Welcome to the first edition of Dynasty Risers and Fallers! In this article, I’m going to highlight a handful of players who I believe saw their dynasty stock change based off the previous week. At the end, you’ll also get a handful of dynasty waiver wire pickups. Let’s jump right into my Week 1 Dynasty Risers and Fallers.
Josh Allen, QB BUF
Allen had a monster game on the ground and through the air. Long stigmatized for his inaccuracy, the gunslinger finished Week 1 with 312 passing yards, 57 rushing yards, 3 total Touchdowns (1 Rush), and 71 % completion percentage. If he can continue to throw the ball accurately, he has overall QB1 upside for 2020. If you have him on any of your rosters, start him with confidence.
SF Buy Price – Early 2021 1st or 2 random 1sts
SF Sell Price – Multiple 1sts
Josh Jacobs, RB OAK
What if I told you that the best pass-catching back in the 2019 class was finally being used in the passing game? With a career-high 6 targets, Jacobs may have silenced some doubters of his impressive 2019 rookie campaign. He is obviously the focal point of the Raider offense and had a monster game with 25 carries, 93 yards, and 3 touchdowns (!!!). He also tacked on 4 receptions for 43 yards receiving. If he continues to get those 3-5 receptions a game, he has legit top 5 upside at running back.
Buy Price – 3 1sts
Sell Price – 4 1sts
Nyheim Hines, RB IND
Philip Rivers LOVES to throw to his running backs. This isn’t a news flash – just a reminder. As Austin Ekeler knows all too well, being the third-down back for Philip Rivers leads to a ton of opportunity. Rivers targeted his backs 19 times (41%) against the Jaguars and that isn’t a fluke stat. It’s just what he does, check down.. after check down.. after check down. Hines ended up with 8 receptions on 8 targets with 45 yards receiving, and a touchdown through the air along with 7 carries, 28 yards rushing, and another touchdown on the ground. With Rivers as his QB and Marlon Mack out of the picture, I see Hines being a high-end RB2 for the rest of the season in PPR leagues.
Buy Price – Early 2021 2nd
Sell Price – Late 1st
Darius Slayton, WR NYG
A guy that I couldn’t talk myself into targeting this offseason but already regret that decision this year. He tied with Saquon Barkley for the team lead in targets and finished with 6 receptions, 102 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He was the only thing really going for the Giants on Monday night against the Steelers. Daniel Jones just seems to love the guy and this game proved he wasn’t a rookie fluke. Low-end WR1 is completely possible.
Buy Price – Mid 2021 1st
Sell Price – 2 1sts
Corey Davis, WR TEN
What? This name can’t be correct. I’m sorry but this isn’t a joke. Davis had his first 100-yard game since 2018 and lead the team in targets. He looked quick and appeared to be an early read on most plays for Tannehill. The 2017 5th overall pick finally appeared to be a part of the game plan instead of just an upfield blocker for Henry. This has to be rewarding for the dynasty owners that held onto him for so long after being a bust his first 3 seasons. He might be this season’s DeVante Parker award winner and I fully expect him to finish with his first 1000 yard season.
Buy Price – Late 2nd
Sell Price – 2 2nds or late 1st
Noah Fant, TE DEN & TJ Hockenson, TE DET
Studs, Studs, Studs! If you have either of these two on your squads, give yourself a crisp high five and enjoy the next 10 years. These guys are the next wave of elite TE’s and both have great offenses to prove it. Fant had a 5/81/1 line on 6 targets while Hock had 5/56/1 on 5 targets. That makes them the TE3 and TE5 this year after week 1. Some will argue that they both had favorable target shares due to their team’s WR1 being out but I don’t think their roles would be much different without without Sutton/Golladay. I see these guys both finishing in the top 8 at their position and are only a year or two away from being difference makers.
Buy Price – Mid 2021 1st
Sell Price – Early 1st or 2 random 1sts
Baker Mayfield, QB CLE
Woooooof. Maybe it’s the Ravens defense but the Browns looked awful yet again week 1. They couldn’t get first downs through the air and Baker couldn’t complete a pass to save his life. At barely over 50% completions, Baker has become what everyone thought Josh Allen would be – an inaccurate QB bust. He still has 15 games to prove he belongs in this league but I might be trying to get rid of him sooner rather than later.
