Welcome back for my week 5 top DraftKings GPP plays! Week 4 is here! Let’s keep this train rolling. My sole focus is to help you identify the best team stacks that push you ahead in tournaments. I’ll select a few POTENTIALLY low-owned GPP plays as well. Primarily on DraftKings. I’ll also be referencing various tools I use from sites such as 4for4.com, ProFootballFocus.com, Football Outsiders and Establishtherun.com. These sites have some of the best tools and insights into the industry. My overall goal here is to help you come to your own logical conclusion. To trust yourself and develop your own process. Because at the end of the day, you make the final decisions. You must hold yourselves accountable. It’s the only way we’re going to learn and improve our game. So, let’s plant our flag, not waiver on convictions and start winning some money! Let’s look at some of the top DraftKings Week 5 stacks and GPP plays!
Deshaun Watson ($6700), DeAndre Hopkins ($7800), Will Fuller ($4500)
I went to the Texans back in week 2. My Watson/Nuk/Duke stack blew up in my face as the Jags decided to play defense. Killing my contrarian approach quicker than a camp counselor at Camp Crystal Lake (Oh yea, Happy Month of Halloween everyone!). However, just like some dumb teenager who’s been warned “Don’t go in there” I’m going right back to the Texans well (Did I just play myself?). The Falcons’ defense is getting worse. Really bad. After keeping QB combo Carson Wentz and Josh McCown in check, back in week 2, they gave up a combined 537 yards and 5TDs to Jacoby Brissett and some dude named Marcus Mariota. Per PFF Atlanta is graded with a top 5 pass rush. Meaning Watson will be running, a lot. But this should only serve to benefit Watson whose top pass catchers, Nuk and Fuller get tasty matchups against a Falcons secondary that are ranked bottom 2 against the opposing #1 and #2 WRs, per Football Outsider. While there will be much talk of bounce backs to Nuk and Fuller I don’t expect this offense to be wildly popular. Due in part to Watson being the second-highest priced QB on the slate. Because of that, I can see more Watson/Nuk, Watson/Fuller stacks in play. POP, POP, POP, POP, POP! Oh, snap! Both Texans WRs are popping in Josh Hermsmeyers Buy low air-yards model for this week. STACK THIS TRIO. WATCH THEM EAT. WIN ALL THE MONIES.
Let’s GET CRAZY STACK!
Kirk Cousins ($5300), Adam Thielen ($6700), Stefon Diggs ($6200)
Yea, this is totally crazy. Even though the Giants are dreadful against the pass. We’re praying for rational coaching here and HOPING that Danny Dimes forces this team to have to play up in pace. Because all the Vikings want to do is RUN, RUN, RUN, RUN, RUN. Is it possible that the Vikings pass game hits their ceiling? Of course. Are they more likely to just run the ball the entire game? Yep. But what if they passed more? Hey, a man can dream, right?
Lamar Jackson ($7100)
The Highest priced QB on the slate doesn’t usually entice people. Mainly because when it comes to the Quarterback position many DFS players like to pay down. It’s a sound strategy and one that does often work. It allows you to pay up for that highly coveted RB and WR. But just because that does work doesn’t mean we should run from it and only pay down at QB. We aren’t Laurie Strode running from Michael Myers. We’re Dr. Loomis warning everyone what’s coming. And it’s not the Boogeyman. It’s the only QB to score over 20ftps per game this year. Lamar Jackson is looking to bounce back after that stunning loss to the Cleveland Browns (raise your hand if you saw the Brownies hanging 40 on the Ravens, IN Baltimore). No, you didn’t. Stop lying. But I digress. This should also help keep Jackson’s ownership low. According to ETR’s current projection Jackson is hovering around 12% ownership. One thing that will give people pause is the Steelers “tightening” up their defense in the last two weeks. They faced Andy Dalton and Jimmy G. The Bengals were atrocious and the Niners turned the ball over five times and barely won. The teams the Steelers faced before that? Russell Wilson, 29/35 for 300yds and 3tds. Tom Brady 24/36 for 341yds and 3tds. Via PFF the Steelers are graded as the second-best pass rush in the league. This will give Jackson opportunity to scramble out of the pocket with potential for a big day on the ground. I’m firmly placing my bets on the Steelers defense turning back into a pumpkin and Jackson going nuclear.
