TFA Contrary-Ten – Last minute advice for Week 5 DFS
The Contrary-Ten was designed to talk about pivot plays for tournaments in good spots. For week 5 DFS, we know there will be a lot of ownership in Dallas-Green Bay, Le’Veon Bell and Devante Parker. Below are 10 guys I will have exposure to in my week 5 lineups on both Draftkings and Fanduel. Let’s get to it!
Ben Roethlisberger (Price: $6400 on Draftkings; $7900 on Fanduel)
I can see myself not playing on the road at all, and playing him in every home matchup this year. Look, the Steelers offense has looked rough and luckily Le’Veon Bell is hitting his stride because he’s the only bright spot in this offense right now. But how can we discuss Ben’s home/road splits and then not play him in home spots? People are scared of this Jacksonville secondary/defense and yes they have looked good, but this Steelers offense has yet to reach its full potential. The Steelers have the highest implied total outside of the Dallas vs. Green Bay game. This is strictly a tournament play and even with Le’Veon Bell in a good spot, I think the way to get contrarian is to play Big Ben with him in hopes Bell gets a touchdown via the pass and Brown can get loose for one. Play him at your own risk, but I will have at least 25-30 percent Ben in tourneys.
Projected ownership: 0.3 percent on Draftkings; 0.4 percent on Fanduel
Deshone Kizer (Price: $5500 on Draftkings; $6900 on Fanduel)
I’m not really that big of a Kizer fan, but he’s the only Quarterback under $6000 on Draftkings and under $7000 on Fanduel I feel comfortable playing. I know my co-host of the DFS DegeNation Pod Kevin Steele is once again on Ricardo Louis, but Kizer I would almost play “naked” or with one of my favorite running backs on the slate I will discuss later. He does have 20-point upside despite being turnover prone with his rushing ability. In both games he’s had a rushing touchdown, Kizer has gotten over 19 points on both DK and Fanduel. If you’re looking for a QB to give you salary relief to pay up for at the skill positions, Kizer is your man.
Projected ownership: 0.9 percent on Draftkings; 0.7 percent on Fanduel
Honorable Mention(s): Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson (FD) & Matthew Stafford
Melvin Gordon (Price: $6000 on Draftkings; $7100 on Fanduel)
How is Melvin Gordon this cheap this week? He’s facing a Giants defense that ranks 28th in the league. They let Jacquizz Rodgers rush for 83 yards, Philadelphia’s backfield ran for a total of 193 yards and Abdullah also had 86 yards against them. Gordon made waves in the media complaining about his lack of touches in Week 4 only rushing for 10 times and getting one catch on three targets. Gordon should see a bulk of the work this week on the ground and could possibly even see in uptick in pass-catching work with Tyrell Williams dealing with an injury. Anytime I can get RBs that are ridiculously underpriced I jump at the opportunity.
Projected ownership: 8.3 percent on Draftkings; 7.9 percent on Fanduel
DeMarco Murray (Price: $5400 on Draftkings; $6400 on Fanduel)
Another Running Back who is criminally underpriced for Week 5 DFS across multiple sites is Demarco Murray. The Dolphins are actually a team you attack via throwing the football, but with Matt Cassel under center, I don’t see how the Titans don’t just give Murray and possibly Henry 40+ carries. We’ve seen what Murray can do in limited work breaking off a 75-yard touchdown versus Seattle. While he hasn’t seen over 14 carries a game, I think much has to do with the blowouts like last week and then his ailing hamstring which seems to be fully healed. I’m more than content paying down on these cheap RBs who should see heavy workloads and pay up at Wide Receiver this week.
Projected ownership: 6.8 percent on Draftkings; 9.3 percent on Fanduel
Duke Johnson (Price: $4900 on Draftkings; $6000 on Fanduel)
Hello, Duke Johnson, Jr. Welcome to the TFA Contrary-Ten. I didn’t have enough exposure to Johnson the past two weeks and while I might be chasing his upside here I think he’s great per dollar play on Draftkings. You’re essentially getting the Browns No. 1 receiver for $4900 on DK – think about that. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards and is basically being treated like Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson from a pass-catching standpoint. The Browns have yet to come out and say he’s the lead back with Isaiah Crowell lurking around but Crowell hasn’t been getting it down on the ground with his measly 2.9 yards per rush attempt. In comparison, Johnson has only gotten 10 carries, but has a 5.7 y/a and has two rushing touchdowns on the year. Johnson has been too good for me to fade and he’s a great guy to throw into your flex on Draftkings.
