TFA Contrary-Ten — Week 3 DFS
Back at it again for the Week 3 DFS main slate for Sunday! Took a small hiatus last week, only to come back to one of the best slates every year with many “thinking” they know how teams are going to perform. There’s a lot we can take away from the first two weeks, for sure, but remember last year when the Dolphins started 3-0 on the season? Yeah, that was fun. This week I’m going back-to-the-well on players I’ve been high on this year in hopes to gain leverage on the field. But don’t let these plays fool you, I will much exposure to the Chiefs-Ravens game and Patriots defense. The below plays of the Contrary-Ten represent guys I like as contrarian game-stack pieces or pieces I could see myself going to in order to differentiate lineups. Without further ado, let’s dive into the Week 3 DFS Contrary-Ten!
Kyler Murray (Price: $5800 on Draftkings, $7200 on FanDuel)
I’ve been waiting to play Murray in a good match-up, and here we are for the Week 3 DFS main slate. This game features two top-5 pace teams and we should see a ton of scoring. It all revolves around Murray, and while that may be surprising to say with David Johnson in the backfield, the Cardinals are passing on about 75 percent of their plays. Murray just passed for 349 yards against the Ravens – we like that. The way teams have been attacking the Panthers secondary is through the slot, and that’s been Murray’s bread and butter early in the season (Fitzgerald and Kirk have combined for 23-363-1 through two games).
Projected Ownership: 7.7 percent on DK, 9.8 percent on FD
Kirk Cousins (Price: $5100 on Draftkings,$7200 on FanDuel)
The Vikings have over 26 implied points projected for Sunday. I believe Cook and the Vikings defense are extremely viable here and will have exposure to both. But much like Murray, I’ve been waiting on being able to use Cousins in tournament lines in a favorable match-up. First off, the Raiders pass defense has been exploitable to start the season with 27th ranked DVOA and 31st in yards allowed through the air. Cousins has struggled early this season, but he only threw the ball 10 times in week 1 when Cook ran ramped vs Atlanta, and last week he tripled the number of pass attempts but was on the road in Lambeau – a tough place to play.
He returns home to play in front of a favorable crowd, in a positive match-up, and the best thing about rolling out Cousins is you know the players to stack him with; Cook, Thielen, Diggs. He’s a large-field (10,000+ entry) play only, but if Cousins gets the touchdowns over Cook he’s a low-owned 25-point play this week.
Projected Ownership: 0.4 percent on DK, 0.2 percent on FD
Christian McCaffrey (Price: $8700 on Draftkings; $8900 on FanDuel)
My favorite game of the week to stack is the Arizona-Carolina game. The pace, as I stated when discussing Murray, cannot be ignored. And with most wanting to pay to get either Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon on most DFS sites, I’ll gladly take McCaffrey. Miss me with, “well Kyle Allen is the QB now and the offense should regress…” Carolina has looked putrid to start the season, and the lone bright spot has been CMac who plays on nearly EVERY snap.
McCaffrey ran the most routes of any RB through the first two weeks (Fournette passed him on Thursday) and I can’t see any game script here where CMac isn’t getting 20-25 touches as a floor. His upside is slate breaking as we saw in week 1 and the fact he has the backup QB in there makes him intriguing, especially in single-entry tournaments on DK as most people will look to fade the Carolina situation.
Projected Ownership: 32.2 percent on DK, 42.5 percent on FD
Joe Mixon (Price: $5500 on Draftkings, $6500 on FanDuel)
Mixon has been atrocious to start the season. He even admitted it himself earlier this week saying his performance has been terrible. So why is he making his way into the article? To be contrarian just to be contrarian?? Not exactly.
Even with his porous play and the struggling offensive line play, Mixon was on the injury report most of last week which I believe affected his play with limited practice. He was able to get work in this week earlier on, and Cincinnati will need Mixon to show out if they want to have a chance in this game. The Buffalo defense is not one I look to attack but they allowed:
Week 1 – Le’Veon Bell – 17-60 on the ground, 6-31-1 receiving for 23.2 DK points, 20.2 FD points
Week 2 – Saquon Barkley – 18-107-1 on the ground, 3-28 through the air for 25.5 DK points, 21 FD points
Mixon makes for a better play on Draftkings, with his four target/game average. His talent has not reflected his performance and with this cheap of a price tag this week, I’m loving Mixon as a play in large-field tournaments.
Projected Ownership: 0.5 percent on DK and FD
Sammy Watkins (Price: $6800 on Draftkings; $7100 on FanDuel)
Davante Adams was originally going to be my play here, and then I saw Sammy Watkins’ ownership this week. Until we see someone stop them, the Chiefs are forever in play. It’s just a matter of who you’re able to pinpoint. Week 1, I was heavy on Tyreek Hill, low-owned, lowest priced Sammy Watkins pops. Week 2 I loved Hardman and Kelce, and essentially un-owned and low price Demarcus Robinson went ham. So, if history repeats itself, it will most likely be Hardman to pop this week. But my money is on Watkins. He has the highest target share on the team currently and is the most dynamic wideout Mahomes will have versus this tough Ravens secondary. I wouldn’t run out any lines without at least one pass catcher on KC this week or you might be better off just burning money for fun.
