Week 17 is always a crazy a week. The more you try to make sense of it, the more you will find yourself struggling to come up with a lineup you like. All I can say is this is the week where it’s OK to take off-the-wall fliers on people, but don’t completely fade the studs in great match-ups i.e. Aaron Rodgers, David Johnson, Travis Kelce, etc. If you are somehow able to find deep value plays you like, load up on the studs to give your team the highest floor possible. This will be a weird week. Just make sure you know as much as you can about every team’s situation – who needs to win, who’s going to be playing and who’s in a great match-up to exceed expectations on their price tag. And most importantly, good luck!
Draftkings Price: $5200
The quarterback position is just ugly for Sunday. There’s no way around that. One strategy I’ll be using is to pay down on the QB to get some dynamic playmakers at the RB and WR positions. If you aren’t spending $7000 on a QB you might as well pay for one of the guys in the $5000 range that should play four quarters. That leads me to the rookie Carson Wentz. He’ll be playing his final game of his rookie season at home versus divisional rival Dallas Cowboys. Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett have been on record saying they’ll play this game to win but will sit Dak, Dez, and Elliott. The Eagles are out of the playoffs, but a win versus Dallas who have had a fairy tale of a season would go a long way for Wentz’s rookie year and the fans of Philly. Wentz hasn’t had a multiple touchdown outing since week 11 at Seattle but I think he has one of his best games of the season on Sunday.
Draftkings Price: $5100
Listen, I’m not one to write up the Bengals in any capacity this year. They’ve been absolutely putrid on offense dealing with injuries to A.J. Green and Gio Bernard. They have nothing to play for in week 17, however, Andy Dalton, too, is facing a divisional opponent. $5100 is way too cheap for Dalton. To be honest, it’s kind of criminal. Nothing leads me to believe Dalton shouldn’t have 250 yards and two touchdowns. That would give him just under 20 DK points which would be about 4x value. I fully expect the Ravens to want to play well with it being Steve Smith’s last game and all, so if the Ravens are able to put up points that should force Dalton to drop back a ton. Ravens DB Jimmy Smith for the Ravens will miss the game as well. Fire up Dalton with confidence this week.
Matthew Stafford ($6000) vs. Green Bay; Landry Jones ($5000) @ Cleveland
Draftkings Price: $5900
Miami, unlike most teams playing this weekend, actually have something to play for. They’re currently in a battle for the 5th/6th seed in the AFC. That spot makes a big difference so they avoid their arch-nemesis New England Patriots. That being said, this intrigues me from the Dolphins side of the ball. They, ironically, are playing the Patriots in week 17 who will most likely sit a bunch of guys both on offense and defense. Ajayi is the No. 6 rusher in the NFL in terms of yardage and the No. 4 rusher in yards per carry. This will be a battle of the red zone: the Patriots are stingy in the red zone at home only allowing opponents TDs 47 percent of the time. That’s with their starters. If Belichick sits guys, one of the best RZ running backs in the league could find himself in a great spot.
Draftkings Price: $5200
The way that you attack this Broncos defense is on the ground and that is why I will have some exposure to Latavius Murray this week. The Raiders backfield is a little muddy – that was clear last week with Jalen Richard and Deandre Washington both scoring double-digit fantasy points and three total touchdowns. Still, Murray saw the team-high in carries and the last time he faced the Broncos he scored three times himself. Starters on the Denver defense are dropping out of this game, most notably T.J. Ward and Derek Wolfe. Those players are significant because they are Denver’s two best run defenders on the team. Without Derek Carr, the Raiders offense should run through Murray. I doubt Matt McGloin drops back more than 25 times in this game. At a mid-tier price tag, if Murray sees over 25 touches in this game he’ll be a steal at this price.
Draftkings Price: $4000
Look, Darren Sproles may be old, but this guy is dynamic out of the backfield and you’re getting a player at a cheap price tag that will be utilized in every offense facet of the game. He will line up in the backfield to rush and receive, and he’s a punt returner. There’s too much value here to overlook. Ryan Mathews has been placed on the IR. The only other guys the Eagles can turn to will be Byron Marshall and Terron Ward. These are not very encouraging options. This game will be a game the Eagles will have Wentz throw about 40 times and if Dallas is truly playing to win, Wentz will check down a ton to Sproles to avoid the Dallas pass rush. The Dallas starters on offense will sit so an intriguing double-dip option will be to pair Sproles with the Eagles defense.
