Welcome back for my top DraftKings week 4 GPP plays! Week 4 is here! Let’s keep this train rolling. My sole focus is to help you identify the best team stacks that push you ahead in tournaments. I’ll select a few POTENTIALLY low-owned GPP plays as well. Primarily on DraftKings. I’ll also be referencing various tools I use from sites such as 4for4.com, ProFootballFocus.com, Football Outsiders and Establishtherun.com. These sites have some of the best tools and insight in the industry. My overall goal here is to help you come to your own logical conclusion. To trust yourself and develop your own process. Because at the end of the day, you make the final decisions. You must hold yourselves accountable. It’s the only way we’re going to learn and improve our game. So, let’s plant our flag, not waiver on convictions and start winning some money! Let’s look at some of the top DraftKings Week 4 stacks and GPP plays!
Kyle Allen ($5200), Christian McCaffery ($8800), Curtis Samuel ($4600)
Current projections at ETR have Kyle Allen’s ownership at sub 5%. Which, I’ll be honest, is shocking. The guy had a monster game filling in for Cam Newton. 19-26, 261yds and 4td. Yes, I know it was against the Cardinals. But the Texans aren’t much better on defense. They allow 21.7 (aFPA) to QBs. Fifth worst. They also allow 48.8 (aFPA) to WRs. Fourth Worst. Via Football Outsiders they rank bottom twelve against their opponents top 2 wideouts. You can certainly fire up DJ Moore. But I like Samuels as a key piece to any Carolina stack. Also, even though CMC will command high ownership you can differentiate yourself with this double stack and watch them shoot you up the leaderboard. You could even run it back with NUK or Will Fuller (More on him later). Game stacking would be a wise choice as this game currently sits at a 47.5 game total and it would not shock me to see this game go over. Volume, usage, do I really need to say anything more about CMC that hasn’t already been said? No. Good. PLAY.THIS.STACK.WIN.ALL.THE.MONIES.
Top Draftkings Week 4 GPP Plays
Jared Goff ($6300)
Back home and playing as (-9) home favorites Jared Goff is in a prime “blow up” spot against a Tampa Bay defense that showed leaks in their pass defense against Giants rookie Daniel Jones. #DannyDimes finished with a crazy impressive stat line of 23-36 for 336yds and 2 TDs and then ran for another 28yds and 2TDs. That was a rookie. Now they face the Rams who sport one of the best WR trio’s in the league and a Quarterback who could do even more damage. The Panthers give up the ninth most points to QBs 20.5 (aFPA). With the Bucs ranked second in rush DVOA it will put the ball more in Goff’s hands. Paving the way for a potential ceiling game for Goff and his bff Cooper Kupp (STACKING BUDDIES). Also, seeing that Goff is the fifth-highest priced QB on the slate you could make the argument that he makes for a fantastic GPP play. His current ownership projection of 12%, via ETR, makes him an even more attractive option.
Kerryon Johnson ($5400)
There’s going to be a lot of people who are going to lean on the passing games when it comes to the Lions/Chiefs matchup. Mainly because Patrick Mahomes has yet to regress. His running through teams these first few weeks make Ivan Drago look like an amateur. Which in turn has made opposing offenses play beyond their means. The Lions love to play at a slow place. They want to #establishtherun. They won’t have that luxury this weekend. They’re going to have to keep up at a high pace. But if they want to hit the Chiefs main weakness it’s going to be on the ground. According to FO the Chiefs are ranked dead last in rush DVOA and they’re giving up 27.9 (aFPA). This sets up well for Kerryon Johnson who FINALLY got bell-cow type of usage after they cut CJ Anderson, getting up to 21 touches. And even though he finished with a stat line of 20-36-1 it was encouraging to see Matt Patricia give his lead back more work. I’d expect that to continue against a defense that yielded YPC of 5.08 (Leonard Fournette), 8.25 (Josh Jacobs) and 6.44 (Mark Ingram)
Will Fuller ($4500)
The Texans offense has taken us on a roller coast ride these first few weeks of the season. Opening the season scoring 28, 13 and 27 points consecutively. The 13, in my opinion, was an outlier. The Jags defense played up to the Texans and what resulted was a slow-paced game with little meat on the bone for anyone. In this week come the Carolina Panthers and their now “high flying” offense. Via Pat Thorman of ETR “the Panthers have the third-quickest seconds-per-snap rate and their games average the league’s most combined plays”. This plays favorably into the overall pace of this game and should open more opportunities for Houston’s skill players. Most notably, Will Fuller, who should see positive TD regression coming. The last two games the Panthers have given up numbers of 8-121-1 and 10-59 to Chris Godwin and Christian Kirk. Those opponents #2 WR. Through three-game Fuller has been in on 95% of his teams snap and targets have held steady in back to back games (7). Despite his slow start, he’s been involved and as evident in previous seasons he’s known for taking one or two bombs to the house. That’s what makes Fuller such a fantastic GPP play. According to ETR’s ownership projections Fuller is hovering just above 10%. ANNNNND he’s popping in Josh Hermsmeyer’s BUY LOW MODEL”. Not popping as much as Mike Evans did last week (Respect, bro). But a player popping always makes me take a second look. He’s a fantastic CHEAP WR3 in GPPs.
Darren Waller ($5200)
Another interesting week lies ahead at TE as its looking more and more like the field is going to lean on Will Dissly ($3600) and his “locked-in” spot at Arizona. I typically avoid the term “locked-in” when it comes to DFS. Simply because there’s so much variance that being a “lock” can seriously backfire. I’m still jilted from years ago (YES, YEARS) on “all-in stone-cold lock” Michael Pineda in GPPs. Only to see him owned in GPPs at 60% and watch all of us fall down the leader board after watching him get blown up in the first inning and subsequently removed from the game. THE.TILT.IS.REAL. But I digress. I’m in no way trying to scare you off Dissly. Just beware of the chalk in tournaments.
That brings me to this week’s pivot. Darren Waller. His price is on the rise and considering his usage and production you could say he’s underpriced. He’s in on 95% of his teams snap and gets 16.8% of the target snap rate. In short, he’s David Carr’s #1 guy in Oakland. This week he gets to face an Indy defense that struggles to defend TEs. They’re fifth-worst allowing 15.9pts (aFPA) and (via Football Outsiders) rank twenty-first against Tight Ends. Now is the time to buy before Waller’s price lives in the Kittle/Ertz price range (6.5-7k). As noted by ETR’s Pat Thorman in his SNAP AND PACE article games that involve the Raiders average the league fewest combined plays (118.7). Translation, the Raiders will not score many points this weekend. But, when they do, it’ll be with Darren Waller. And you’ll get him at much lower ownership than Will Dissly.
Thank you for checking out my top Draftkings week 4 GPP plays article! For more information and who to play and fade this week be sure to jump into our free slack channel!
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