TFA Contrary-Ten – Week 3 DFS
It’s the week of the bounce back with the TFA Contrary-Ten in Week 3. Here are 10 players that I’m high on this week and trying to get exposure to across my tournament lineups. My core this week will be Murray-Hilton-Engram-Miami in Cash and Hunt-Hopkins-Hilton-Miami in GPPs. Let’s get to it!
$6,000 on Draftkings; $7,800 on Fanduel; $11,700 on FantasyDraft
NOBODY wants to play Russell Wilson this week after the horrid performance Seattle had on the road versus arguably the best defense in the league. Now I’ve seen many people, my boy Matty being one of them, talking about the Cowboys defense this week. They’ve looked damn good to start the year, but Wilson is cut from a different cloth. The knocks against Wilson this year come from the same things we hear every year. There’s no run game…the offensive line is horrible…he doesn’t have weapons. Wake up, people. Wilson hasn’t needed these things since Marshawn Lynch left and he’s still been finishing atop fantasy quarterbacks when it’s all said and done.
The Dallas pass defense is legit because they get pressure to the QB with their front-seven like clockwork. This is one of the main reasons I like Wilson this week. We could be in for a big rushing game from him and Dallas ranks 20th in Rush DVOA per Fantasy Outsiders. I think this is the week, in the home opener for Seattle, where Russell decides to take things into his own hands. That’s the Wilson I like playing in fantasy. He threw the ball 36 times versus the Bears and nearly had 300 passing yards to go along with three touchdowns in week 1. He’s still averaging close to 20 DK points despite the Seattle offense looking abysmal on the year.
Projected Ownership: 1.4 percent on Draftkings and 1.9 percent on Fanduel
$5,600 on Draftkings; $7,400 Fanduel
Listen, I was dead wrong about Andrew Luck this year. He’s looked good through his first two games and he’s played smarter, throwing the ball away instead of trying to “do too much” running around with the ball. The passing yards haven’t been much to talk about with Luck, but he is tied for fifth (with Kirk Cousins) for passing attempts on the season. The run game for Indianapolis is still in-flux and Marlon Mack has been ruled out for Week 3.
The matchup versus the Eagles on Sunday screams Luck breakout game. The way you can attack Philly defense is through the air and with the Eagles being more than touchdown favorites, Luck may be airing it out early and often. We love that for fantasy purposes. At only $5,600 (a $600 price decrease from Week 2), Luck could easily pay off this price tag. Luck is currently averaging 18.4 DK points per game and considering they just allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to carve them apart, I’m loving Luck this week in all formats.
Projected ownership: 2.4 percent on Draftkings and 1.6 percent on Fanduel
$7,600 on Draftkings; $8,000 Fanduel; $15,600 on FantasyDraft
BAE-quon Barkley is just an absolute freak. I enjoyed watching his college tape when we were studying players in the offseason and I’ve enjoyed watching him thus far on the season. He ripped the Cowboys defense apart last week on Sunday Night Football for 14 receptions and 80 yards on 16 targets. That’s David Johnson-esque numbers. The Houston defense has traditionally been able to limit pass-catchers out of the backfield but Barkley one-of-a-kind. The Giants will script dump-off and screen passes to bail Eli out against the pass rush. Let’s not forget James White had 4-31-1 line in the receiving game versus this team Week 1.
Not only did Barkley have a big game versus Dallas, but he also had a big game in a tougher matchup versus Jacksonville in Week 1. Only Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley have had over 20 DK points in each of their first two games. Barkley, as a rookie, is averaging 24.3 DK points. I won’t shy away from Barkley in tournaments this week.
Projected Ownership: 5.4 percent on Draftkings; 5.8 percent on Fanduel
$6,000 on Draftkings; $7,900 on Fanduel; $11,300 on FantasyDraft
I want exposure to this Kansas City-San Francisco game. Big players in fantasy scoring in both Week 1 vs. LAC and Week vs. PIT have come in games against Kansas City. I don’t think you can avoid this game which is now sitting at a game total of 55 projected points scored, the highest on the main slate. Most will try and jam in Mahomes with a pass catcher and probably run it back with Kittle. My suggestion, if you’re targeting this game, would be to pair Mahomes with Hunt in this matchup and just get all of the points from KC.
Hunt hasn’t been talked about much because he has yet to record a touchdown on the season and has been rarely used in the passing game thus far. I get it…my thing is when there are points to be had, the running back is always in play. Hunt has seen the seventh most carries on the year and is just outside the top-10 in rushing yards and yards after contact. Something soon will give for Hunt, and as I said on the DegeNation Podcast earlier this week, I do not want to miss out on Kareem Hunt “smash week.” There is no competition for carries in KC as Hunt as 34 of KC’s 52 attempts, and the next highest in Mahomes with 10.
Also, keep in mind price discrepancies if you are playing across multiple sites. Hunt is the 15th running back on the board on Draftkings and FantasyDraft, but the seventh running back on the board on Fanduel. A clear advantage to have on DK this Sunday.
Projected Ownership: 20.6 percent on Draftkings; 14.6 percent on Fanduel
$5,600 on Draftkings; $6,800 on Fanduel; $11,100 on FantasyDraft
I have been waiting for this week. The week where people really find out what Kenyan Drake is about, and he is about THAT life. One of my favorite running backs in the offseason to take in redraft, Drake showed last week scoring nearly 20 DK points on only 11 carries and four receptions. Yes, Gore has been getting close to 40 percent of the carries in the backfield, but Drake is doubling him up with carries inside the 20. The matchup for Drake is extremely juicy this week versus Oakland which is hard to ignore. Oakland is giving up the third most rushing yards on the season and the tenth most points on both Draftkings and Fanduel. Drake intrigues me especially on Draftkings and FantasyDraft as Miami isn’t using Gore in the passing game at all. Drake has seven receptions to Gore’s lone one on the year.
