TFA Contrary-Ten — Week 6 DFS
The Week 6 DFS main slate is a weird one, with not too many running back plays you can feel comfortable with and ownership going to the KC-HOU and ATL-ARZ games. This will be a fun one for both cash and tournament lineups alike. Good luck!
Matt Ryan (Price: $6400 on Draftkings, $8100 on FanDuel)
I really don’t like playing Matt Ryan in DFS. In years past, it has cost me a TON of money. Not this year, though. If you’ve played Ryan every week, you have been raking in 50/50s and tournaments, alike. He’s gone for over 300 yards in all five games for Atlanta this year. He now gets Arizona who is currently allowing 25.3 fantasy points per game to the QB position. The Cardinals will once again be without cornerback Patrick Peterson so this may be the last time we get to target the Cardinals poor secondary. It really comes down to ownership as Ryan is projected to be way lower owned than I initially thought earlier in the week. Lock in Matt Ryan into any lineup and feel comfortable in running him, especially with the nice “floor” he’s been provided.
4.1 percent on DK
6.4 percent on FD
Kirk Cousins (Price: $5200 on Draftkings, $7000 on FanDuel)
This pay doesn’t make me feel good at all. It actually makes me feel rather queasy. But as discussed on the DFS DegeNation Pod this week, the way you attack Philadelphia is through the air. T The Eagles are allowing the fourth-most Draftkings points to WRs (45.7) and the fifth-most points on Fanduel to WRs (36). This shapes up great for Cousins in tournament lineups as the Vikings have a narrow distribution of targets. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have combined for 53 targets on the season. The rest of the group of wideouts have COMBINED for 10 targets. Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. only have 11 catches on the year, total.
Cousins to Diggs is one of my favorite stacks of the week as your only spending around 20 percent of your salary on both sites.
3.7 percent on DK
7.1 percent on FD
Mark Ingram (Price: $6600 on Draftkings, $7500 FanDuel)
The way you attack Cincinnati is on the ground. No if’s, and’s or but’s about it. They have been abused all season long thus far. Here are the numbers of the lead running backs they’ve faced so far:
David Johnson (week 5): 17 rushes for 91 yards
James Conner (week 4): 10 rushes for 42 yards on the ground (8-83-1 thru the air)
Frank Gore (week 3): 14 rushes for 76 yards and a touchdown
Matt Breida (week 2): 12 rushes for 121 yards
Chris Carson (week 1): 15 rushes for 46 yards and a touchdown (also caught a touchdown)
The trend here is that running backs are putting up points with limited work. Your worry is Ingram might get spelled by Justice Hill and Gus Edwards, but Ingram is in a smash spot IF the Ravens choose to give him most of the work. As stated above, this is a really good rushing spot for Lamar Jackson as well. Mark Ingram while seeing the most carries in the backfield, he’s still losing snaps to Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. What you’re playing Ingram for is his upside when he sees 20 touches (i.e. versus Kansas City)
16.2 percent on DK
24.6 percent on FD
Duke Johnson (Price: $4100 on Draftkings, $5300 on Fanduel)
Note: This play is strictly for Draftkings and other sites where you get 1-point per reception
Everyone and their mother (well at least mine) is talking about this game, and I have yet to hear anyone say Duke Johnson is in play. Let’s go down the list. This game has the highest projected over/under on the week 6 DFS main slate at 55. The way you attack the Chiefs is on the ground as they’ve allowed the second-most yards rushing on this young season (disclaimer – they were allowing the most rushing yards before the New England-New York Giants game on Thursday night). Carlos Hyde is for sure in play as well (narrative street alert – KC cut him in the preseason as said of the DFS DegeNation Pod), and where most of the ownership will go on FanDuel. But there’s leverage here for Duke if Houston decides to find ways to get him involved. He’s seen at least six rush attempts in four of five games this season, and has flirted with double-digit DK outings in back-to-back weeks without scoring a touchdown. If Duke can find the endzone this week and maybe rail off a couple of catches, he could turn in a nice performance.
1.8 percent on DK
2.1 percent on FD
Odell Beckham Jr. (Price: $6800 on Draftkings, $7600 on Fanduel)
An under-owned, underpriced Odell Beckham, Jr. speaks to the reason why I started writing this article. No one is thinking about this Browns offense as they were just embarrassed on Monday Night television. We get this team on a short week at home against a Seattle team that hasn’t shown much promise week after week on the defense side of the ball. Statistically, Seattle is much better defending the run than the pass and find themselves in the top-10 in targets and receptions allowed to the position. OBJ is still seeing no less than six targets per game and has seen his price drop significantly on both Draftkings and FanDuel as a result of not finding pay dirt since Week 2. I’m willing to bank on the “eye test” with Cleveland looking to find unique ways to get him the ball in the first quarter of the San Francisco affair. OBJ has tournament-winning upside every slate he is on.
