TFA Contrary-Ten — Week 4 DFS
We’re almost a quarter of the way through the 2019 NFL season! It’s time to really build these bankrolls and we can do it this week on the main slate for week 4 DFS. There are numerous ways to attack this slate which makes for playing tournaments this week pretty fun, at least initially in building lineups. Condensed ownership is what we look for to take advantage of the field, so let’s get into the 10 plays on the Contrary-Ten for the week 4 DFS main slates on Draftkings and Fanduel.
Jared Goff (Price: $6300 on Draftkings, $7700 on FanDuel)
Don’t let Draftkings fool you by saying “Tampa Bay ranks 8th against QBs.” We know now the week 2 win was tainted with Cam Newton dealing with a foot issue and in week 1 they had a home matchup versus a Jimmy Garoppolo that looked lost of offense returning back from injury in 2018. The TB defense was just exposed by rookie Daniel Jones in his FIRST career start. This game shapes up well for Jared Goff to break out as the front seven for the Bucs has been great to start the season. With Sean McVay in his headset, Goff should be able to pick this team apart with weapons of Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods all in great spots. I’m projecting Goff for his first 300 yard game of the season and three touchdowns to go along with it. We can’t trust Gurley at this point who just doesn’t look right. Nothing is more telling than Goff has 15 red zone passing attempts to Gurley’s six rushing attempts.
Projected Ownership: 1.5 percent on DK, 1.4 percent on FD
Case Keenum (Price: $4900 on Draftkings, $7200 on FanDuel)
This is strictly a Draftkings play only. You won’t need to go here on FanDuel where he’s priced as the QB16 (higher than Matthew Stafford!), but on Draftkings you get him at an extreme discount of $4900. To reach 5x from the position, Keenum will just have to throw for 275 and two touchdowns and you’re sitting pretty in tournaments. You can honestly roll him in cash with his favorite target Terry McLaurin (if he plays) and use less than 20 percent of your salary on Draftkings. I like Chris Thompson and Paul Richardson, too if you’re full stacking this game. Vegas has the over/under currently set at 49. A short week for Washington does scare me from going too heavy on this play, but the matchup is pristine and the price is right.
Projected Ownership: 1.8 percent on DK, 0.1 percent on FD
Mark Ingram (Price: $6600 on Draftkings, $7800 FanDuel)
Running back is ugly this week and while I will be looking to play Austin Ekeler (and possibly Christian McCaffrey) in CASH and 50/50s, I’m looking to the mid-range for RBs in tournament lineups. The Browns defense is best against the run, but they are dealing with numerous injuries to the secondary. That could potentially lead to opportunities for Ingram to get red zone scoring. He is, after all, the league leader in RZ rushing touchdowns with five. I’ve seen many people trying to attack this game from the air and I don’t mind it. I just like other QBs around Lamar Jackson’s price and other tight ends around Mark Andrews. On a week lacking for running back upside, I’m taking mispriced Ingram to hopefully lock up 20+ points on my tournament lines.
Projected Ownership: 10.4 percent on DK, 6.9 percent on FD
James White (Price: $4900 on Draftkings, $6200 on FanDuel)
I only ever play James White on Draftkings or FantasyDraft where you’re getting a point per reception. This is an easy play for me and I talked about playing White on the @degeNationPod this week. He’s only $4900 at an ugly position. Rex Burkhead and Julian Edelman are both on the injury reports. Sony Michel has been a dud this season so far, and even if we were thinking of considering him, this Buffalo defense is stout versus the run. I think people will overlook James White here since he didn’t play last week, and I actually love him more if Rex Burkhead suits up in this game. White also has pretty solid history versus Buffalo with a two-touchdown game in 2015 and a 10-catch game last season. It’s very hard to predict usage with the Patriots as Tom Brady doesn’t lock on just one person, but if injuries keep weapons out, look for him to lean on White a lot here.
Projected Ownership: 9.0 percent on DK, 1.8 percent on FD
Julio Jones (Price: $7800 on Draftkings, $8500)
Never fade Julio. He’s been showing why so far to start the NFL season. It’s great to see him not only getting a touchdown in each game thus far, but also seeing three of those touchdowns come inside the 20. For those who are unaware, Jones’ red-zone usage (or lack thereof) has been a topic of conversation in the industry over the past two years. It’s clear that Jones is Matt Ryan’s favorite target seeing 12 more targets than the next closest option. His target share is well above his peers, too, so we shouldn’t shy away from Jones this week who gets to against Malcolm Butler in coverage. Butler has already allowed three touchdowns this year, the second-most behind Josh Norman. I love getting Julio at reduced ownership while many will look to jam in Keenan Allen and Mike Evans (and Chris Godwin) after their monster week 3 lines.
