Here we are again for the TFA Contrary-Ten Week 6 Edition – Welcome Back. We’re back at the drawing board to try and get $$$ on Draftkings. Last week was redemption week here…it was a disaster. I will say that if you played Cam Meredith and Hunter Henry you were only seven spots off of taking down the Milli Maker tournament. Derek Carr was decent, too, putting up 26 points on 40 pass attempts. This week I’m highlighting mostly players we can welcome back to play either off of injury (Cam Newton) or bye week (Chiefs and Seahawks). It seems fellow colleague Anthony Pinzone thought the same this week and wrote a couple players I’m going to highlight in his weekly Studs and Duds article. These are players I try to find in good spots in DFS because people tend to “live in the moment” and forget about what players have done on the season with that week off. As always, I’m only mentioning players here that I, 1) think will be owned low enough to give you an advantage in tournament play and, 2) players that I will have exposure to in my tournament lineups. Good luck this week!
CAM! Listen, this guy in one of the best QBs in the league. He’s just been dealing with concussion protocol and forced us to have to watch Derek Anderson on Monday Night Football. People are off of Cam this week. He’s the highest-priced QB on the slate and coming off an injury. That alone will drop his ownership. He couldn’t have asked for a better match-up upon return. The Panthers are in desperate need of a win and they get to play in a dome game versus the Saints. The Saints are allowing over 400 yards of total offense per game this season! That’s egregious. If anyone can get the Panthers back on track it’s Cam. I expect the Panthers offense to bounce back mightily in a divisional game against the 31st ranked defense.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 14 percent
Draftkings Price: $6900
I’ll say it right now: Russell Wilson is not Paxton Lynch. Put it out of your mind what the Falcons defense was able to do last week in Denver. I would bet a lot that doesn’t happen in Seattle. This is a rough test for Matt Ryan and the Falcons for their second West Coast game in two weeks. Seattle is coming off of a bye which I think is going to take the allure of playing Wilson with his passing weapons. Heading into the bye though we saw Jimmy Graham put up back-to-back weeks of 100 yards. Doug Baldwin has also shown flashes this year with performances worth 24.2 and 33 points on Draftkings. Wilson appears to be at full health going into week 6 so Falcons beware. He is always capable of a 3-touchdown game and piling up points on the opponent. While many are leaning towards Christine Michael (a good play I will have some exposure to), I’ll look to go contrarian and pair Wilson and a pass catcher on some rosters this Sunday.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 16 percent
Draftkings Price: $6600
Nobody wants to play this guy. I’ve seen people try to move Miller this week for whatever they can get. Let’s pump the brakes for a second here, though. I understand the guy has yet to score a touchdown. That’s frustrating. He does have one of the highest usage rates for a running back on the year (enter usage). He gets a premiere match-up on Sunday Night Football vs. Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed over 100 yards rushing in four out of five weeks this season already. Oh, add on seven touchdowns to the running back position. What better way to win a tournament than to watch Lamar Miller EAT against this defense on Sunday Night. If for whatever reason, the Texans can’t get Lamar Miller a big game in this prime match-up there’s no hope.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 30 percent
Draftkings Price: $5100
Charles comes into the week priced at $5100 – the 17th highest-priced running back on Draftkings. Apparently, much has been forgotten about what kind of talent this guy can be when healthy. I think many will fade him for that very reason – his health. Earlier this week, Charles stated he was excited to get back into action and that “the training wheels would be off.” Then offensive coordinator Brad Childress came out and said they will “sprinkle him in.” Whatever that means. It really doesn’t matter to me. I’m looking to get Charles in my lineups at a price that is just way too cheap. He’s a great talent and even in a timeshare I think he’s worth a flier. The weather in Oakland is expected to be plagued with high winds and the Chiefs may have to rely on the run game more than planned. This might be the last week you can get Charles at this price. Fire him up in a spot where he can return 3x value on his salary. Dare I say, even return 4x value. It’s possible…
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 6 percent
Draftkings Price: $10000
