Well, well…FINALLY a good week for the TFA Contrary-Ten in the week three addition were every player hit value outside of Tyler Lockett and Trey Burton. If you played Aaron Rodgers, DeMarco Murray, and/or T.Y. Hilton a big week for you came your way. This week is very difficult as Draftkings has adjusted their prices so some guys I would usually like are going to be extremely pricey due to their low price tags i.e. Carlos Hyde and Terrelle Pryor. Nevertheless, I bring you ten new plays for week four that are sure to make your lineups contrarian and diversify your plays among the masses. Without further ado, let’s dive into the week four edition of the TFA Contrary-Ten.
Draftkings Price: $6300
I can’t get over this price. The minimum price for a QB on Draftkings is $5000…so you’re telling me after one bad game (a trap game at that) Palmer becomes QB10? Once I saw Russell Wilson was priced above him I decided he had to be in my write up for the week. This is a prime bounce-back spot for him. Just look at the numbers: Palmer has 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions at home this season compared to zero touchdowns with four interceptions on the road. Small sample size with there having been only three games played? Maybe so, but I’m leaning toward this might be a trend. Another trend is Palmer throws the pigskin A LOT versus the Rams. Last season he threw the ball 86 times in their two games for over 600 yards and three scores. What you hope for here in the Rams run defense can keep David Johnson contained on runs forcing DJ to become another passing threat for Palmer. I love the Cardinals to get right in this game and this could get ugly. Get Palmer in your GPPs stacking him with one or two of his options.
Fantasy Aces projected ownership: 1 percent
Draftkings Price: $7000
So news dropped on Friday morning that Bill O’Brien will be taking over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator George Godsey. This comes after the Texans put up a solid goose-egg against the Patriots on the road. Ouch. This could be a sneaky good spot for Lamar Miller here. I think the general consensus is that the Texans can win big here against a Titans team that has yet to allow more than 16 points. I like Miller for two scenarios. The first being he is a dual-threat running back at a price people are likely to fade. Miller has seen 11 targets in the passing game to go along with three straight games of 20+ rushes. The second reason I want exposure to Miller is the game script is perfect for the Texans to be in a position to be up by two touchdowns. If that happens look for O’Brien to feed his workhorse running back with the DK points piling up. Don’t be fooled by his Fantasy Aces ownership. It’ll be lower on DK considering he’s the third most expensive back.
Fantasy Aces ownership: 21 percent
Draftkings Price: $6600
This is tough recommend for me given his match-up versus Seattle. Hear me out…Decker is out with his rotator cuff injury. Marshall is dealing with knee and foot ailments. That leaves Quincy Enuwa as the Jets primary healthy receiver. Matt Forte had a strong start to the year putting up 20.5 and 33.9 in back-to-back weeks. Sure his numbers were inflated by the three touchdowns all against the Bills. I still like Forte’s usage to be high against the Seahawks. Fitzpatrick had that awful six-interception game last week so the Jets might try and make things easier by drawing up plays for Forte in the passing game. Bilal Powell’s redzone usage is higher than Forte’s at this point but Forte will need to be relied upon for the Jets to have a chance in this game. Forte is seeing the fourth most carries at the running back position and this Seattle defense just allowed Carlos Hyde to gash them for 9-67-2.
Fantasy Aces ownership: 1 percent
Draftkings Price: $5200
Dwayne Washington…ha! I’m sorry, but I just can’t do it. If Dwayne Washington is the guy then so be it. On Draftkings, a full point PPR site, I want Riddick in this match-up versus Chicago. Riddick is averaging 11.7 DK points per reception. Many will look at the Bears allowing 121.7 yards to running backs through three games and instantly want to chase points with Washington at this $3800 price tag. Yes, chase. Washington is nothing more than a change-of-pace back. Riddick is currently seeing a snap rate over 65 percent with the Abdullah injury meaning they want this guy on the field. With all of the injuries to the Bears defense, I expect Riddick to eat on Sunday. Don’t be surprised if he see’s double-digit targets.