David Montgomery ($5200)
HAPPY KHALIL MACK REVENGE WEEK EVERYONE! Seriously, that’s going to be the big story leading up to the Raiders beatdow..er..I mean a matchup with the Bears in London. But, while the defense will be the focus I think you can find value in rookie back David Montgomery. On the surface, it looks like a tough matchup. Via FO the Raiders rank ninth against the rush and twelfth against pass-catching backs. The only back to have success against them was man-beast Dalvin Cook (16-110-1 on the ground and 4-33 out of the backfield). But when you compare his usage to that of the Raiders’ previous opponents you find that he was the only true bell-cow they faced. You could argue Marlon Mack snap count clearly superseded Nyheim Hines. But that game script completely flipped when the Raiders went up by two touchdowns early forcing the Colts into a more aggressive offensive approach. Hines targets, 6. Mack targets, 0. Montgomery, on the other hand, has not only seen his usage but also his touches go up. WK’s 2-4, 44%, 67%, 69%. Touch counts, WK’s 2-4, 19, 16, 24. Its too early to tell how negative game script will affect these numbers going forward. But, for DFS purposes all you need to know is who the Bears are facing this week. Mack and the defense will no doubt terrorize the Raiders well into their nightmares, like a pissed off Freddy Kruger. Which will create an opportunity for the Bears rookie RB. The stats may show a scary matchup for Montgomery, “But, what do we say to the god of death?” “Not today.” Fire up Montgomery with confidence.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6000)
The focus of the Cardinals/Bengals matchup is Cincy’s offense and the potential scoring bonanza it brings. Auden Tate is going to be chalky and for good reason. But, the best way to differentiate yourself this week is to slot in Larry “I’m never too old for this shit” Fitzgerald. He’s going to be in the slot. Christian Kirk is out. Fitz is going to eat. Per FO the Bengals are 31st against their opponents #1 WR and second to last in pass DVOA. Over the last few weeks the Bengals have permitted productive games to Diontae Johnson (6-77-1), Cole Beasly (8-48) and Deebo Samuel (5-87-1). Fitz is clearly way ahead of those guys and is set up for the most opportunity in this game. I liked him last week and he had a down game. I’m going right back to that well against a defense that’s more like the people welcoming the aliens in Independence Day. They have good intentions. But, they’re about to be blown up. Hitch your ride to Fitz and watch him go to work.
Zach Ertz ($6000)
The Eagles are back home after getting a little extra rest after week four’s Thursday night win over the Packers. This week they are taking on a Sam Darnold-less New York Jets. The overall expected points currently sit at 43 and a half. This is by no means a sexy game. But, in a situation like this, you must look at usage and talent. Both stick out against the Jets who have yet to face a TE that’s the caliber of Ertz. Not even close. The Jets have only faced Dawson Knox, Demetrius Harris, and Ryan Izzo. This has led to their DVOA (12th vs TE) and aFPA (7.5, 4th) to be totally skewed. While the game total indicates a slow-paced game with not much scoring, we can bank on Ertz being the main target in this offense. Weeks 1-4 his targets were 7, 16, 7 and 8. Look for a floor of 7 to 8 targets this week with a high ceiling and lowered ownership. According to ETR’s current ownership projection he’s hovering around 16%. Not to mention his price will have people running for the hills and paying down to fit their studs in at other positions. Don’t overthink this one. Run towards the chaos and watch Ertz take you to the promise land.
Thanks for checking out my top DraftKings Week 2 GPP stacks and players! Be sure to come back all season and let me help you win money! Follow me @PacingPete on Twitter and check out all our DFS and redraft content at TFA!