Projected Ownership: 9.3 percent on DK, 11.3 percent on FD
Kenny Golladay (Price: $6600 on Draftkings, $7000 on FanDuel)
The Eagles secondary is an absolute train wreck right now, and the prices for the Detroit pass catchers are mighty appealing this week for our Week 3 DFS builds. I’ll be heavily leaning on Golladay over the rest. He’ll most likely draw CB Sidney Jones in coverage according to Pro Football Focus and he has a four-inch, 30-lb advantage over his opponent. This secondary has been burned by outside weapons (see: Julio and Calvin in week 2 combined stat line of 13-211-3 or the 9-161-1 to McLaurin/Richardson in Washington). Golladay has been Stafford’s favorite target with a 23 percent target share and 19 targets to his name. He’s also been the only wide receiver for the Lions targeted in the red zone (though Detroit as seen limited work in the red zone, worth mentioning to monitor if it becomes a trend).
Projected Ownership: 13.3 percent on DK, 9.5 percent on FD
Stefon Diggs (Price: $6000 on Draftkings, $6700 on FanDuel)
Stefon Diggs has slate breaking upside this week, you heard it here first (maybe). Diggs is a guy I was all over going into the season, loving where he was going relative to ADP and injuries and poor QB play have left him off of most people’s radar. But not mine, especially for this week. Diggs is going against a banged-up Raiders secondary that has allowed the most passing yards and allowing the third-most touchdowns thus far. Diggs is getting the deep field targets for Minnesota and his target share is right there with Thielen’s. I will have exposure to Thielen through Cousins stacks, but as a one-off play l like Diggs much more at a reduced price tag.
Projected Ownership: 9.1 percent on DK, 7.6 percent on FD
Will Fuller V (Price: $4900 on Draftkings, $6000 on FanDuel)
Boom-0r-bust. That’s pretty much what you get when you roll out Will Fuller on your lineups. You can by no means consider Fuller for any formats outside of tournaments, namely large-field tournaments, in my opinion. But he does have upside galore. Coming into the 2019 season, Will Fuller had either 100 yards or a touchdown in eight out of 11 games together. Absolutely insane numbers. While he hasn’t reached that plateau yet, he has a decent chance to do that against a Chargers defense that’s given up six pass plays for 20+ yards.
Projected Ownership: 4.7 percent on DK, 0.6 percent on FD
Zach Ertz (Price: $5700 on Draftkings; $6900 on FanDuel)
Philadelphia pass-catchers may end up being the key to the week 3 DFS main slate. It’s almost a given, barring any crazy news tonight/Sunday morning, that Nelson Agholor will be top-3 in ownership at wide receiver on both Draftkings and FanDuel. Ertz was a topic of discussion on the DegeNation Pod as Ertz is bound to fall off the radar with Andrews/Kelce in the bonanza extravaganza. He has run the most routes of all tight ends and with the injuries, Philly has on offense right now, Carson Wentz may be forced to lean on Ertz even more than he already has this year. Ertz leads all pass catchers in red-zone targets this year, raising his ceiling dramatically. If only DeSean Jackson is ruled out for the Eagles on Sunday, my exposure to Ertz will increase 10-fold in tournaments.
Projected Ownership: 15.6 percent on DK, 37.6 percent on FD
Evan Engram (Price: $5200 on Draftkings; $6400 on FanDuel)
Even with Sterling Shephard expected back on Sunday, I love Engram this week with his new starter Daniel Jones. Engram’s target share has been insane (28.2 – third among all TEs), and he has as much upside as any tight end on the slate. This is a new QB so we don’t want to give in to “take-lock” here. We cannot the fact that Engram is out there to make plays, running the second-most routes on the team. Engram is top-3 in basically every receiving category at his position. He comes in as the fourth-highest tight end on Draftkings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel and will most certainly fly under the radar. Feel free to lock him in on any site, in any format.
Projected Ownership: 6.7 percent on DK, 4.4 percent on FD
*All projected ownership numbers for the Week 3 DFS TFA Contrary-Ten are from Fantasy Pros DFS tools.
**Week 3 DFS Draftkings Milli-Maker Lineup Below:
QB: Kyler Murray
WR1: Kenny Golladay
WR3: Christian Kirk
FLEX: Damiere Byrd
Follow Ryan Williams on Twitter – @RyanAlexander_W and listen to him and Kevin Steele on the DFS DegeNation Pod released every week that covers a positional breakdown for every DFS main slate of the 2019 season!