Aaron Rodgers (Headliner)
Draftkings Price: $6400
I’m a little upset with myself for not writing up Rodgers last week…until the Packers can establish a reliable running game this guy is in play every week. One sneaky stat about Mr. Rodgers is his ability to play up in afternoon games. Take this for what it’s worth but in 34 afternoon games in his career, Rodgers has 25 wins and has his highest QB rating and averaging nearly 2.5 TDs per game, also his best compared to early and late games. Seattle visited Green Bay for the first time in the Pete Carroll era last year. Rodgers had his best game in his career against them with 249 yards and two scores.
Remember when everyone wanted to write-off Rodgers after the Week 6 loss to the Cowboys? He’s only had multiple scores in every game since then and last week was his first game without 25 points on DK. That is an insane number to lock in for the QB position. His price right now is $6400 probably because of the Questionable tag, but he’s not missing this game while Green Bay is fighting for the playoffs. Fade Rodgers at your own risk.
Ownership from Thursday Lock Contests on FantasyAces/FantasyDraft: 2 percent & 5 percent
Kirk Cousins ($6300) @ Philadelphia; Colin Kaepernick ($5800) vs. NYJ; Blake Bortles ($5000) vs. Minnesota
Draftkings Price: $6100
I’m sure by now you’ve heard a lot about Tyler Gabriel with Julio Jones set to be a mere decoy battling with turf toe. Taylor Gabriel is definitely in play with this news, but his ownership projection was at 11 percent for the Thursday contests. I expect his ownership to skyrocket to the high-teens, maybe even 20 percent come Sunday. That’s just way too high for me for a low-end wide receiver. Instead, I want to get you guys on Devonta Freeman. I think many people forget how good this guy can be…and is. He’s the seventh-ranked running back this season in many formats standard and PPR. He has nine total touchdowns on the season and he is his team’s leading rusher and second in targets inside the red zone. With Julio limited, I think it’s safe to bet on a heavy dosage of Freeman. He’s coming off back-to-back 20-point DK performances and is priced as the 10th highest-priced RB on DK.
Ownership from Thursday Lock Contests on FantasyAces/FantasyDraft: 11 percent & 15 percent
Draftkings Price: $5800
Cincinnati-Cleveland is one game I want exposure to this weekend, I’m just trying to figure out the best way to get. No, I do not want to play Dalton at QB. I just never find myself with the stomach to roster him, and he’ll of course, be “the play” this weekend. Instead, I’ll take the road less traveled here and try to predict game script. I really have a gut feeling this game stays close. Cleveland is fighting for their first win on the season and while I try to stay objective as much as possible, RGIII being back (my preseason darling pick) makes me really think Cleveland may have a shot to win.
IF this game can stay close, I love Hill in this match-up. He’s only had one 100-yard rushing game this year and that came against the Cleveland Browns. His red-zone usage is incredible, seeing as how he has 34 rushes inside the 20 and the next closest (active player) on the team is Dalton with three. His price saw a significant increase, you know, with him playing the Browns and all, but he makes for an interesting pivot off of Freeman and Doug Martin. In his career, he has four touchdowns in five games versus the Browns and has a remarkable 6.28 yard per carry average. Hill has a chance to be low owned yet put up top-five numbers among running backs for week 14. Load him up this week.
Ownership from Thursday Lock Contests on FantasyAces/FantasyDraft: 11 percent & 23 percent
Melvin Gordon ($7400) @ Carolina (with no Kuechly); Demarco Murray ($7000) vs. Denver; Lamar Miller ($5100) @ Indianapolis; Todd Gurley ($5000) vs. Atlanta
Odell Beckham Jr.
Draftkings Price: $8000
It’s not every week OBJ makes it into the Contrary-Ten yet here we are. His price is just too low. Way too low. Especially when you consider that he is going against the rival Dallas Cowboys. OBJ loves playing versus the Cowboys. In five career games versus Dallas, he has 27 catches for 332 yards and four touchdowns. What’s even more noteworthy is his best game against them came on Sunday Night at home. The game versus Dallas this week for the Giants? A Sunday night home game. I realize that may be a little of a stretch for some but embrace it. This guy doesn’t let down when the lights are on. This price is also the cheapest we’ve seen OBJ all year and all he’s done is catch a TD or get 100 yards receiving in seven out of his last 10 games. With not many options at WR this week worth paying for in my opinion, just lock OBJ in and watch your teams shoot up the leaderboards on Sunday night from his performance.
Ownership from Thursday Lock Contests on FantasyAces/FantasyDraft: 5 percent & 13 percent
Draftkings Price: $6800
I am really wary of playing Russell Wilson this week, but many people love him. Much like with Jeremy Hill, I’m going to use Baldwin (in places where in makes sense) to get my Russell Wilson exposure. As I wrote before, Baldwin still is the only receiver on the Seahawks to catch a TD from Wilson this season. I know what you’re thinking, but it’s true because Jimmy Graham is a tight end, not a receiver. Baldwin also is the only one on the team who scored in the Green Bay-Seattle match-up last year. He continues to have a great, consistent year despite the touchdowns not being there. He hasn’t scored a TD since his trifecta versus New England, but he’s caught 18 of 20 targets he’s seen in the past three weeks.
