In redraft leagues, I’m of the belief that taking a QB before round 8 or 9 is a bad investment. However, in a dynasty setting, finding that franchise quarterback is imperative. Below is a list of QB trade targets that will cost you differing amounts but all of them are primed for success for many years to come.
Derek Carr, Raiders
Derek Carr has experienced an increase in production in each of his first two seasons in the league. Last season he had career highs in touchdowns (32), passing yards (3,987), and completion percentage (64%). Entering his age 25 season, there is still plenty of room to grow. Their offense is trending in the right direction with second-year wide receiver Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Things were certainly not all sunshine and rainbows last season as he experienced a late season collapse. Over the final five weeks of the season, Carr threw 8 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and never had more than 276 yards passing. In 2016, he will need to improve on consistency throughout the season if he wants to be considered a viable week-to-week starter on any fantasy team. One thing is for certain, he has the tools and weapons around him to be an elite fantasy option going forward.
Blake Bortles, Jaguars
Blake Bortles is another player who experienced a big time uptick in production from year one to year two. He finished his sophomore season with 4,428 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, and a completion percentage of 63%. Heading into 2016, Bortles is in the best situation of any of the young quarterbacks in the league with Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Julius Thomas. He should be viewed as a borderline top 5 fantasy quarterback for the foreseeable future, especially with the plethora of weapons at his disposal.
A few items that should be mentioned that pertains to Bortles and his success last season. First, their defense gave up the third most points at a clip of 28 points per game and 375 yards a game which is 9th most. When a team’s defense is this bad it always turns into more opportunities for the offense, which shows in the amount of pass attempts (606) or 37.9 per game which was the 3rd highest in the league. The second factor to consider is when a team is often playing from behind you have to abandon the run game which is illustrated in their run to pass ratio. They ended the season with the third lowest run percentage (36.84).
The Jaguars have already begun improving both the run game and the defense with additions of Malik Jackson, Prince Amukamara, Tashaun Gibson, and running back Chris Ivory. With the additions the team is making it’s logical to think the offense could take a step back in 2015. However, I don’t think Bortles will take a big step back as far as production is concerned. They have too many weapons to ignore, but I could see a more balanced offense in 2016.
Overall, I feel confident in saying that Bortles should be considered a cornerstone of any dynasty team for many years to come.
Marcus Mariota, Titans
The 2015 season gave us a glimpse of the things to come for Marcus Mariota. In 12 games in 2015, he threw for 2,818, 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and held a 66.3 completion percentage, to go along with 255 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Even though his numbers don’t blow you away, when you turn on his tape you see what the future holds for him. Some takeaways from what I saw from him was his accuracy. He is very poised in the pocket and doesn’t get rattled easily, which is impressive considering he was sacked 39 times. One thing that was apparent is that the Titans need to improve their offensive line and continue to add some more weapons for him to succeed. They began that process by trading for Demarco Murray and signing Rishard Matthews. They also have an ultra-talented wide receiver in Dorial Green-Beckham and veteran Kendall Wright. As far as the offensive line is concerned many draft experts have the Titans taking Laremy Tunsil with the first pick in the draft which would make sense for a team that so badly needs to protect their investment. Between Jameis Winston and Mariota, the price tag is likely to be relatively high, although, Mariota would likely be the cheaper option, and one who has just as much potential to be an elite-level quarterback in this league.
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Heading into last season I was a big supporter of Ryan Tannehill. He was trending upward and the team went out and revamped the offense. They added Kenny Stills, Jordan Cameron, Greg Jennings, and drafted DeVante Parker. Not to mention he was also coming off a solid 2014 season where he enjoyed his first 4,000 yard passing season and also had an impressive 27 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. However, he didn’t improve upon his numbers in 2015. His stat line last season was 4,208 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. His numbers were basically identical the last two seasons but he dropped from QB8 in 2014 (295 FP), to QB17 in 2015 (272 FP). On the surface many would lead you to believe that Ryan Tannehill was a complete bust, however, I think with bringing Adam Gase on board as the head coach he is in a position to rebound in a big way in 2016.
Adam Gase has done a tremendous job working with quarterbacks in this league. Hell, he made Jay Cutler look like a solid NFL QB last season. Jay Cutler is known for being a turnover machine, yet, last season under Gase, he was the only QB to not have a game with multiple turnovers. His passer rating of 92.8 was a career high, despite the fact that his top four targets missed a combined 31 games. If Adam Gase can turn around a player like Jay Cutler, then you should certainly believe he can do it with Ryan Tannehill.
With solid weapons like Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Jordan Cameron in place, the offense should take a big step forward under the guidance of one of the smartest offensive minds in football.
One thing is for sure, obtaining Ryan Tannehill shouldn’t take a whole lot at this point and should pay off big time as long as Gase is guiding the ship.
Jameis Winston – Coming off a strong rookie season where he racked up over 4,000 yards through the air and has a strong group of weapons around him. The sky is the limit for Famous Jameis, but It would likely take a big package to pry him away from the player who owns him.
Colin Kaepernick – This is solely based on the idea that the Broncos will indeed make the move to pry him away from San Francisco. This is more of a preemptive strike and not waiting to see where he lands. If he gets traded to Denver, then expect his price to skyrocket. If you currently own Kaepernick, I would certainly hold onto him and see exactly what trade offers come in for him.
Robert Griffin III – He’s a complete unknown at this point. However, if he lands in the right situation, he could be the bounceback player of the year.