Welcome back to Week 12 of Cash Game Cornerstones. Hopefully, everyone had a great Thanksgiving filled with great food, time with family and of course football.
Jameis Winston $6,000
After last weeks mid-game benching of Ryan Fitzpatrick it’s hard to go back to another Buccaneers QB but the upside is certainly there. If combined Winston and Fitzpatrick’s weekly DK scoring outputs it would look like this:
From a match-up perspective, the 49ers rank 21st in pass defense DVOA per Football Outsiders which certainly doesn’t scare me off of Winston.
The Bucs have a massive 29 point team total so Vegas certainly agrees. The 49ers defense doesn’t generate a ton of turnovers and their defense allows 4 red zone trips per game which is the most in the NFL which should help the Bucs sudden lack of efficiency in that area.
Matt Breida $5,700
Full disclosure here: I’m a Matt Breida fanboy. I love his talent and his fit in Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme is perfect.
The Bucs rank 27th in rush defense DVOA and have given up 17 TD’s to running backs this season, including 3 to Sa’Quan Barkley last week.
Breida has finally gotten himself healthy and had his best game of the season with 132 yards and two TD’s against the Giants before the 49ers week 11 bye.
The 49ers offensive line has played well this season and ranks 10th in football outsiders adjusted line yards.
Given this games shootout potential, I really like having some exposure to a talent like Breida.
D.J. Moore $4,600
I’m not overly in love with any of the wide receivers on the main slate. They just all seem appropriately priced. Given the injury to Devin Funchess, D.J. Moore will be stepping into the lead wide receiver role in Carolina.
Moore ran a 4.42 40 at the combine and possesses the kind of run after the catch ability that gives the bigger Seattle cornerbacks trouble.
Last week with Funchess in the game Moore had his best output of the season posting a 7/157/1 on 8 targets. Here’s a look at his NextGen Stats route chart from last week.
The Panthers have a solid 25.5 implied team total and at home should be able to move the ball effectively against a Seattle team that’s traveling to the east coast for a 1p.m. eastern time start.
Moore isn’t a stone cold lock to smash value again this week due to the presence of fellow pass-catching threats Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey but at just $4,600 the risk is minimal.
Cameron Brate $3,600
Brate steps in for the injured O.J. Howard as the Bucs number one tight end. I don’t really have much analysis on Brate aside from the fact that he’s going to be on the field a ton for the pass-heaviest offense in the league and only costs $3,600.
Brate had his most productive season in 2016 before the arrival of Howard, posting 57 catches and 8 touchdowns.
At 6’5″ Brate has the big body to be a red zone threat for a Tampa team that moves the ball effectively but has recently struggled to score touchdowns.
There’s a lot of noise in the DVOA numbers against tight ends but the 49ers rank 22nd against the position so there’s nothing to scare me off of Brate.
At projected high ownership at minimal costs, I think locking in Brate as a cash game cornerstone makes a ton of sense this week.
Baltimore Ravens $3,300
It seems like forever ago that this Ravens defense posted 11 sacks against the Titans. Since then the Ravens have faced a string of good offensive lines and above average quarterbacks. Posting just 3 sacks and zero turnovers over their last 4 games this is a get right spot for the Ravens defense.
The lowly Raiders just pulled off an improbable road win against the Cardinals but now have travel to the Northeast to play Baltimore. This just seems like a total letdown spot for the Raiders.
The Raiders offense lacks big-play threats and just lost Brandon LaFell (can’t believe I just wrote that) who had been playing well for them of late.
The Raiders offensive line ranks a lowly 25th in pass protection per football outsiders and may now have to protect a little longer due to the lack of weapons on the outside. Projected for a measly 15.75 points it’s hard for me to imagine the Ravens defense failing in this spot.
At quarterback, I’ll likely be deciding between the aforementioned Winston, Lamar Jackson, and Andrew Luck. The rushing upside Jackson provides is just so unique and gives him a ridiculous floor/ceiling combination. Luck is just a lock for 20+ points right now but is a little more expensive than the other two.
If healthy Melvin Gordon would be the week’s top play but with hamstring and knee injuries he is reportedly a true game-time decision. I’d definitely leave some roster flexibility to potentially swap to Austin Eckler if MG3 is ruled out.
At wideout I like Manny Sanders a bit against the Steelers. He ranks 7th in Josh Hermsmeyer’s predictive Air Yards Buy Low Model.
The logical GPP pivot off of Brate is to the super explosive David Njoku who is just $200 more on DK.
Thanks for reading everyone!