Fantasy Aces ownership: 8 percent
Draftkings Price: $4400
If you’re looking for a nice pivot off of super chalky Terrelle Pryor Sr. look no further than Isaiah Crowell. When you look into his numbers in 2016 it’s a shame, not more people are on him. Crowell is second in the league in rush yards behind LeGarrette Blount on 3o less touches. The guy is touting a whopping 6.1 yards per rush. Regardless of what you think you know about a split in Cleveland between Crowell and Duke Johnson, Crowell is the lead back seeing 10 more attempts on the ground. I will admit the targets Johnson garners can somewhat take away from Crowell. I’m of the mindset that this is a trap game for Washington. Crowell is going to see work in this game. The fact Washington just gave up 120 yards and two scores to the likes of Shane Vereen and Orleans Darkwa makes me like Crowell that much more.
Fantasy Aces ownership: 4 percent
Draftkings Price: $7200
How can I mention Carson Palmer without mentioning his favorite target in the offense, as dynamic as David Johnson is in the backfield, Fitzgerald seems to have found the fountain of youth. Scratch last game because, again, the Cardinals were #awful in a trap game. Fitzgerald still saw 12 targets and for the third week in a row, he has gone into double-digit targets. Not to mention Fitzgerald LOVES playing against the Rams. In his career, he has 16 touchdowns versus the Rams. Add on his average of 6 catches versus the same opponent and Fitzgerald finds himself in a nice spot. The other WRs for Palmer are a mess with Michael Floyd coming off of concussion protocol and John Brown still being worked into the offense off of injury. Fitzgerald is not only a safe play with a floor of about 11 Draftkings points, but he has the potential to be a top-5 fantasy receiver any week.
Fantasy Aces ownership: 7 percent
Draftkings Price: $6500
Get in now – this might be the lowest price you get Mike Evans at all year. I expected Mike Evans to be a heavily owned play considering the usage he’s seeing. Then I saw the Fantasy Aces ownership report from 2QBs.com and I was shocked. Three percent? Look I get Evans is facing the Broncos secondary. They’re a stout defense. Let’s go back to Evans usage, though. He’s seeing 37 targets, second in the league to only Antonio Brown. He has also seen as high as 34 percent of the target share for the Buccaneers this year. I expect similar to be the case this week.
Fantasy Aces projected ownership: 3 percent
Draftkings Price: $4500
Steve Smith is a player I think have targeted every week in DFS. I’m doing everything, not to buy-in to the Mike Wallace hype. Despite Wallace being the only receiver/tight end who has caught a touchdown from Flacco this season, Smith is seeing unbelievable usage. His 26 targets lead the team and are eight more than Wallace on the season. Smith has seen an increase in targets each week. He’s ready to pop off at any moment to prove he can still compete at a high level. Last year when the Ravens faced the Raiders in Oakland Smith put up a 10-150 line good for 25 Draftkings points…without a TD. I’m predicting a 7-110-1 line for Smith. Lock him in!
Fantasy Aces ownership: 7 percent
Draftkings Price: $4500
The tight ends in this price range will go overlooked. When the news about Dez Bryant dropped, I thought to myself, “Cole Beasley…Cole Beasley…Cole Beasley.” Yet the more I think about it I really like Witten in this spot. Dak has targeted Witten 20 times on the season. Witten has not seen over ten targets in a game since week 1, but seeing as how Dez is ruled out I expect that to change. As I said in the week 1 edition, Witten is the perfect security blanket. The 49ers will load up the box to keep Elliott contained so Dak should be able to pepper Witten in the middle of the field. With people paying up or paying down at tight end this week, Witten will go severely under-owned and can still return a big day with a line of 5-50-1.
Fantasy Aces ownership: 2 percent
Draftkings Price: $3900
Pitta makes the second player in the Ravens passing game that I want exposure, too. I was very high on the Ravens backfield coming into the season. I thought they would see the targets needed to be fantasy viable. Apparently, offensive coordinator Marc Trestman has decided to funnel targets to Pitta. It’s paying off even though Pitta has yet to score a touchdown. His lines in three games have been 3-39, 9-102, and 6-42. Back-to-back weeks he’s seen over 10 DK points. Pitta ranks top-5 among tight ends in targets, catches, and yards. He now gets a match-up versus Oakland and I firmly believe you should, “start your tight ends versus Oakland.” My goodness, they tried to give up 10 DK points to Jace Amaro last week! Pitta is in a good spot here to reach pay dirt and be a staple of a winning tournament lineup.
Fantasy Aces ownership: 3 percent