, and start winning some money! Let’s look at some of the top DraftKings Week 9 stacks and GPP plays!
With a ten-game slate I’m changing things up a bit with the format. Stacks will be provided below this week’s GPP picks.
Sam Darnold ($5900)
This pick is not for the faint of heart. But it’s a ten-game slate, the pickings are slim, and we really need to dig if we want to differentiate on this smaller slate. This brings me to Sam Darnold. Now before you go laughing so hard you vomit (I’m trying not vomit as I type this) hear me out. I get it, the Jets have been tremendously bad. Darnold looks like he’s taken a step back. The entire offense has been dreadful. So, why am I even considering this? Two reasons. First, they face a blatantly tanking Miami Dolphins who have given up decent games to the last three QBs they’ve faced. Mason Rudolph (20/36 251 2-1), Josh Allen (16/26 202 2-0), Case Keenum (13/25 166 2-0). Second, price. Darnold is only $5900. Despite his struggles, Darnold is a far better quarterback than Rudolph and Keenum and it’s not particularly close. He has the upside. The problem is he hasn’t shown a shred of it recently. But, much like the Atlanta Falcons, the Dolphins offer a cure-all remedy for struggling offenses. Via PFF they grade out as the worst pass rush in the league and were also given the second-worst coverage grade. According to 4for4’s (aFPA) metric, they allow 22.7pts per game to the QB position. And if that wasn’t enough to convince you, ETR’s current ownership projection currently has Darnold at sub 10%. On paper this is a “get right dream matchup” for Darnold and the Jets. Keep that gagging feeling in check and jump on the Darnold train while most have jumped off.
Derrick Henry ($5700)
We really need to decide if we’re going for a “stars and scrubs” or “Team Jam’Em In” approach this week at RB. Most of, if not all, the options available at RB with lion share usage are priced at 7k and above. There are only two options in between the 6k-7k range. Marlon Mack and a banged-up Josh Jacobs. That’s it. Looking below 6k will be a struggle. But, there’s one guy that sticks out and I don’t feel it’s particularly close – Derrick Henry. Henry has been the bell cow for his team and in recent weeks his snap percentage has backed that up (61%, 53%, 75%, 67%). As this has happened Dion Lewis has seen his snaps decline from 40% to just above 30% and registered back to back one touch games. Also working in Henry’s favor is his matchup. Football Outsiders ranks the Panthers with the worst rush DVOA in the league. They gave up just over 200 yards to the Niners last week (105yds and 3TDs alone to Coleman) and 108 yards to Leonard Fournette. While this all sets up nicely for Henry this play looks more like a contrarian approach (and that’s perfectly fine). The Titans are (+3.5) road dogs. Facing a Panthers team that just got wrecked for 51pts against San Francisco. They’ll be looking to bounce back at home against a vulnerable Tennessee defense. But, with Kyle Allen still at the helm the game doesn’t project to be fast-paced and keeping things relatively close will factor into Henry reaching his ceiling with possibly more. Which is exactly what you want at Henry’s price and ownership.
John Brown ($6100)
There are some negative factors in the Buffalo/Washington showdown that would lead one towards NOT playing any part of this Bills passing game. The most notable one? The 37 Over/Under. Lowest, not just on this slate, but on the entire weekend. The Bills alone are only projected to score 23 points. However, that doesn’t mean the score can’t be 30-7 or maybe even 37-0 (wishful thinking, I know). Then again, that could be the defense doing their impression of the Patriots and mauling this Redskins “offense” and scoring all the points in the process. Which again leads us back to that pesky word, contrarian. Let’s live there for a moment, shall we? Brown has an 88% snap rate on the season. Over the last few weeks has targets of (5, BYE, 6, 8). So, you could say his targets have been going up. And we have yet to see that massive blow-up game from Brown that we’re accustomed to seeing. Brown hasn’t surpassed 20 DK points since week 1 (7-123-1 on 7 targets 28.3 DK points). This week he faces a terrible Washington defense that has given up 37.4 ppg to WWR-PPR via 4for4s (aFPA). Per PFF they are charged with the 6th worst graded pass rush, meaning Josh Allen should have plenty of time to look for his main man downfield as he repeatedly burns Josh Norman. Now is a good time to strike with Brown in tournaments as his $6100 price tag will have plenty of people looking for other options. That’s your queue. Strike that contrarian fire while it’s hot!
Travis Kelce ($6900)
Screw it, let’s just go full contrarian here. Why? Because it’s very likely that roster constructions will be focused on getting high priced RBs jammed in or going stars and scrubs with RB. Either way, once you factor in these possible combinations it will not leave much meat on the bone in terms of paying for a TE. The focus at that point will be fitting in at least one high-end receiver. Paying for Kelce will no doubt put you in the contrarian end of the spectrum because people want those safe floors with RB. Not to mention, on paper, Kelce’s matchup looks terrible. Per FO the Vikings are ranked #2 against tight ends and Evan Engram was the only one to have a “good” game against them with his 6-42 stat line. But we must remember that Travis Kelce is the best at his position. He’s matchup proof and even losing Mahomes did not curve his upside as last week with Matt Moore he produced a 4-63-1 stat line on eight targets. By the way, there was this one dude named Darren Waller who, in a perceived “tough matchup”, tore through this Vikings defense with a 13-134 stat line. Matchup proof, high price, low ownership. If you want to be different this is how you do it. ESPECIALLY in tournaments in a game with the potential to blow up.
Mitchel Trubisky ($5000)/ Allen Robinson ($6800)
- Everyone hates Trubisky. Even his coach. But, stacking him up with WR1 man-beast Allen Robinson might be a sneaky way to go against a Philly secondary that was destroyed by the last two alpha receivers they faced – Amari Cooper, 5-106 and Stefon Diggs, 7-167-3.
Matt Stafford ($6800)/ Kenny Golladay ($7700)
David Carr ($5500)/ Darren Waller ($6300)
- High team total (51) and two defenses that according to 4for4’s (aFPA) are ranked bottom ten against both QBs and WRs. This shapes up well for both the Raiders and Lions. High prices on Golladay and Waller should keep their ownership modest and people will be looking to stack these QBs with cheaper options. Which should keep these double stacks on the lower end of the spectrum.
Thanks for checking out my top DraftKings Week 9 GPP stacks and players! Be sure to come back all season and let me help you win money! Follow me @PacingPete on Twitter and check out all our DFS and redraft content at TFA!
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