Ty Montgomery ($5700) @ Detroit; Jacquizz Rodgers ($4900) vs. Carolina; Alex Collins ($4600) @ SF; Darren McFadden ($4300) @ Philadelphia
Draftkings Price: $8000
The Tampa Buccanneers aren’t officially out of the playoff race, but they’ll need a small miracle to make it. First, they’ll need a win versus Carolina. That starts with Mike Evans who’s been phenomenal for Jameis Winston all year. As I stated this week on the TFA pod, Evans has scored over 20 DK points against divisional opponents in all but his week 14 match-up versus New Orleans. The last time he faced Carolina, Evans saw 12 targets and scored 20 DK points. Evans high price tag will turn many away, but when you factor in his upside and then realize he’s facing the best possible match-up for a receiver, he really is too cheap in my opinion. I expect Evans to easily get 100 yards (that comes with a 3-point bonus) and get into the end zone more than once.
Draftkings Price: $6600
The favorable game to target this week is Green Bay-Detroit. It’ll be the chalk of all chalk. Still, you’ll want exposure to this game. The guy who I want on a majority of my teams is Golden Tate. This Packers secondary has been torched all year and they just gave up a monster 40+ DK outing to Adam freaking Thielen. Tate has been a lock for high usage since the Theo Riddick injury. Tate has four more targets per game and almost 2x in yardage. He has 9.3 targets over the past six weeks and the Packers are 31st in points allowed to the WR position. Tate is also averaging two more receptions per game in games Detroit isn’t favored. This is a great match-up for a WR that has been great after his slow start to the season.
Draftkings Price: $5700
I’ve been on the Davante Adams bandwagon all year and I’m not going to hop off now. The game everyone wants exposure to on Sunday is Green Bay-Detroit. Due to his recent performance, I expect Jordy Nelson to be one of the highest owned players in the game. This is what I like to refer to as chasing. I understand that Nelson is hands down the best receiver on the team and one of the best in the league. Detroit is playing for their first division win since 1993. This game means a lot to the team to win and they will use their effort to try and stop Jordy Nelson from getting going. Adams should be left alone and he gives you cheap exposure to the best QB option in DFS this week. Packers have the third most redzone attempts in the past six weeks and Adams has double-digit targets in the redzone the past six weeks.
Draftkings Price: $4000
Tyler Lockett is out for the season and the Seattle running game is up in the air. Baldwin is the guy who will be heavily targeted so Kearse makes for a perfect leverage play. Kearse just got his first touchdown of the season last week…once Lockett left the game. The nine targets he saw were also tied for his season-high. We talk a lot about the rapport that Wilson and Baldwin have, but the same can be said for Wilson-Kearse with fewer options Wilson is familiar with on Sunday. Throughout his career, Kearse has seen his statistics rise come December with his most targets, receptions and yards of his career in the last month of the year. In this game where I expect Wilson to dominate his match-up, Kearse makes for a great play at low cost.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6500) @ Tennessee; Steve Smith ($4900) @ Cincinnati; Chris Hogan ($3900) @ Miami; Dorial Green-Beckham ($3200) vs. Dallas; Paul Richardson ($3400) @ SF
Draftkings Price: $3800
This is the ultimate narrative game if there ever was one. In case you were unaware (aka living under a rock) Antonio Gates only needs two touchdowns to break Tony Gonzalez’s record. Even better, they’re playing the Kansas City Chiefs – the team Tony G played for. I know a lot of people think this is over exaggerating the situation by buying into a narrative. The Chiefs are stout versus the Tight End only allowing one score this season. Gates has had trouble consistently finding the end zone versus KC (only two in his last seven matchups) but he has had 60+ yards and over three catches in three of his last five games. I expect Rivers to target Gates a ton here, especially with the Chargers run game being nonexistent.
Jordan Reed ($5100) vs. New York Giants; C.J. Fiedorowicz ($3900) vs. Tennessee; Jared Cook ($3100) @ Detroit
Main Draftkings Team for the Mill Maker
QB – Carson Wentz
RBs – David Johnson, Darren Sproles
WRs – Mike Evans, Golden Tate, Davante Adams
TE(s) – Antonio Gates
Flex – Dorial Green-Beckham
D/STs – Seahawks