Projected ownership: 4.4 percent on Draftkings and 1.5 percent on Fanduel
$8,300 on Draftkings; $8,600 on Fanduel; $15,300 on FantasyDraft
Everyone and their mom will want to play Will Fuller V this week and rightfully so. When you see the numbers Fuller has had with Watson (21 catches, 395 yards and 8 touchdowns in five games) it makes too much sense to just pair him with Watson and watch your teams climb the leaderboards. But we forget about Hopkins who’s been just as good with Watson and has a higher upside. In 9 games, Hopkins has gone for 794 yards, 8 touchdowns on 59 receptions. Yes, touchdowns are king but in just four more games played, Hopkins has nearly double the yards as Fuller and 38 more receptions! Nuk is clearly the favored target in this offense, don’t get it twisted.
Also, when you dive into the matchup with Janoris Jenkins, PFF is giving Nuk the second-highest advantage on the week. Jenkins is the reason why the Giants are No. 26 in DVOA versus the opposing teams’ WR No. 1. Because of how badly people were burned last week paying up for a receiver, I expect the ownership on Hopkins to be well-lower than it should. Nuk has found his way into 1/2 Milli-Maker lineups this week.
Projected ownership: 15.5 percent on Draftkings and 14 percent on Fanduel
$6,700 on Draftkings; $7,500 on Fanduel; $12,600 on FantasyDraft
I want you all to know…it’s T.Y. Hilton week. I don’t claim many things, but when I have a feeling on Hilton, it usually comes to fruition. Feel free to tell me I’m wrong on Twitter Sunday afternoon if he doesn’t blow up – but it’s coming. Let’s start with his matchup against Jalen Mills. Mills is horrid and someone I have picked on in DFS the past couple of years. He has a 62.2 grade on PFF and got burned by Mike Evans last week for 10-83-1. Hilton, a PPR monster, could have that stat line by end of the third quarter. Hilton has a 26% share of the targets from Luck and he has played on the tenth-highest snaps of wide receivers on the year. The next highest player on the team for the Colts is Ryan Grant who is 42nd on snaps played.
Another thing to note is that Jack Doyle will miss this game. Many will lean to Eric Ebron, but I will caution people that with the Colts running a lot of 12-personnel with two tight ends on the field, they could change things up for Ebron’s role. The line I see from Hilton on Sunday is 9-130-2 and at his current price, you’ll be on cloud nine. You can thank me later.
Projected ownership: 11.8 percent on Draftkings and 7.8 percent on Fanduel
$5,200 on Draftkings; $6,100 on Fanduel; $9,900 on FantasyDraft
Randall Cobb is money when Rodgers is in the lineup. Devante Adams is the red zone threat but Cobb has carved out a role as a reliable slot receiver. He had 228 receptions out of slot entering the year, the second most at the receiver position. How do you attack this Washington defense? Through the slot. Cobb has the matchup per DVOA according to Fantasy Outsiders. They allowed 76 yards on seven catches to Larry Fitzgerald in Week 1 and 83 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions. While only running three fewer routes than Adams, Cobb leads the Packers in receiving yards and is tied with Adams for receptions with 13. Don’t get caught up in the $600 price increase despite his off-game in Week 2. Cobb is one of my favorite targets on the week at this price.
Projected ownership: 3.8 percent on Draftkings and 3.2 percent on Fanduel
$3,700 on Draftkings; $5,000 on Fanduel; $7,300 on FantasyDraft
I dare say Calvin Ridley is a free-square, but he’s way too cheap and makes a lot of sense to play this week. His projected matchup on Pro Football Focus earlier in the week was Ken Crawley. Crawley is the worst-rated cornerback in the Saints secondary and maybe should come as no surprise that New Orleans is considering benching him for P.J. Williams. Ridley saw an uptick in snap counts and routes run last week leading to his 4-64-1 stat line. Important to note, that Ridley’s touchdown came inside the red zone and Julio still has yet to convert any of his red zone targets for touchdowns. The Saints defense is ranked No. 30 in DVOA versus No. 1 receivers and No. 32 in DVOA versus No. 2 receivers. After this game on Sunday, I believe Ridley will be the clear-cut No. 2 in this passing offense. Feel free to plug in Ridley in spots where you cannot fit Julio in your GPP/tournament lineups to get exposure to the second highest game total on the main slate.
Projected ownership: 0.4 percent on Draftkings and 1.4 percent on Fanduel
$4,300 on Draftkings; $5,800 on Fanduel; $8,000 on FantasyDraft
The best part about playing Evan Engram is you really get to play a fourth or fifth wide receiver depending on what site you play on. Engram runs the third most routes amongst tight ends and he’s slowly becoming Eli Manning’s security blanket. Engram has nine receptions on 12 targets to start 2018. The Texans are allowing the eighth most yards and DK points to tight ends. Rob Gronkowski lit them up in Week 1 and while Engram isn’t the dominant force Gronk is, he has a similar role in the Giants offense. On Draftkings and FantasyDraft alike, Engram is just way too cheap in a game we all projected on the DegeNation Podcast to be a sneaky one for offense.
Projected ownership: 4.2 percent on Draftkings and 3.7 percent on Fanduel
*All projected ownership numbers for the TFA Contrary-Ten are from Fantasy Pros tools.
**Draftkings Milli-Maker Lineup Below: