Week one is finally here, and we can get down to the business of DFS. Welcome to my first article for @FF_Authority. My sole focus is to help you identify the best team stacks that push you ahead in tournaments and identify a few GPP darts as well. Primarily on DraftKings. I’ll also be referencing various tools I use from sites such as 4for4.com, ProFootballFocus.com, and Establishtherun.com. Sites that have some of the best tools and insight in the industry. My overall goal here is to help you come to your own logical conclusion. To trust yourself and develop your own process. Because at the end of the day we make the final decisions and we must hold ourselves accountable. It’s the only way we’re going to learn and improve our game. So, lets plant our flag, not waiver on convictions and start winning some money! Let’s take a look at some of the top Draftkings Week 1 GPP plays!
Nick Foles ($5300), Leonard Fournette ($6100), Dede Westbrook ($4800)
High game total, up in pace potential and the same old bad defense. GIVE ME ALL THE JAGS! Nick Foles has arguably one of the best matchups on the board. According to 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA), the Chiefs defense was bottom three against QB, RBs and WR. This all sets up well for a team that will be severely under-owned for several reasons. Leonard Fournette is getting most of the attention and for good reason. TJ Yeldon is no longer around to steal carries or targets. Which means Fournette should see an increase in passing down work. Then there is the fact the Chiefs defense didn’t do nearly enough to upgrade the secondary. Oh, yea, the Jags also hired John DeFilippo at OC, the man responsible for helping Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs terrorize secondaries, in the first half of last season before being fired for calling too many, wait for it, pass plays (queue the eye roll). FIRE UP DEDE WESTBROOK! This team is still going to run. But now they have a much better quarterback in Nick Foles who will allow this offense to not only balance out but gives them the possibility of a high ceiling. Exactly, what you want from a low priced, under-owned QB in a great spot. Want to bring it back? Add on all world TE Travis Kelce (Do I really need to sell him to you?) and watch that game stack shoot you up the leader board.
Russell Wilson ($6300), Chris Carson ($5700), Tyler Lockett ($6000)
“Wait, aren’t Chris Carson and Tyler Lockett going to be chalk?”. Not necessarily. Early projections at ETR have Lockett as the lone Seahawk who’s going to garner 30%+ ownership with Carson not far behind. But, add in Russ at extremely low ownership and you have a stack that will separate itself from the field. The Seahawks are in what we call “a smash spot”. They are currently 10pt home favorites, face a middling defense that didn’t improve and has a new head coach. Look for them to feed Chris Carson early and often. Back in August coach Pete Carroll told reporters “Chris may have the best hands on the team” and then added “He’ll catch the ball more this year, for sure. That’s something we want to expand his role, which he’s capable of doing.”. Look for Carroll to unleash Carson where his volume will most certainly be up, Lockett to destroy journeyman slot corner B.W. Webb and Wilson to shred the Bengals secondary while, possibly, adding a rushing TD in the process. One final thing to add, you might see a lot of Carson/Seahawks D correlation stacks. Not saying it’s a bad play. It’s solid. But that defense is far from their “Legion of Boom” days. Add in newest acquisition Jadeveon Clowney and that shine looks even better. But, they’re still a defense that’s going to struggle to hold opposing offenses back. This leads us to WR Tyler Boyd. There’s no A.J. Green and he’s going to get fed when the Bengals fall behind. Bringing your stack back with Boyd will most certainly put you ahead in GPPs.
More GPP Targets:
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5800)
Jimmy G looked terrible in the preseason; I get it. But, don’t expect Shanahan to hold his QB back in a game with a 51pt implied game total and facing a Bruce Arians offense that will look to impose its will through the air. The Niners will have to throw to keep up. It’s a good thing Tampa Bay’s defense is just as bad, if not worse, than the Niners. If you’re going to stack, I’d pair him with Dante Pettis (5400) or Kittle (6600) and run it back with Mike Evans (7900).
Mark Ingram ($5100)
The Dolphins are in full tank mode. Traded a lot of their parts for picks and Ryan Fitzpatrick is their Quarterback. It’s all bad. In come the Ravens as -6.5pt road favorites and they run the ball, a lot. Fire the cannons on Mark Ingram! Despite touches going to Gus Edwards and rookie Justice Hill this should be Ingram’s backfield, for at least this week. Look to stack Ingram with the Ravens D. YES, Ingram on DraftKings is in play!
Tevin Coleman ($5000)
When the Niners only kept three RBs on the roster it was a good sign that Coleman and Breida would get a healthy amount of volume despite a split. Both will catch passes and be heavily utilized in the offense. I lean towards Coleman, in the season opener, as he is the more expensive piece (more people might be inclined to go with Breida at 4400) and beyond Pettis and Kittle its hard to gauge where the other targets will go. As I mentioned earlier, give me Niners players with much of the ownership in this game being focused on the Tampa Bay side.
Dante Pettis ($5400)
See JimmyG above
Kenny Golladay ($6300)
Let’s get this out of the way quick. The Lions really want to be a run-first team. They really want to use multiple backs to win games while also keeping Kerryon Johnson healthy for December and January (CAN SOMEONE PLEASE TELL MATT PATRICIA YOU HAVE TO WIN GAMES FIRST BEFORE THINKING OF THE PLAYOFFS?! OK THANKS BYE!). In any other situation, this is a cash gameplay. But, it is not. Because Patricia and new OC Darrell Bevell will limit Staffords passing volume. So, why in the world am I even recommending Golladay? Ok, stay with me, Patrick Peterson is suspended right now. After that, it’s a who’s who at DB in Arizona. This defense is still bad. So, most of Stafford targets should go to Golladay. Marvin Jones will get targets. But, if anyone is going to benefit in the passing game it’ll be Golladay. We’re betting on efficiency here and its completely in Golladay’s corner.
I mentioned Kelce earlier, no need to do it again. Just know he’s going to be chalk that you’re going to eat and make sure to do it with a Jags stack in a large field GPP because that will have very minimal ownership.
TE is going to be very tricky this week because I can see a scenario where most will be on Kelce or OJ Howard or George Kittle. High ownership will start with them. You’re either playing it safe or taking a shot. Which is why I’m going to be contrarian with one guy:
Delanie Walker ($3500)
Walker is back off injury. The Titans draw a very good Browns team where everyone is waiting to see their offense explode. I like the idea of taking a shot on Walker. He has chemistry with Mariota. Also, the Browns are going to get up big in this game. Their DL is stout and is going to wreck the Titans OL. Translation, the Titans who love to run the ball won’t be able to do much for Derrick Henry. That’s where Walker comes. Playing from behind with a QB who trusts him. It’s a dart throw for sure. But, one that could pay dividends for a team lacking any standout receiving option.