That’s right, Antonio Brown has officially reached the 10k club on Draftkings. He’s the first player to reach this plateau on the season. Here’s why he’s a good play. The Dolphins defense is terrible. TERRIBLE. Need I remind you each cornerback they had out there versus Tennessee gave up a touchdown last Sunday. We also can’t forget that AJ Green went absolutely bananas against them with a 10-173-1 line. Some might call those “video game numbers.” I get his price puts you in a tough spot with roster construction, but you won’t be too concerned with that if he can get going with Big Ben. The entire receiving corps for Pittsburgh is littered with injuries. Coates has a broken index finger, Wheaton has already been ruled out, and Eli Rogers is returning from a toe injury. Brown should see no less than 10 targets this game and could be the highest scoring receiver of the weekend.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 6 percent
Draftkings Price: $6500
We talk a lot about quarterback home/road splits, but the same can be said for Doug Baldwin. Take a look at these numbers:
Home – 21 targets, 17 receptions, 256 yards, two touchdowns
Away – 10 targets, 7 receptions, 74 yards, zero touchdowns
Those are some significant splits. I’m already high on Russell Wilson this week so why not pair him with his best receiving threat in tournaments especially. The best thing about it is the pair only costs you $13,400 – only $3400 more than Antonio Brown’s price tag! There is talks about this game being windy and affecting the passing game. That would give me pause if Seattle was away, but being at home they know how to play in this environment. The Atlanta defense is going to have their hands full trying to stop Christine Michael and Jimmy Graham. Baldwin may be the forgotten hero.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 6 percent
Draftkings Price: $5200
I hate the fact that I’m writing up Mike Wallace, but sometimes the stars align for a particular player. Let’s go through some things, shall we? First, rookie cornerback Eli Apple and two safeties are currently on the Giants injury report. For the Ravens, Steve Smith Sr. has been ruled out. Baltimore also will play its first game with newly promoted offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. There’s a lot going on here. I do expect Mornhinweg to want to establish some sort of a running game, but Flacco is going to throw. Who’s the familiar face for him to throw to? Mike Wallace. As much as it pains, this guy could be a really sneaky play. Last week he saw 11 targets as Flacco’s primary receiver. That makes 39 total targets on the year to go along with his three touchdowns. If you’re paying down for receiver, Wallace has to be in consideration.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 5 percent
Draftkings Price: $4300
Want exposure to the Saints-Panthers game this Sunday, but don’t want to pay the high prices for the Saints top receivers? That’s where Michael Thomas comes in. Yes, he’s a rookie. A rookie that’s been quietly making a name for himself while Willie Snead has been out. It started on Monday Night in week 3 versus Atlanta. He saw a team-high 11 targets from Brees and caught a touchdown. The next week versus San Diego: 9 targets and caught a touchdown. He’s slowly becoming one of Brees’ favorite targets. It’s no secret Brees likes to spread the wealth to his receivers. With all the changes to the Panthers secondary, all of the Saints pass catchers are in play this weekend. I’m leaning to pay up for AB so Thomas is definitely on my radar for WR2.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 9 percent
Draftkings Price: $6700
Gronkowski was an honorable mention last week for me – well he’s in the article this week. I don’t own this guy in any season-long league. He’s just too frustrating to monitor on a week-by-week basis. When he’s healthy, he’s the best Tight End in the league bar none. Injuries have kept him quiet most of the year putting him off the radar for many fantasy players, especially DFS ones. However, like I mentioned above with AB, the Patriots, too, have injury concerns. Blount, Edelman, and Bennett are all on the injury report this week. I’m sure they will all play, but they’ve all been limited in practice this week. The stats don’t show it last week, but Gronk played on over 80 percent of the snaps last week. I talked about how the Brady-Edelman bromance would be rekindled last week. Well, this is the week for the Brady-Gronk bromance to light up the scoreboard.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 2 percent
Draftkings Price: $5000
Hopefully, Alex Smith doesn’t revert back to his old ways. Last year the fantasy community pleaded for Kelce to get more targets. This year we’re seeing just that. Kelce has 29 targets on the season which is third among Tight Ends. I’m hoping people are off of him with Kelce returning off a bye. You HAVE to target Tight Ends vs Oakland. I talk about it every week. This team is just bad defending the middle of the field. Not to mention Oakland is giving up over 330 yards per game through the air. I still like Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs, but the next option I’m looking to get on my lineups to have exposure to that game is Kelce.
Fantasy Aces ownership from Thursday: 7 percent