With Thursday Night Football in the books, it’s looking like week four is shaping up to be another week of insane scoring. There were 69 total points scored between both teams and Goff had a career night with 465 yards and five touchdowns. If you didn’t play a Thursday lineup, you still have some great options for the weekend slates using these advantageous matchups.
Keenan Allen (LAC) vs. K’Waun Williams (SF)
Draft Kings $8300/Fan Duel $8100 – Projected @ 17.1 pts.
Keenan Allen has one of the best WR/CB matchups against K’Waun Williams this week with Richard Sherman out Sunday. He has the size to dominate Williams – five inches and 26 pounds more to throw around. He is also an elite receiver with a Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade of 88.6 versus Williams’ grade of 74.3. Allen also earns almost twice as many fantasy points per route (FP/R) more than Williams – .49 FP/R versus. .26 FP/R.
NOTE: Allen was listed as DNP on Thursday’s practice report with a knee injury, so check before the game to make sure he’s playing.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) vs. Tavon Young (BAL)
Draft Kings $7100/Fan Duel $7800 – Projected @ 16 pts.
If you put Antonio Brown’s 2018 stat sheet next to JuJu Smith-Schuster’s, it would be hard to say who is the better receiver (247Sports tried to) with 26/354/1 versus 27/356/1. This week both receivers have favorable matchups, but Smith-Schuster is less expensive… at least for now. Smith-Schuster outmatches Tavon Young this week – both in size (four inches and 30 pounds) and talent. PFF gives Smith-Schuster a grade of 77.9 versus Young’s grade of 56.6. Receivers facing Young are enjoying an 88.9% reception rate and 11.5 yards per reception, while QBs earn an average passer rating of 148.8 when throwing into his coverage (PFF).
NOTE: Smith-Schuster showed up as “Limited” on Thursday’s practice report with an abdominal injury, so make sure he’s in before the game starts.
Tyreek Hill (KC) vs. Bradley Roby (DEN)
Draft Kings $8100/Fan Duel $7800 – Projected @ 15.2 pts.
With Patrick Mahomes throwing for a league-best 13 TDs and no interceptions, the Chiefs have scored 38 or more points in each of their first three victories. (Chiefs Wire). Those stats make it easy to put faith in the KC receiving corps regardless of their matchups, including Chiefs “Cheetah” Tyreek Hill.
Hill tops the list as the fastest ball carrier this season by reaching a ridiculous 21.95 MPH on a 58-yard touchdown reception (Next Gen Stats). And Roby’s not likely to outrun him this week given his 4.39 40-yard dash time – much slower than Hill’s official Pro Day time of 4.25 secs (The Sports Xchange). PFF grades Hill at 87.3 and reports he earns .51 FP/R versus Roby’s grade of 72.1 and .32 FP/R. Hill is the more talented receiver in this matchup and is a good bet this week.
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) vs. Orlando Scandrick (KC)
Draft Kings $5500/Fan Duel $6500 – Projected @ 13.7 pts.
According to oddsmakers, Denver vs. Kansas City game should be a high scoring affair with 55 points of scoring (Vegasinsider.com). If there was such a thing as a “point per target” league, then Demaryius Thomas owners would be set. Although he is first in targets (26), his poor catching skills this season make him second in receptions (16) – just behind Emmanuel Sanders (PFF).
Demaryius Thomas dominates his matchup with an extra five inches and 33 pounds over cornerback Orlando Scandrick. And even with a poor drop grade, he is still the better talent. PFF grades Thomas at 73.1 and he earns .38 FP/R versus Scandrick’s PFF grade of 52.5 and .28 FP/G. I would typically be apprehensive starting someone with a 30.2 PFF drop grade, but he’s getting 40% of the WR targets and there should be plenty of passing in this game.
Keelan Cole (JAX) vs. Morris Claiborne (NYJ)
Draft Kings $5400/Fan Duel $6200– Projected @ 11.5 pts.
Last week was a sad showing for the Jaguars who only scored six points against an exploitable Titans’ secondary. But don’t count the Jags out just yet. In week two, Bortles threw for 377 yards and Keelan Cole made a catch that SB Nation says “might be one of the best ever.” He is currently Bortles’ top target Cole, receiving 35.2% of the total WR looks this season (PFF). Cole faces off against Morris Claiborne this week, who is two inches shorter and has a PFF grade off 59.3 versus Cole’s grade of 73.3. If Bortles was more consistent, I would expect Cole’s price tag to be a lot higher. Given the matchup, his high upside is a bet this week that could pay dividends.
Penny Pinching Picks
Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) vs. Tyler Patmon (JAX)
Draft Kings $4300/Fan Duel $6100 – Projected @ 11.5 pts.
Although Jacksonville is a tough matchup for any opposing offense, there is an opportunity to exploit the less than elite talent, especially at slot cornerback. Tyler Patmon was picked up by five different teams before signing with Jacksonville in 2017. There isn’t a ton of recent data to go on since he has only played 35 snaps this season, mostly in the last game and only 73 snaps total in 2017 (PFF).
Quincy Enunwa, who is earning a spectacular .5 FP/R this season, faces off against Patmon this week. Enunwa has received 46% of the WR targets this season (PFF), and it’s likely he’ll get a lot of looks from Darnold on Sunday.
Calvin Ridley (ATL) vs. Dre Kirkpatrick (CIN)
Draft Kings $4900/Fan Duel $6300 – Projected @ 10 pts.
Dre Kirkpatrick is calling this week’s matchup “personal,” but unfortunately for him, he is facing rookie Calvin Ridley who is on fire (7/146/3 in week 3 alone). Ridley is earning an average of .64 FP/R so far this season and his performance has earned him a grade of 78.6 from PFF. Kirkpatrick only earns .29 FP/G and has a PFF coverage grade of 64.5. Ridley is on TFA’s list of week 4 flex plays and my advice is to keep playing the hot hand.
Mike Williams (LAC) vs. Jimmie Ward (SF)
Draft Kings $4500/Fan Duel $6300 – Projected @ 9.8 pts.
Mike Williams owners are pretty with his 11/189/3 in the first three weeks. This week should be more of the same because it is one of the better matchups for KC this season. He is a big dude – he stands 5 inches taller than matchup Jimmie Ward who is only 5’11” and 193 pounds. Not only does Williams win in size, but he is a better player with a PFF grade of 63.8 vs. Ward’s grade of 45.3. Ward is giving up 2.25 yards per route, 85% of targets thrown in his coverage are caught and QBs are enjoying a 158.3 passer rating against Ward (PFF). Be sure to check your waivers in season-long leagues to see if he’s still available. The size and talent of Williams make him an easy DFS pick this week, and if Allen can’t go this week, he’s a must-start for the price.