3.1 percent on DK
4.7 percent on FD
Stefon Diggs (Price: $5900 on Draftkings, $5800 on FanDuel)
This is the week for Stefon Diggs. Right? It has to be…if he cannot splash big plays versus Philly then it might be time to write Diggs off this year. He’s made noise recently of being unhappy with his role in the offense and has been included in numerous trade rumors. I’m of the impression that the Vikings mean what they say when they want to keep him on the team, and this would be the spot.
Go back up to read what I said in why I’m interested in Kirk Cousins. Philadelphia’s secondary is TRASH. They’ve given up the most touchdowns to the position. Their defense is also yielding the sixth-most targets against, meaning teams are going through the air often versus them. Looking back at past history, Diggs put up a monster game last year versus Philly (10-91). I’m planting my flag on Diggs for week 6 DFS GPP teams.
4.3 percent on DK
6.7 percent on FD
Dede Westbrook (Price: $5100 on Draftkings, $5400 FanDuel)
There’s not much to say here. Have Dede Westbrook exposure in your week 6 DFS lineups. He is egregiously mispriced throughout the industry. His match-up versus PJ Williams is dreamy, as he just allowed 7-125-2 to Chris Godwin. Tyler Lockett and Cooper Kupp also went off in coverage of PJ Williams. It’s easy money at this point to take slot wide receivers versus the Saints as long as Williams is still out there.
11.9 percent on DK
8.4 percent on FD
Michael Gallup (Price: $5600 on Draftkings, $6100 on Fanduel)
Did people forget how good Michael Gallup was in his first game back from injury? It seems like it. Yes, Amari Cooper crushed against Green Bay with 40+ fantasy points, but Gallup also finished with right around 30, too (27.3 points on DK). It’s been made clear that Dak can maintain two top-tier wide receivers in this offense. The Cowboys face off against a Gregg-Williams led Jets defense who won’t give up to many easy plays. In games both Cooper and Gallup have suited up this year, the latter has 29 targets to the fomer’s 28 targets. Don’t chase the smash game from Amari (unless stacking with Dak) and go with the safer option in Gallup who has 6+ receptions in each of his three games. He’s in an even better spot if Randall Cobb can’t go.
9.2 percent on DK
19.2 percent on FD
Travis Kelce (Price: $7000 on Draftkings, $7500 on FanDuel)
Sammy Watkins has been downgraded to doubtful for Sunday at the time of writing this article. Tyreek Hill seems like a true-game time decision. The Chiefs are playing hot-hand at running back. The only real option you can trust in the offense right now is Kelce. Now he’s going to cost you to get exposure to him, so it’s hard to play him in full-on game stacks this weekend. And you definitely need to play Mahomes in lineups with Kelce. But there will be so much action in many Week 6 DFS lineups funneled to George Kittle and Austin Hooper, and rightfully so. I’m going to look to pivot off on Fanduel where the pricing is much closer between the three. But his low ownership projections on Draftkings (comparatively to Hooper and Kittle) have me thinking Kelce in GPPs may be the play this week.
11.3 percent on DK
20 percent on FD
Zach Ertz (Price: $5400 on Draftkings, $6600 on FanDuel)
The best to attack the Minnesota defense is to…hope and pray. Ok, no but really in all seriousness, the best way I think is through the tight end position. The Vikings defense ranks 9th in DVOA against the pass and 2nd in DVOA against the run. They are, however, allowing the fourth-most catches (one behind) and the 10th most yards to the tight end position. I mentioned earlier that past history between these two teams had me on Stefon Diggs as a play. Well, last year Ertz went for 10-110-1 in this matchup. Not having Desean Jackson in this matchup I think leans heavy in Ertz’s favor. Tight end plays other than Kittle and Hooper don’t feel great in 50/50’s and cash, but could shoot you up the leaderboards in tournaments.
4.2 percent on DK
4.5 percent on FD
*All projected ownership numbers for the Week 6 DFS TFA Contrary-Ten are from Fantasy Pros DFS tools.
**Week 6 DFS Draftkings $75K Blind Side on Draftkings ($27 entry) Below:
QB: Kirk Cousins
RB1: Mark Ingram
RB2: Lev Bell
WR1: Stefon Diggs
WR2: DeAndre Hopkins
WR3: Dede Westbrook
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Chase Edmonds
**if news comes out early about David Johnson being healthy, I will consider pivoting to Carson, Thielen, and Hooper from Bell, Edmonds and Kelce in hopes of getting a smash game from Kirk Cousins. I will tweet my final lineup.
Follow Ryan Williams on Twitter – @RyanAlexander_W and listen to him and Kevin Steele on the DFS DegeNation Pod released every week that covers a positional breakdown for every DFS main slate of the 2019 season!