Projected ownership: 7.6 percent on Draftkings; 2.3 percent on Fanduel
Honorable Mention(s): Carlos Hyde, Marshawn Lynch, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry & Elijah McGuire
Antonio Brown (Price: $8400 on Draftkings; $8800 on Fanduel)
The squeaky wheel gets the grease. Antonio Brown should smash this week after being in the media all week, not in a positive light. If you go back and watch the film, Roethlisberger tried to get Brown a touchdown after throwing a temper-tantrum on the field, just because. He has since come out and apologized for his behavior and said he was glad Roethlisberger called him out. Let’s not forget – this is the best WR in football. Brown is $1400 cheaper than Le’Veon Bell which is crazy to me. I love playing Antonio at home seeing as how 35 of his 51 career touchdowns has come in Pittsburgh.
Projected ownership: 20.1 percent on Draftkings; 10.5 percent on Fanduel
AJ Green (Price: $8200 on Draftkings; $8300 on Fanduel)
I don’t think there’s been a week so far that I haven’t played AJ Green. He’s slowly becoming one of my favorite receivers to watch on a weekly basis as he’s been the only consistent cog in this Bengals offense. With Bill Lazer at OC, this offense has seemed to found its groove. This matchup might not seem favorable, but EJ Gaines likely to miss will help substantially. Buffalo will trot out Tre’Davious White on Green but White has been their No. 2 corner and I’m willing to give Green the nod there. He had double-digit fantasy days versus Baltimore’s Jimmy Smith and Houston’s Jonathan Joseph. Green has too big of a market share of the targets in Cincinnati right now to ignore. I’m going to find a way to fit him into a good number of my lineups for Week 5 DFS on both Draftkings and Fanduel.
Projected ownership: 10.7 percent on Draftkings; 9.4 percent on Fanduel
Golden Tate (Price: $6300 on Draftkings; $6700 on Fanduel)
When no one wants to play Golden Tate, I want to be heavier than the field. Golden Tate is a near lock for me on Draftkings for two reasons. For one, he’s at home. Tate has been incredible at home to start the year with a total line of 17 catches, 165 yards, and a touchdown. Tate has 21.6 points-per-game at home compared to 6.3 on the road. The second reason is this Carolina defense (low key) has been bad versus No. 1 WRs. While they did hold Cooks on NE to a pedestrian day, they were burned by Michael Thomas and Pierre Garcon this year. Captain Munnerlyn is Tate’s projected matchup according to Pro Football Focus and Munnerlyn hasn’t been challenged much thus far on the year. Tate should have his way with him from the slot position and at $6300 he might be my favorite play of the week.
Projected ownership: 18.3 percent on Draftkings; 8.7 percent on Fanduel
Brice Butler (Price: $3500 on Draftkings; $4700 on Fanduel)
I get it – it’s Dez Bryant week. I will not take the time to talk anyone off of Dez this week. On Fanduel, I love Dez and will probably have 60 percent exposure to him as he’s a TD king. But anyone who’s been following/watching the Cowboys this year has seen that Dak Prescott loves this Butler kid. He only gets a couple targets a game but they are always deep down the field. At this price, he only needs one to reach value and we’ve seen his upside in the Arizona game on Monday Night Football where he had 17 DK points and could have been way more if there wasn’t a overturn on a 75-yard touchdown. This Green Bay secondary is bad so really for me, any one of these Dallas pass catchers is in play. On teams where I have Dak on Fanduel, I’m playing Butler and Dez. Wheels up for Dallas I guess…
Projected ownership: N/A on Draftkings and Fanduel
Honorable mention(s): Deandre Hopkins (FD), Keenan Allen, TY Hilton, Martavis Bryant, John Brown, Terrence Williams & Jaron Brown
Evan Engram (Price: $4000 on Draftkings; $5400 on Fanduel)
The Tight End position is ugly for Week 5 DFS which means I just want to play guys who are consistently getting volume. The Giants have been throwing a ton this year based on the game script of being behind and the running game is non-existent. That has led to Engram being third on the team in catches and is fourth in the league among Tight Ends in receptions and sixth in yards. He’s coming off a game where he saw 11 targets and has at least seven targets in three straight games.
Projected ownership: 10.3 percent on Draftkings; 12.3 percent on Fanduel
Honorable mention(s): Travis Kelce (FD), Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook, Hunter Henry/Antonio Gates