SF Buy Price – Late 1st
SF Sell Price – Any 1st
LeVeon Bell, RB NYJ
It’s not just time to worry on Bell, it might be time to panic and sink the ship. He hasn’t been the same since his last snap in Pittsburgh and now he has an injury and a coaching staff that hates him. Overpaid and underproductive since 2019, Bell will be entering his 29th year on earth in 2021 and likely looking for a job as a backup. With only 3.2 ypc since joining the Jets, it’s not like this is coming as a surprise. My advice would be to find the Frank Gore owner and see if he will accept Bell in a trade. Get out while you still can.
Buy Price – Any 3rd
Sell Price – Any 2nd
Nick Chubb, RB CLE
Yes, he is still really good. Yes, he has over 5 ypc for his career and had 6 ypc on Sunday. Yes, he is a top 10 talent in this league but unfortunately, he might not be the most talented RB on the Browns. It’s time to get real about that backfield. At best it’s a 50/50 timeshare with Hunt, and Chubb isn’t on the field for the passing downs. You won’t be able to convince me it’s not ownership bias telling you otherwise. Chubb got out-snapped, out-carried, and out-targeted by Hunt week 1 and it wasn’t even close – 17 touches to 11. I wouldn’t be expecting an RB1 finish from Chubb in 2020 and if you can still get top 30 value for him you should try to do so. I don’t see him maintaining his current value in 2020 without an injury to Hunt. The game script the Browns had isn’t going to change much – they are likely to play from behind and use the passing down RB.
Buy Price – Mid to late 1st
Sell Price – Multiple random 1sts
Christian Kirk, WR ARI
There just aren’t enough targets to go around in Arizona. Hopkins will command targets coming his way thanks to his mega-deal and Fitz will always get the quick looks because he plays in the slot. He struggled week 1 with only 1 reception for zero yards on 5 targets. The silver lining is that he was tied for 2nd on the team with 5 targets but none were deep targets and he had 2 drops. Kirk is going to have good games here and there but I am not counting on him to be in any starting lineups for the rest of the year.
Buy Price – Early 2nd
Sell Price – Any 1st
Odell Beckham Jr, WR CLE
This is starting to look like you should be worried about all the Browns. This is true, especially for OBJ. The former dynasty 1.01 hasn’t had a great season since 2016 and has been a major disappointment since being traded to Cleveland. Despite 10 targets and playing the entire game from behind, OBJ ended up with only 3 catches and 22 yards. Game script will probably be favorable going forward but until he gets on the same page with Mayfield the only Brown I am starting is Jarvis Landry. The true Cleveland WR1.
Buy Price – Late 1st
Sell Price – Early to Mid 2021 1st
Zach Ertz, TE PHI
For the same reasons I am fading Chubb, I am also fading Ertz. He might not be the best at his position on his own team. Goedert had a monster game and the Eagles have added a ton of weapons for Wentz. Ertz has been the benefactor of 3 straight seasons without any depth or talent at WR to compete with. Unfortunately for him, he has a young stud TE that will be taking his targets along with Reagor and Jackson. He is really good but at 29 and due to get paid soon, the Eagles could move on and Ertz could find a hard time getting the target share he has been used to.
Buy Price – Early 2nd
Sell Price – Late 1st
Dynasty Waiver Pick-Ups of the week:
1. Myles Gaskin, RB MIA – He might not be useful in 2021 but get him now and wait for a good game to flip him to the Jordan Howard owner.
2. Russell Gage, WR ATL – Matt Ryan is going to be passing a ton and Gage appears locked in as the 3rd target in that offense. He could be good for a spot start during bye weeks.
3. Logan Thomas, TE WAS – 8 targets in an offense with little competition. He could be a TE1 for the rest of the season and a good flip sale midseason if you want to stock up on future rookie picks
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