Projected Ownership: 28.2 percent on DK, 33.7 percent on FD
Larry Fitzgerald (Price: $5600 on Draftkings, $5900 FanDuel)
/ Christian Kirk (Price: $5100 on Draftkings, $5900 FanDuel)
I don’t think I’ve ever done this in this article, but there’s a first for everything. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk rank in the top-13 in targets and receptions. You would think there was no one else for Kyler Murray to throw to at the Wide Receiver position. Wait a moment, that may be true…Michael Crabtree is gone. Damiere Byrd is dealing with a hamstring injury. KeeSean Johnson has only seen six total targets since his 10 in week 1. Of course, we cannot forget about David Johnson who is bound to soak up some of the total target share. But this is a situation we should really be paying attention to. The reason the players haven’t “popped” recently is because of the lack of touchdowns. Most may play one or the other, but playing both on Draftkings this week sets up well where you’re only using 20 percent of your salary to get a floor of 30 points.
W1: Larry Fitzgerald – 8-113 -1 (28.3 DK points) // Christian Kirk – 4-32 (1o.4 DK points, rushed for 12 yards, fumble recovery) = 38.7 DK points
W2: Larry Fitzgerald – 5-104 (18.4 DK points) // Christian Kirk – 6-114 (20.4 DK points) = 38.8 DK points
W3: Larry Fitzgerald – 5-36-1 (14.6 DK points) // Christian Kirk – 10-59 (15.9 DK points) = 30.5 DK points
I will have numerous teams on the week 4 DFS main slate in 20-max lineups where I play both Fitz and Kirk on Draftkings at their prices in a game that’s expected to reach 48 points.
Projected Ownership: (Fitz) 27.9 percent on DK, 32.2 percent on FD // (Kirk) 14.7 percent on DK, 9.1 percent on FD
DK Metcalf (Price: $4800 on Draftkings, $6100 FanDuel)
At the time of writing this article (11 AM CT on Saturday 9/28), I’m not sure how much exposure I will have to the chalky Russell Wilson. He’s been so great to start the season, and I will continue to give Kevin Steele (@fantasywrath13) credit for saying to target to the Arizona secondary through these first couple weeks. It’s paid off handsomely. Regardless, if I choose to go up to Pat Mahomes or pay for Jared Goff instead, I want exposure to the Seattle passing game. Look, I like Tyler Lockett. I will have exposure. But DK Metcalf was someone I wrote down on Sunday watching the game versus New Orleans. He only grabbed two of six targets, but Seattle definitely has plays designed to get Metcalf open. He has more air yards and a higher average depth of target than Lockett. Here are the lines of the WR2 versus Arizona:
W1: Marvin Jones/Danny Amendola (combined) – 11-160-1
W2: Miles Boykin – 1-11-0
W3: Curtis Samuel – 5-53-1
The big game from Metcalf is incoming, and you won’t want to be a week too late.
Projected Ownership: 10.4 percent on DK, 1.8 percent on FD
Paul Richardson (Price: $3700 on Draftkings, $4700)
Let’s not get too crazy. If we get Terry McLaurin 100 healthy for Sunday, he’s the play in cash, tournaments, head-to-heads, and everything in between. But we don’t want to put all of our eggs in one basket. Even if he’s a go, McLaurin could still be hobbled as he hasn’t practiced full all week. Enter Paul Richardson who was once a DFS darling in Seattle. He’s $700 over the minimum price for WR on DraftKings and only $200 over the minimum on FanDuel. With the amount of points the Giants are giving up to the position (most on Draftkings and second-most on FanDuel), hedging here with Richardson lineups makes a ton of sense.
Projected Ownership: 1.6 percent on DK, 0.2 percent on FD
Travis Kelce (Price: $7200 on Draftkings, $7600 on FanDuel)
Travis Kelce is not a tight end, at least not in a traditional sense, and once you can get past that, you ignore everything else. Kelce always goes under-owned every week due to the expensive price tag he carries. I’m hoping most will be looking at what the Lions did to stop Zach Ertz and think that can be duplicated here. Kelce is matchup proof and he’s still one of the favorite targets of Mahomes, with him being second in target share and total targets. His five red-zone targets rank in the top-10 and he’s bound to put up a big score if he can find the end zone. I would most likely only play Kelce with Mahomes due to the price tag and hoping all or most of the touchdowns come his way. He’s an incredible play on FanDuel where touchdowns carry rosters and many WR options in play in the 5K-6K range.
Projected Ownership: 17 percent on DK, 40.7 percent on FD
*All projected ownership numbers for the Week 4 DFS TFA Contrary-Ten are from Fantasy Pros DFS tools.
**Week 4 DFS Draftkings $300K Dash Lineup ($40 entry) Below:
QB: Russell Wilson
RB1: Mark Ingram
RB2: Austin Ekeler
WR1: Julio Jones
WR2: Mecole Hardman
WR3: Paul Richardson
FLEX: Larry Fitzgerald
Follow Ryan Williams on Twitter – @RyanAlexander_W and listen to him and Kevin Steele on the DFS DegeNation Pod released every week that covers a positional breakdown for every DFS main slate of the 2019 season!