Ownership from Thursday Lock Contests on FantasyAces/FantasyDraft: 11 percent & 7 percent
Draftkings Price: $5500
It seems like all season it’s either been an “Adams game” or a “Nelson game” for the Green Bay Packers. This week I’m feeling a Davante Adams game. The weather is calling for much snow and I hope that gets people off the Packers passing game. I’ve talked at lengths about not missing out on Davante Adams therefore, he’s always going to be a player I highlight. Five of his eight touchdowns have come at Lambeau this year where he’s averaging 15 DK points per game. Since week 6, Adams hasn’t seen less than 6 targets in a game which is just insane usage. Seattle is going to do their best to stop Jordy Nelson and Adams should get most of his work away from Sherman. Someone for the Packers will put up a big week and for me, it comes down to who is the most affordable with the safest floor and highest upside. Hello, Adams.
Ownership from Thursday Lock Contests on FantasyAces/FantasyDraft: 2 percent & 3 percent
Draftkings Price: $5200
This is all about the “revenge narrative” for me. Yes, I’m fully aware that Chip Kelly is gone, it’s not the same system, yadda yadda. It doesn’t matter to DeSean. He caught four passes in his last two games he’s played in Philly. In 2014, he had 100 yards to go along with that touchdown. Everything really comes down to if Reed plays. Right now he’s questionable, and I would love this play 10x more if Reed were out. However, let’s not ignore how vulnerable the Eagles pass defense has been this year. They allow the second-most yards through the air and allow the most 20-yard completions on the season. Both of these stats should have DeSean Jackson owners salivating for season-long and for a guy that’s mid-tier priced on DK he’s fully in play. Jackson has been tagged a “boom-or-bust” receiver and in this match-up, I’m expecting him to boom his way to a 5-100-1 line.
Ownership from Thursday Lock Contests on FantasyAces/FantasyDraft: 7 percent & 2 percent
Will Fuller V
Draftkings Price: $4500
I’m not sure if this is a family & friends game for Fuller because he’s actually from Pennsylvania, but he’s returning to his land of his Alma Mater this week in Indianapolis. No one likes this passing game for Houston. Hell, I don’t like this passing game at all, but No. 2 and slot receivers can take advantage of the Colts secondary. Let’s take a look shall we:
Robbie Anderson last Monday: 4-61-1 for 16 DK points
Eli Rogers Week 12: 2-36 for 5.6 DK points
Tajae Share Week 11 and week 7: 4-68-1 for 15.8 DK points and 4-59 for 9.9 DK points
Davante Adams Week 9: 4-41-1 for 14.1 DK points
Tyreke Hill Week 8: 9-98-1 for 21.5 DK points
Week 7 Houston faced Indy and in that game, Will Fuller was absent due to injury. To get to Lev Bell and DJ this week you’ll need 1-2 players to punt. I think Fuller makes for one of those fine punts.
Ownership from Thursday Lock Contests on FantasyAces/FantasyDraft: <1 percent & <1 percent
Jordy Nelson ($6800) vs. Seattle; Tyrell Williams ($6100) @ Carolina; Allen Robinson ($5,000) vs. Minnesota
Draftkings Price: $4100
This week it comes down to Cameron Brate or Mike Evans. I don’t see how you don’t play one of the two. This game has the highest over/under on the slate and in a home game, I think we can trust the Buccaneers to put up points. The one question is will it be through the ground or through the air. Doug Martin is getting healthier each week and Jaquizz Rodgers set to take on more of a workload. Ever since Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins have been out of the mix, Brate has been fantasy gold. All of his touchdowns (6) have come from within the red zone and he’s seeing almost many targets as Evans has in recent weeks. He’s one of five Tight Ends on the season to have three 20-point outings on DK.
Ownership from Thursday Lock Contests on FantasyAces/FantasyDraft: 8 percent & 13 percent
Draftkings Price: $2700
Any pass catcher for Aaron Rodgers is always in play. Especially in a home game. Cook is used heavily in the passing game and while the numbers don’t look great, don’t be surprised if he gets you a TD. At just $200 above the minimum a TD from him already gives you value. If this game turns into a shootout (as many in the industry like Wilson to put up points) that’ll be even more opportunities for Cook to catch passes. One thing to keep in mind for Sunday is the one vulnerability of the Seahawks pass defense is versus the Tight End as they give up double-digit DK points to the Tight End. I by no means would ever say lock in Jared Cook, but if you’re creating lineups and need a low-priced, destined to be low-owned, punt play Cook is your guy.
Ownership from Thursday Lock Contests on FantasyAces/FantasyDraft: <1 percent & <1 percent
Zach Ertz ($4900) vs. Washington; Delanie Walker ($4400) vs. Denver; Coby Fleener ($3700) @ Tampa Bay
Main Draftkings Team Lineup
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Jeremy Hill, Devonta Freeman
WR: Davante Adams, Doug Baldwin, Marquise Lee
TE: Cameron Brate
Flex: Golden Tate
Total Salary: $50,000