Sadly, the NFL regular season and therefore the fantasy regular season has come to a close. However, in dynasty leagues, the preparation never stops. At The Fantasy Authority, we will take you through a series of veteran players to look at heading into the 2020 season. Many of these guys may have destroyed your seasons early or have a negative stigma attached. But as you know, Dynasty Fantasy Football is about more than just one season at a time. To kick the series off, let’s take a look at the top 5 dynasty quarterbacks to trade for heading into the 2020 Season.
Note: Obviously, if you can get Mahomes or Watson, etc then do it. The following dynasty quarterbacks won’t cost you much but can win you a fantasy championship.
Jameis Winston (2020 Free Agent)
Jameis Winston sits atop my list of the top dynasty quarterbacks to target this offseason for several reasons. Despite being a turnover machine, Winston possesses something that not many QBs in the NFL have. The Bucs true pass-first coaching staff has very little interest in moving the ball on the ground. Winston was the first QB in NFL history to throw for 30+ touchdowns and 30+ interceptions. Yet, he led the league in passing yards (5,109), dropbacks (708) and attempts (626). He also finished 2nd in TDs with 33, aDOT (average depth of target) of 10.9, and despite 30 INTs and 11 fumbles, he finished with the 2nd most fantasy points at the position.
What has me most interested was his growth throughout the season. Through the first 9 weeks of 2019, Winston threw the 5th most TDs, 7th most yards, and had the 7th most fantasy points. Changes were made in the second half of the season where he had the most yards, highest aDOT, and third-most TDs. All of these numbers came despite having the 27th-ranked completion percentage. This was Winston’s first season under Bruce Arians and barring a breakdown in contract negotiations this offseason, this combo should let it fly again.
If we had to guess, Tampa will resign the turnover specialist. But if he starts demanding “Russell Wilson” money we may need to keep an eye on him. If he remains a Buccaneer there is a good chance Winston can repeat these numbers again.
Ryan Tannehill (2020 Free Agent)
Ryan Tannehill was a highly touted quarterback prospect out of Texas A&M back in 2012. The Dolphins made their selection hoping he’d be the franchise QB they had been searching for. Unfortunately for the Dolphins that never panned out. Through the first four years of his career, the first-round QB would miss just four games. Since 2016 the former Aggie missed a total of 27 games including all of 2017. This would force the Dolphins’ hand, who ultimately chose to move on. Enter the Tennessee Titans who traded for and then signed Tannehill to a one-year contract with expectations that he’d back up Mariota.
However, after starting 2-3 the Titans would make a switch Week 6 against the Broncos. Tannehill would lead the Titans to a 6-1 record over the next seven games. A loss to the Texans ultimately knocked them out of contention for the divisional crown, but a week 17 win over the same Texans team clinched a wild card spot.
From Weeks 7 through 17, Tannehill was very impressive. During this time, Tannehill finished as the 3rd best fantasy QB in the league. He threw for the 8th-best adjusted completion percentage, 8th-most yards, and the 3rd most TDs. Tannehill added 4 more touchdowns on the ground and the 10th most rushing yards for a QB during that time as well.
Like Winston, Tannehill is a free agent this offseason. The Titans are likely to sign him long term or at the least place him on the franchise tag. Nevertheless, if he hits the open market you’ll need to keep an eye on his situation to determine his value. In the end, things are exciting in Tennessee who are just one game away from the Super Bowl.
If Tannehill resigns he could be one of the best dynasty quarterbacks to target this off-season.
Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns)
Baker Mayfield may be one of the easiest quarterbacks to acquire in dynasty this year. Through the first nine weeks of the season, Baker had 4 weeks of less than 10 fantasy points and another week was a bye. At no point during that stretch did he reach 20 points which was a huge cause for concern. But then the second half of the season kicked off and Baker seemed like a completely different player.
From week 10 on, Baker would finish as the 10th best QB in fantasy production and 9th in points per drop back. Mayfield increased his points per drop back by .12 and was tied for 5th in touchdowns thrown. Although he was 14th in passing yards, he finished 4th in aDOT. And as the team began to evolve he increased his end zone passing percentage by nearly 5%.
All in all, last season was a down year for the former #1 pick. Baker burst onto the scene in 2018 and with loud play came a loudmouth and with that came high expectations. Baker has all the tools to meet those expectations and showed bursts and flashes of that down the stretch. However, many fantasy owners are going to overlook the collegiate star who left a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths.
There is no telling what this offense will look like next year. With OBJ asking for a trade, Kareem Hunt a free agent, and a new head coach, a lot of unknowns await Cleveland. Those questions will undoubtedly drop his value and make him quite easy to acquire. If he can show anything close to the production he had in 2018 he’ll be well worth the cost.
Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
Daniel Jones of the New York Football Giants is the next man on my list of dynasty quarterbacks to target. To begin the 2019 season, I predicted that Jones would finish as a top 15 fantasy QB. According to PFF.com, Jones finished exactly 15th with 222.1 fantasy points on the season. The first half of the year wasn’t the best for the first-round selection out of Duke, as he was responsible for eight interceptions and ten fumbles. However, he threw for over 1600 yards, 11 touchdowns and ran for two more.
The second-half of football is what has me the most excited for his future. Although he played in three fewer games, he limited both his interceptions and fumbles. He also increased his fantasy points per drop back by .07 at that time. His final three games were amazing too. In that span, he finished 7th in fantasy points, increased his aDOT by nearly three yards and threw almost 25% of his total yards during that final stretch of the season.
The Giants, like the Browns with Baker above, are going through a facelift (again). The Giants have recently hired Joe Judge to take over for Pat Shurmur and brought in Jason Garret as OC. There is too much unknown about Joe Judge, but the one thing we know for sure is that he has passion and fire to coach this team and this QB. Garrett, on the other hand, has had some pretty successful QBs over his last 10 years as both Tony Romo and Dak Prescott have been ranked in the top half at the position. The unknown should drive Jones’ price tag down a bit, but if he can continue to grow under the new regime he’ll be an excellent option moving forward.
Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago Bears)
Trubisky is absolutely no different than the other dynasty quarterbacks above. With question marks surrounding both his talent and decision-making, Trubisky is going to cost you next to nothing to acquire.
Trubisky finished as the 26th best fantasy QB in 2019, most of which came because of his first-half numbers. During the first 9 weeks of the season, the former Tar Heel QB ranked 33rd among QBs. To put that into comparison with the final eight games of the season, Trubisky was the 8th best QB. Whether something clicked or the offense changed, there was a massive difference for the QB. During this stretch of football, Mitch added 75 more fantasy points than he had in the previous half. He increased in fantasy points per drop back by nearly .2 and added a full yard to his aDOT. He would also attempt 84 more passes, gain 700 more yards, and throw for 7 more touchdowns than he did in the first half.
There have been rumors the Bears brass may be looking to move on from Trubisky’s inconsistent play. However, with a top 15 finish in 2018 and top 10 to close out 2019 he may have turned the corner. Keep your eyes and ears pinned to the news alerts as the season progresses. If you can get a guy that cheap with top 10 production upside, why wouldn’t you take a flier?